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 Originally Posted by jessyj
Originally Posted by Illfavor
The semibluff bluff needs to work 56% of the time based on FE alone. If his preflop range is 55+, AQ+ you fold out 32 combos of ovecards and 49 combos of pairs/sets/SDs stay in, which is 40% of his range, plus our 36% equity when called, so this is a +EV bluff.
This is assuming a 100% cbet though, which is a bad assumption.
His EP range is stronger and probably more likely to be cbet. If you don't think he cbets any non-pair hands then obviously just call, but if you leave out AQ of his cbetting range this is still a +EV bluff. You would have to assume he c/f all overs here for the bluff to be bad.
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