|
You know, I didn't want to comment on the river play too much for a lot of reasons. First, to some extent it's a matter of style. Betting again on the river in these situations will add some extra variance to your bankroll...maybe it's something that will work for you and maybe not. You would need to be good at picking the right spots and the opps to do it against. Maybe sometimes they made a better hand, maybe sometimes they didn't. Maybe you're against an opp who can fold a baby flush, but I think you've probably seen your fair share of people at these stakes that are willing to go all in with any flush, and the AK of diamonds is already out there so a smaller flush has a lot less to worry about. Which brings us to another unknown factor (by us) - that we don't have the reads on this guy. Is he a stupid chaser or just a 'somewhat stupid' chaser, or not much of a chaser at all? Has he been calling all kinds of flop and turn bets and folding on the river? Has he been repping made hands and pushing people out on scare cards or later streets? It's pretty safe for him to assume you don't have a flush based on your play unless you've been shown at this table to bet your draws like this. Have you? And it's pretty safe for you to assume he does have a flush or straight a good portion of the time, if for no other reason than it's flush chasing stakes...check, call, check, call, check. It's up to you to decide what you want to do -if- he's made a hand, and I don't think it's a textbook answer quite like you're asking for.
I see no point in making a bet you can 'get away from' ($4 in your example) because it's bad business. Make that bet when you have the flush not when you don't, because, combined with your previous betting it implies that you don't. I also don't see a point in putting yourself in a situation where you "have to" call a raise because of pot odds. If you've got pot odds to do that then you have pot odds to check behind. If you're going for a river bet you want to have a reason why, and that reason should point toward winning the pot. If he'll fold to a $4 bet he'll fold to a 1/2 pot bet or greater, and I'd lean toward greater if you don't want a call. If he raises the latter, what is your reasoning for calling again? Isn't this the same thing as the guy who does not know how to ever lay down AA? You bet the way you did in this hand to - A) try to win it and charge for the draw, and B) to get the information you needed to know when you're probably beat and not lose any unnecessary amount of your stack. Why throw that away and revert back to playing on pure speculation? Maybe there's an answer, I don't know.
Let's not forget there are (a couple) other hands, slowplayed, or really stupidly played (in case of 99) that still beat you besides a flush. These are actually the hands I want to be up against, plus the straight, if I'm betting the river (hoping for a fold) along with the odd AK, Ax, 75, 55, etc. (hoping for a call). My preference, if you're going to do it, is to make a bet that you 'cannot get away from,' and then get the hell away from it anyway if you're forced to put the rest of your stack in (except the $1 you cover him by, or whatever). It sounds and looks a little weak, and it is weak - but without any other reads, plus the fact that I'll simply get called by a hand that beats me a lot of the time, this is exactly why I wouldn't personally do it in the first place. I write too much. Good day.
|