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 Originally Posted by EasyT
Thanks Lukie.
I understand more of what is behind your thinking on my flop bet.
Just because I do the min-raise with position on a draw and works a decent % of the time, doesn't mean this move can't be improved upon. I can agree that a larger raise stands a better chance of getting a fold/call-check. I can also agree that a bigger raise gets a bigger commitment from the opponent who calls it.
Since we're discussing:
Suppose I bet $12 (enough? or go up $15?) back at him.
And he just calls.
Suppose the turn misses and he checks into me.
Just check behind, see the river and then drop the hammer if I hit?
If I keep betting into him with my 6-high, and miss, I'm going to look pretty foolish mucking to a $2 bet on the river. I don't think I can bet the turn if I miss, unless I know my opponent to be weak.
EasyT
Well, if you are genuinely interested in discussing the hand, I think the most logical place to start is preflop. The standard response here on FTR would be 'fold preflop.', given the min-raise UTG, your position.. 1 right of the CO, lack of players entering the pot in front of you, and the possibility of a player behind you on the CO or OTB entering the hand. If the 2 players behind you are tight, I like the call. It's important that you have the button post-flop when you play garbage hands like SC's.
Villain puts out a bet on the flop slightly more then pot size, probably fearing those diamonds. It still looks like a c-bet on that flop though.. 439 2 suited. Your opponent almost definately has overcards or an overpair here, You are behind, but the favorite, against both.
When you raise here, raise to at least $12. Forget what your opponent had right now. If he has overcards, you almost certainly get a fold. If he has an overpair you may get a call, push/reraise, or a fold. Your opponent can't really put you on a hand at this point, you could be holding 33, 44, 99, overcard flush draw, flush draw, OESD, OESFD, or a positional raise with any 2.
Like I said, if he is c-betting with overcards, the hand ends here. He may fold an overpair here but most won't. Although If I'm holding an overpair in his situation, I think about all the stacks I have taken raising my flopped set in position . Just something to think about.
If he pushes here, you have to call. This isn't how you would want the hand to play out (ideally you would be the one pushing), but it is definately +EV and a must-call.
[edit: ideally you would get a fold, or you would be able to take your opponent's stack if you hit, and get out of the hand reasonably cheap if you miss. However, if all your money is going in on the flop, ideally yours would go in first so you still have folding equity.]
Now let's say he calls, and you miss the turn. He checks to you, I check behind here more often then not. If I think I can take the pot down firing out again, I do that. More times then not though, I think it's best to take your free card that you bought with your flop raise.
If you hit your straight or flush on the turn, bet it out. Look to get him AI by the river.
Anyway, let's say he calls your flop raise, you miss the flop, and he bets out on the turn. This situation becomes more tricky now. Just evaluate your pot odds and implied odds and go from there. Is he going to pay you off if you hit? Is he more likely to pay off the straight then the flush? Without looking at the pot size and stack sizes (I forgot while writing this mega-essay on your 1 hand ), you can probably call a reasonable bet on the turn and have it be +EV if you can take his stack on the river. I'm going to bed now.. I've been rambling on about this hand forever..
edit: also, emailing your opponent and appologizing (sp?) for 'suckout' was classy, but not really necessary. First.. bad beats happen. It's part of poker. Second, this wasn't even a bad beat, the money went in when you were the favorite in the hand. I assume a diamond, 2, or 7 hit, but it woulda been so much more badass if you hit running 2 pair.
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