Help me understand this one

I'm showing results, just because this is more about the other guy.

What % of the time is Ax betting this turn?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($230.55)
UTG+1 ($354)
Fnord ($358.45)
MP2 ($200)
MP3 ($104.80)
CO ($197)
Button ($197)
SB ($301)
BB ($166.10)

Preflop: Fnord is MP1 with A, K.
2 folds, Fnord raises to $7, 1 fold, MP3 calls $7, 4 folds.

Flop: ($17) 6, A, 2 (2 players)
Fnord bets $12, MP3 calls $12.

Turn: ($41) 4 (2 players)
Fnord checks, MP3 checks.

River: ($41) J (2 players)
Fnord bets $20, MP3 calls $20.

Final Pot: $81

Results in white below:
Fnord has As Kc (one pair, aces).
MP3 has Qh Ac (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Fnord wins $81.

About 99% of the time. I can't imagine why in the world he checked that turn.

I think a weaker ace than you (AQ-A10) only bets the turn about 40% of the time. Even lower kicker, I think it is about 20-30%. I'm tempted to bet/call turn and push river for value given stacks.

Originally Posted by Deanglow

I think a weaker ace than you (AQ-A10) only bets the turn about 40% of the time. Even lower kicker, I think it is about 20-30%. I'm tempted to bet/call turn and push river for value given stacks.

I disagree with this. Maybe that's how you play but I think a lot of ops will call flop bet and bet into weakness shown on turn 70+% of the time. Were you looking for a bluff Fnord or controlling for set/draw hit?

Hmmm, on second thought maybe 50+% because it's FR fwiw

I like his play, many times the preflop raiser who has TT-KK will c/b when the A hits, he has no reason to fold and was probably going to raise you on the river except that is a bad river so he just called. You have a wide range of hands here that he beats so i think he will just let you donate and in the rare case you have AK he excepts losing.

I don't mind the check behind in the right spot. what hands are calling that he is beating, a flush draw, maybe a big pair that doesn't believe him, not much else. a turn bet will commit him, and when you raise over he has to call, and will be behind more often than not. He can call/bet the river wider than the turn because of the turn check.

I am curious about the river bet by you. Is it a block, a value bet, or a combination of both? I would have probably lost a bit of nerve with the J on the river (not the fact that it was a spade, but that it usually only leaves AQ and maybe AT behind us). Or does he have more aces in his range than that?

I play it the same as villain in FR. You could be c-betting without an A, so I get no value if I fire checked to and you fold. Check through call a reasonable bet on the river gets me to a cheap showdown if I'm dominated (I expect you to have AK here a lot in FR) and extracts more from AT type hands. If you check the river as well, I bet.

For shits and giggles:

1)
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($230.55)
UTG+1 ($354)
Fnord ($358.45)
MP2 ($200)
MP3 ($104.80)
CO ($197)
Button ($197)
SB ($301)
BB ($166.10)

Preflop: Fnord is MP1 with A, K.
2 folds, Fnord raises to $7, 1 fold, MP3 raises to $24, Fnord ???



2)
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($230.55)
UTG+1 ($354)
Fnord ($358.45)
MP2 ($200)
MP3 ($104.80)
CO ($197)
Button ($197)
SB ($301)
BB ($166.10)

Preflop: Fnord is MP1 with A, K.
2 folds, Fnord raises to $7, 1 fold, MP3 calls $7, 4 folds.

Flop: ($17) 6, A, 2 (2 players)
Fnord bets $12, MP3 raises to $42, Fnord ???

What are MP3's stats on hand 2, this could be anything from AQ trying to figure out where he's at, I'm not putting him on a set yet, or depending on his stats a very very aggressive flush draw trying to take the pot down right now.

I like his play too, just one of those "I can't believe that fucker ran an expert line against me" moments. Also, his expected line with Ax has a pretty big effect on how often I try to c/r bomb the turn.

MP just stat down a couple orbits ago. 20%ish VP$IP but his buy-in size and cold call of my raise both suggest he's not very good.

He unknowingly played it great post, but you didn't. He calls flop with a piece much more often than with something stupid, and since he's midstacked and a likely donk he calls down with that piece.

Value crai vs float is very hard to figure out how to do correctly vs non-spewtards.