A-high flush draw (200NL)

Looking over this hand in poker stove made me re-evaluate how much credit to give to suited aces and any other Ax hand that makes an A-high flush draw. I can't find a hand short of a set that I'm not even money against. At the time I thought "well, he's short, so I'm sure I'm getting good odds" but now it seems it's mathematically correct to stack off against even a full-buyin stack if they aren't an "over-value-the-crap-out-0f-suited-cards" type of player. Thoughts?

Only had 20 hands on villian; 20/9/1.25

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($60.25)
UTG+1 ($209.55)
MP1 ($299.15)
MP2 ($216.55)
MP3 ($148.10)
CO ($195)
Hero ($204.75)
SB ($200)
BB ($190.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, A. UTG posts a blind of $2.
5 folds, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, UTG (poster) calls $4.

Flop: ($13) 2, 5, 6 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $10, UTG raises to $54.25 (All-In), Hero calls $44.25.

Turn: ($121.50) 2 (3 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($121.50) 5 (3 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $121.50

idk where youre getting your numbers from but we're behind everything, only slightly behind one pair. we're getting about 2:1 though so this is a call.

Let me elaborate:
Given the limp/call preflop UTG, I'm putting him on a mid-strength A (about like mine), a pocket pair, or two broadway cards. Against the latter two, my ace makes my hand as well as the flush. Against a bigger ace, my 8 makes my hand. So I'm granting 12 outs most of the time when he doesn't have a set or better here, occasionally with myself ahead of a broadway-based flush draw.

Occasionally, he can certainly have a straight or a flush, leaving me drawing to 9 or 7 outs. However I think those instances are balanced out by the times I'm ahead against broadway cards.

So again, against his likely holdings IMO, I believe I have 12 outs. Which makes me near even money. Which makes me want to play a big pot if I have good odds (I do) or good fold equity.

Originally Posted by JeffreyGB

Let me elaborate:
Given the limp/call preflop UTG, I'm putting him on a mid-strength A (about like mine), a pocket pair, or two broadway cards.

good analysis, but what is this player c/r allin with? a random ace or QJ? the only thing youre ahead of is air. without a read you dont want to be calling here with less than 2:1. his range is an overpair which youre slightly behind, a straight which your a 2:1 dog, a set which youre about a 2 1/2:1 dog, 2 pairs which youre a 2:1 dog, or air which youre way ahead of, slightly behind a bigger ace though.

i forgot about a made flush which we're a 2 1/2:1 dog against.

Originally Posted by Penfold

Originally Posted by JeffreyGB

Let me elaborate:
Given the limp/call preflop UTG, I'm putting him on a mid-strength A (about like mine), a pocket pair, or two broadway cards.

good analysis, but what is this player c/r allin with? a random ace or QJ?

I think he could easily do it on this board with a random Ax that made a pair, with KQ/KJ/QJ/JT if one is a club, or with virtually any pocket pair. As above, I think it's a decent balance to remove the range of hands I'm crushing and remove the range of hands making straights/flushes (mostly the same hands but suited in clubs). That leaves hands that I'm basically even with and sets.

Full stacks will generally have a stronger preflop calling range and a much stronger pushing range. Given that you have the A high draw, a semibluff push from most full stacks is very unlikely. Given stack sizes are 10x the pot I think you are up against 2pair+ alot Vs a normal 100NL full stack (cant talk about 200NL since ive never played there) so I think you can fold.

Shortie has a much weaker range including some stuff we are ahead of. We are also getting better odds so the call is fine.

Originally Posted by Pelion

Full stacks will generally have a stronger preflop calling range and a much stronger pushing range. Given that you have the A high draw, a semibluff push from most full stacks is very unlikely. Given stack sizes are 10x the pot I think you are up against 2pair+ alot Vs a normal 100NL full stack (cant talk about 200NL since ive never played there) so I think you can fold.

I'm confused...what hands are you thinking a player is calling with preflop that makes 2pr+ here? I see some 65s possibility (unlikely but plausible) and 66/55/33. I don't see much else. Can we agree that it's just as likely he plays this way with 99-JJ as 66/55/33/65s (meaning that 99-JJ is more likely since he has more ways to make them, not to mention 22, 44, 77, 88, QQ occasionally...).

What range are you giving him (even if he has a full stack)?