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How Big Does A Draw Have To Be?

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  1. #1

    Default How Big Does A Draw Have To Be?

    Hi. I'm posting a hand where I raised with a nice draw and got pushed at, all-in. I called here, and I'm not posting the results, because that's not the issue or the question. I know I'm beat unless my hand improves, and even with all those outs do you lay this down? Who's the favorite in this hand? If my outs are clean, what are my odds of winning this hand?
    ***** Hand History for Game 2857387969 *****
    $50 NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, October 19, 01:40:05 EDT 2005
    Table Table 36812 (Real Money)
    Seat 5 is the button
    Total number of players : 9
    Seat 4: Lucky___Luke ( $95.25 )
    Seat 3: STAAGIE ( $49.30 )
    Seat 5: PigeonsRU ( $52.35 )
    Seat 10: Itz2Easy ( $44.75 )
    Seat 9: ep42euro ( $62.35 )
    Seat 8: nairbb ( $48.70 )
    Seat 1: ejeffw ( $52.65 )
    Seat 7: Ernman64 ( $17.95 )
    Seat 6: krlovegreen ( $48 )
    krlovegreen posts small blind [$0.25].
    Ernman64 posts big blind [$0.50].
    ** Dealing down cards **
    Dealt to STAAGIE [ 6d 5d ]
    nairbb folds.
    ep42euro raises [$1].
    Itz2Easy folds.
    ejeffw folds.
    STAAGIE calls [$1].
    Lucky___Luke folds.
    PigeonsRU folds.
    krlovegreen calls [$0.75].
    Ernman64 folds.
    ** Dealing Flop ** [ 4d, 3d, 9c ]
    krlovegreen checks.
    ep42euro bets [$4].
    STAAGIE raises [$8].
    krlovegreen folds.
    ep42euro is all-In.
    bluffyvampir has joined the table.
    STAAGIE is all-In.
    ...
    ...
    How bad is this all-in call? Good/Fair/Bad/Rediculous.
  2. #2
    With that many outs its 50/50 to hit the hand when seeing both the turn and the river, so it's an 'even money' call. Its definitely a gamble but a good one I think, because if you hit you'll win a big pot.

    Your opponent likely has an overpair or a set and is afraid of the draws.
  3. #3
    You're ahead against the overpair(but basicly even if they hold a diamond), but behind against the set(esp if they hold a diamond). You're also behind to two pair.

    So i'd say you have to call if you put them on an overpair.

    Tricky one. I'd probably fold it.
  4. #4
    So you put $9 in and want to know if you should call off another $40? I would lay this down for such a price. If he had like $25 and I had like $70 I would call and be fine with losing. I will not chase for my whole stack in cash game, especially when my investment up to that point was so minimal. This is one of those times I fold and say to my opponent "Damn nice bet, I had a huge draw."

    It's hard to lay something like this down, but it goes a long way in the mental discipline department to do so. Think of it as reverse tilt. It will make you play sharper throughout the remainder of your session to make such a difficult laydown at this point. You'll feel more confident and probably play better. Those are the invisible benefits.
    It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
    Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
  5. #5
    im getting odds, so i call.
  6. #6
    Lukie's Avatar
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    Default Re: How Big Does A Draw Have To Be?

    Quote Originally Posted by EasyT
    How bad is this all-in call? Good/Fair/Bad/Rediculous.
    I think the min-raise on the flop was ridiculous. If you are going to raise this hand, raise it harder- it's unlikely that your opponent is going to fold to a min-raise here. And it's not like you are trying to build the pot with a monster by min-raising here (not that I recommend doing that). If you raise harder and he still comes over the top, then you are probably going to have to call that. As it was played, I think the call was ok. In this situation though you are trying to get your money in first, which is another reason you want to raise harder here if that is what you are going to do.
  7. #7

    Default Re: How Big Does A Draw Have To Be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lukie
    Quote Originally Posted by EasyT
    How bad is this all-in call? Good/Fair/Bad/Rediculous.
    I think the min-raise on the flop was ridiculous. If you are going to raise this hand, raise it harder- it's unlikely that your opponent is going to fold to a min-raise here. And it's not like you are trying to build the pot with a monster by min-raising here (not that I recommend doing that). If you raise harder and he still comes over the top, then you are probably going to have to call that. As it was played, I think the call was ok. In this situation though you are trying to get your money in first, which is another reason you want to raise harder here if that is what you are going to do.
    I'm going to respectfully disagree. I want to try to take control of this hand cheaply. It didn't work here because of his holdings, but this works ALL THE TIME at NL50/NL100. They'll call and then check to you 40% of the time on the turn and you can bet hard or take a free card, depending.

    I almost never flat-call a draw. Usually I fold them, but if not, a small raise disguises your hand, eliminates the riff-raff, and gets you information about how much someone likes his hand. This draw was good enough for the raise here.

    I just didn't listen to the information I got in response.

    Which is my question: How BAD a call is this? I know it's not a GOOD call. So far it seems like there's differing opinions. I was sorta looking for some math genius to figure out how many times/100 I win this confrontation.

    If it helps, my opponent has an overpair, and not a set. All my outs are clean.

    EasyT
  8. #8

    Default Re: How Big Does A Draw Have To Be?

    Quote Originally Posted by EasyT

    Which is my question: How BAD a call is this? I know it's not a GOOD call. So far it seems like there's differing opinions. I was sorta looking for some math genius to figure out how many times/100 I win this confrontation.

    If it helps, my opponent has an overpair, and not a set. All my outs are clean.

    EasyT
    If all your outs are live, your 50% to make the hand when seeing both the turn and the river. So you're effectively getting 1 to 1 odds. If you're going to gamble, this is the spot to do it in.
  9. #9

    Default Re: How Big Does A Draw Have To Be?

    Quote Originally Posted by EasyT
    How BAD a call is this? I know it's not a GOOD call. So far it seems like there's differing opinions. I was sorta looking for some math genius to figure out how many times/100 I win this confrontation.

    If it helps, my opponent has an overpair, and not a set. All my outs are clean.

    EasyT
    Worst case scenario, he has 9d9x, when you'd be 2:3 underdog (pokerstove.com). However the pot odds are almost exactly 2:3 so this is definitely +ev call, because he doesn't have 9d9x every time..
  10. #10
    Doesn't take a math genius.
    If he has an overpair with no diamond you have 9 flush outs and 6 straight outs for a total of 15 outs making you about a 55% favorite.
    To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
  11. #11
    cartilago77's Avatar
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    How much bigger do you want it to be?
  12. #12
    Lukie's Avatar
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    Default Re: How Big Does A Draw Have To Be?

    Quote Originally Posted by EasyT
    Quote Originally Posted by Lukie
    Quote Originally Posted by EasyT
    How bad is this all-in call? Good/Fair/Bad/Rediculous.
    I think the min-raise on the flop was ridiculous. If you are going to raise this hand, raise it harder- it's unlikely that your opponent is going to fold to a min-raise here. And it's not like you are trying to build the pot with a monster by min-raising here (not that I recommend doing that). If you raise harder and he still comes over the top, then you are probably going to have to call that. As it was played, I think the call was ok. In this situation though you are trying to get your money in first, which is another reason you want to raise harder here if that is what you are going to do.
    I'm going to respectfully disagree. I want to try to take control of this hand cheaply. It didn't work here because of his holdings, but this works ALL THE TIME at NL50/NL100. They'll call and then check to you 40% of the time on the turn and you can bet hard or take a free card, depending.

    I almost never flat-call a draw. Usually I fold them, but if not, a small raise disguises your hand, eliminates the riff-raff, and gets you information about how much someone likes his hand. This draw was good enough for the raise here.

    I just didn't listen to the information I got in response.

    Which is my question: How BAD a call is this? I know it's not a GOOD call. So far it seems like there's differing opinions. I was sorta looking for some math genius to figure out how many times/100 I win this confrontation.

    If it helps, my opponent has an overpair, and not a set. All my outs are clean.

    EasyT
    I'm going to respectfully disagree with you again. If you are going to raise here (which I think you most definately should), you want to accomplish one of two things.

    1. You want a fold.
    2. If they do call, and you hit your flush or straight, you want to be able to take their stack.

    You can add to this that betting your draws strongly will help your monsters get paid off later on.

    Anyway, min-raising does not accomplish either of those 2 (3) things. Your opponent is not going to fold to a min-raise, and you are not committing them to the pot to be able to take their stack if they hit.

    I also disagree with this: "Which is my question: How BAD a call is this? I know it's not a GOOD call. "

    It was a good call. It is most definately +EV. HOWEVER, I don't agree with how the hand was played up until that point. You would be in a better position if:
    1. Your opponent folds.
    2. Your opponent smooth calls. Your entire stack doesn't end up in the middle this way if you miss.

    If your opponent comes over the top and puts you allin, you are in the same situation, but just because your opponent reraised you allin when you min-raised, does not mean he would do the same thing had you showed more strength on the flop.
  13. #13
    Thanks Lukie.

    I understand more of what is behind your thinking on my flop bet.

    Just because I do the min-raise with position on a draw and works a decent % of the time, doesn't mean this move can't be improved upon. I can agree that a larger raise stands a better chance of getting a fold/call-check. I can also agree that a bigger raise gets a bigger commitment from the opponent who calls it.

    Since we're discussing:
    Suppose I bet $12 (enough? or go up $15?) back at him.
    And he just calls.
    Suppose the turn misses and he checks into me.
    Just check behind, see the river and then drop the hammer if I hit?

    If I keep betting into him with my 6-high, and miss, I'm going to look pretty foolish mucking to a $2 bet on the river. I don't think I can bet the turn if I miss, unless I know my opponent to be weak.

    EasyT
  14. #14
    Depends on what you put your opponent on:

    Trips or any other two diamonds... Marginally bad call(31-46% to win)
    Two pair...basically even(slightly ahead of 43, slightly behind 94 or 93)
    Two overs/overpair/TPTK/bluff.... Good call(56-70% to win)

    That would be tough to lay down
  15. #15
    I try to push that hand, rather than call the all-in. I often check-raise it all-in OOP. In this case I'd make a bigger raise, to $12 or more.
  16. #16
    Zangief's Avatar
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    Math Genius: http://www.twodimes.net/poker/

    Opponent without a diamond:

    http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1289683
    pokenum -h 5d 6d - ac as -- 4d 3d 9c
    Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9c 4d 3d
    cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
    557 56.26 433 43.74 0 0.00 0.563
    :As: :Ac: 433 43.74 557 56.26 0 0.00 0.437

    Opponent with a diamond:

    http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1289684
    pokenum -h 5d 6d - ad as -- 4d 3d 9c
    Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9c 4d 3d
    cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
    521 52.63 469 47.37 0 0.00 0.526
    :As: :Ad: 469 47.37 521 52.63 0 0.00 0.474

    There's already $15 in the pot before he pushes. After he pushes, the pot you can win is $59. You have to call $40 to take it to a showdown.

    At $59-to-$40, you're getting almost 3-to-2 on the call.

    Opponent with a set with a diamond (worst possible case):

    http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1289692
    pokenum -h 5d 6d - 9d 9s -- 4d 3d 9c
    Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9c 4d 3d
    cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
    402 40.61 588 59.39 0 0.00 0.406
    588 59.39 402 40.61 0 0.00 0.594

    You're only a 3-to-2 dog, worst case.

    I think you must call. If they flip over anything other than a set, you are making money on the call. And even if they flip over a set, you are not losing any money on the call.
  17. #17
    EDIT: yep. Good fix.
    To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
  18. #18
    Zangief's Avatar
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    EDIT: Time warp.
  19. #19
    Zangief's Avatar
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    Another calculation:

    If you think it's x% that he has an overpair and the rest of the time he has a set (rounding $1 to $100 total pot):

    EV = x% * ( .55 * $60 + .45 * -$40 ) + (1-x)% * ( .6 * -$40 + .4 * $60 )
    EV = x% * ( $33 + -$18 ) + (1-x)% * ( -$24 + $24 )
    EV = x% * $15 + (1-x)% * $0
    EV = x% * $15

    (Notice how the set part of the equation fell out because you are getting even money.)

    For example, if it's 50-50:

    EV = 50% * $15 = $7.5

    If you think it's more like 75% that they have overpair:

    EV = 75% * $15 = $11.25

    If you think it's more like 25% that they have an overpair:

    EV = 25% * $15 = $3.75

    Have I pounded this into submission yet?
  20. #20
    My opponent actually had:

    ep42euro shows [ As, Ah ] a pair of aces.

    So no diamond. Big overpair, and I was actually the favorite to win this hand. Makes me feel a little better.

    I don't usually call an all-in in a ring game unless I believe RIGHT NOW I'm ahead. This draw may actually be enough to warrent the CALL.

    Thanks for the digits, Zangreif.

    Love ya man!

    I also love "ep42euro" who is a GREAT guy and a regular FTR friend here. I apologized to him in an email today about the "suckout" on his aces. But it looks like it's a pretty even call. Though I will try my utmost to play my hand better next time.

    EasyT.
  21. #21
    Lukie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EasyT
    Thanks Lukie.

    I understand more of what is behind your thinking on my flop bet.

    Just because I do the min-raise with position on a draw and works a decent % of the time, doesn't mean this move can't be improved upon. I can agree that a larger raise stands a better chance of getting a fold/call-check. I can also agree that a bigger raise gets a bigger commitment from the opponent who calls it.

    Since we're discussing:
    Suppose I bet $12 (enough? or go up $15?) back at him.
    And he just calls.
    Suppose the turn misses and he checks into me.
    Just check behind, see the river and then drop the hammer if I hit?

    If I keep betting into him with my 6-high, and miss, I'm going to look pretty foolish mucking to a $2 bet on the river. I don't think I can bet the turn if I miss, unless I know my opponent to be weak.

    EasyT
    Well, if you are genuinely interested in discussing the hand, I think the most logical place to start is preflop. The standard response here on FTR would be 'fold preflop.', given the min-raise UTG, your position.. 1 right of the CO, lack of players entering the pot in front of you, and the possibility of a player behind you on the CO or OTB entering the hand. If the 2 players behind you are tight, I like the call. It's important that you have the button post-flop when you play garbage hands like SC's.

    Villain puts out a bet on the flop slightly more then pot size, probably fearing those diamonds. It still looks like a c-bet on that flop though.. 439 2 suited. Your opponent almost definately has overcards or an overpair here, You are behind, but the favorite, against both.

    When you raise here, raise to at least $12. Forget what your opponent had right now. If he has overcards, you almost certainly get a fold. If he has an overpair you may get a call, push/reraise, or a fold. Your opponent can't really put you on a hand at this point, you could be holding 33, 44, 99, overcard flush draw, flush draw, OESD, OESFD, or a positional raise with any 2.

    Like I said, if he is c-betting with overcards, the hand ends here. He may fold an overpair here but most won't. Although If I'm holding an overpair in his situation, I think about all the stacks I have taken raising my flopped set in position . Just something to think about.

    If he pushes here, you have to call. This isn't how you would want the hand to play out (ideally you would be the one pushing), but it is definately +EV and a must-call.
    [edit: ideally you would get a fold, or you would be able to take your opponent's stack if you hit, and get out of the hand reasonably cheap if you miss. However, if all your money is going in on the flop, ideally yours would go in first so you still have folding equity.]

    Now let's say he calls, and you miss the turn. He checks to you, I check behind here more often then not. If I think I can take the pot down firing out again, I do that. More times then not though, I think it's best to take your free card that you bought with your flop raise.

    If you hit your straight or flush on the turn, bet it out. Look to get him AI by the river.


    Anyway, let's say he calls your flop raise, you miss the flop, and he bets out on the turn. This situation becomes more tricky now. Just evaluate your pot odds and implied odds and go from there. Is he going to pay you off if you hit? Is he more likely to pay off the straight then the flush? Without looking at the pot size and stack sizes (I forgot while writing this mega-essay on your 1 hand ), you can probably call a reasonable bet on the turn and have it be +EV if you can take his stack on the river. I'm going to bed now.. I've been rambling on about this hand forever..

    edit: also, emailing your opponent and appologizing (sp?) for 'suckout' was classy, but not really necessary. First.. bad beats happen. It's part of poker. Second, this wasn't even a bad beat, the money went in when you were the favorite in the hand. I assume a diamond, 2, or 7 hit, but it woulda been so much more badass if you hit running 2 pair.
  22. #22
    ideally with this situation, you'd wat to raise the flop since most of the time your a favorite to win the hand. however, you want to be left with a sizable amount at the river so just in case you miss your draw u can check on hopefully he checks as well. if you hit u can maybe get more out of the situation.
  23. #23
    Zangief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EasyT
    Thanks for the digits, Zangreif.

    Love ya man!
    I didn't know I gave you my phone number?!? And with all that help, you still got my name wrong.

    Anyway, you're welcome.
  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Zangief
    Opponent with a set with a diamond (worst possible case):

    http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1289692
    pokenum -h 5d 6d - 9d 9s -- 4d 3d 9c
    Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9c 4d 3d
    cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
    402 40.61 588 59.39 0 0.00 0.406
    588 59.39 402 40.61 0 0.00 0.594

    You're only a 3-to-2 dog, worst case.
    To be nit-picky this is not the worst case. A9 is a 69-31 favourite over hero (to win hero needs straight or runner runner two pair/trips).
    The worst case scenario is 97, which is a 75-25 favourite (runner runner two pair is no good for hero since it gives op a straight)
  25. #25
    Zangief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by krimson
    To be nit-picky this is not the worst case. A9 is a 69-31 favourite over hero (to win hero needs straight or runner runner two pair/trips).
    The worst case scenario is 97, which is a 75-25 favourite (runner runner two pair is no good for hero since it gives op a straight)
    That's not being nit-picky at all. Nice catch. I hadn't considered these hands.
  26. #26
    Lukie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zangief
    Quote Originally Posted by krimson
    To be nit-picky this is not the worst case. A9 is a 69-31 favourite over hero (to win hero needs straight or runner runner two pair/trips).
    The worst case scenario is 97, which is a 75-25 favourite (runner runner two pair is no good for hero since it gives op a straight)
    That's not being nit-picky at all. Nice catch. I hadn't considered these hands.
    I had considered Ad 9d, and I figured that would be slightly worse then the opponent holding a set of 9's with a diamond. Hadn't really thought about 9d 7d. The raise was from UTG though so neither hand is very likely.

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