how to price out draws

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($14.05)
MP3 ($19.15)
CO ($14.50)
Button ($18.60)
SB ($20)
BB ($24.75)
UTG ($24.25)
Hero (UTG+1) ($25.80)
MP1 ($22.80)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9, 9
1 fold, Hero bets $1.50, 1 fold, MP2 calls $1.50, 5 folds

Flop: ($3.75) 10, 2, 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, MP2 calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.75) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $5.50, MP2 calls $5.50

River: ($19.75) J (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $4.55 (All-In)
Hero?

Villain is 22/5.

First question, what to do here?

As a general issue, I run this type of line frequently, and I rarely win any pots with it. Villain does one of:

- reraises with a better hand, forcing me to lose by folding or give him my stack by calling
- calls down a draw on the flop and turn, hits the draw one out of three times, and stacks off on me
- slow plays a set and stacks off on me

After 25,000 hands I rarely run into the situation frequently talked about here where you can bet 1/2 the pot, get him calling down to the river, and take the pot most of the time by virtue of having a better starting hand and a good middle pair or top pair on the flop. I'm able to do that maybe once every 2,000 hands. I'm very confused, because people talk as if it's ABC poker against these guys, and I find it difficult to win hands this way. The usual way I might win is villain folds on the flop, and very infrequently fold on the turn, and that doesn't make up for all the losing hands I'm in.

If he has a 1:3 shot of hitting the flush by the river, it doesn't seem to me that it's possible to get the right odds over the long term unless I either way overbet the pot on the flop and turn or be willing to fold to any villain bet on the river. And what about if a suited card hits on the turn - keep betting, or let it go?

The problem there is I'm also usually out of position in this situation (not much I can do about that when I bet the best hand preflop, right?). On the river, if I bet, I'm paying off his chasing, giving him the odds to be profitable doing this repeatedly. If I check, he bets, and if I call, I'm again paying off his chasing.

So after a huge losing streak, I'm back to square one, trying to understand some basic aspects of poker to try to rebuild my game from scratch, because to lose this badly I must be missing out on one or more fundamental things. Help?

don't play less than 100bb deep if you suck playing less than 100bb deep.

as played hero shoves turn or check-folds turn. up to you.

things like % fold to c=bet help here. Realistically tho, there is not too much wrong with c-betting 1/2 pot then giving up if you don't have too many reads. I mean, he has top pair etc likely more often than a flush draw (count some hand combinations for fun) after he calls the flop and running elaborate multi-street bluffs at micros seems redundant to me.

Originally Posted by fakedecoy

So after a huge losing streak, I'm back to square one, trying to understand some basic aspects of poker to try to rebuild my game from scratch, because to lose this badly I must be missing out on one or more fundamental things. Help?

read all the beginners digest/stickied threads etc.

get in irc and talk poker, just ask a poker question and most of the time someone will talk about it. Sometimes it will be difficult to get past tales of tagging hot chicks and working at casinos tho

also, beating FR at micro stakes
1: decent pre-flop hand selection
2: value betting
3: ?????//
4: profit

As far as how deep of stacks to play, it seems as though the chasers have the advantage the deeper our stacks, because with shallow stacks I'm limiting how much more he can stack off on me for when he hits his draw or gets lucky, ie: I'm putting him nearly all-in by the time the river card hits when I bet 3/4 pot every street on a 40bb shallow table (on which he will often be playing half the max as with regular tables, or 20bb). Am I wrong here? I do lose quite a bit more on 100bb tables due to this, so that's why I've mostly stuck to 40bb tables.

Originally Posted by fakedecoy

As far as how deep of stacks to play, it seems as though the chasers have the advantage the deeper our stacks, because with shallow stacks I'm limiting how much more he can stack off on me for when he hits his draw or gets lucky, ie: I'm putting him nearly all-in by the time the river card hits when I bet 3/4 pot every street on a 40bb shallow table (on which he will often be playing half the max as with regular tables, or 20bb). Am I wrong here? I do lose quite a bit more on 100bb tables due to this, so that's why I've mostly stuck to 40bb tables.

um, it's ok to fold when a draw hits. it's ok to fold to resistance. you don't always have to value bet 3rd pair over multiple streets. post a few more hands

Originally Posted by fakedecoy

As far as how deep of stacks to play, it seems as though the chasers have the advantage the deeper our stacks, because with shallow stacks I'm limiting how much more he can stack off on me for when he hits his draw or gets lucky, ie: I'm putting him nearly all-in by the time the river card hits when I bet 3/4 pot every street on a 40bb shallow table (on which he will often be playing half the max as with regular tables, or 20bb). Am I wrong here? I do lose quite a bit more on 100bb tables due to this, so that's why I've mostly stuck to 40bb tables.

buying in short to limit how much you lose MAKES SENSE, but why the hell are you playing a game that you know you can't beat in the first place? Are you a winning reg at 25nl and taking shots at 50nl?

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

buying in short to limit how much you lose MAKES SENSE, but why the hell are you playing a game that you know you can't beat in the first place? Are you a winning reg at 25nl and taking shots at 50nl?

@ op, this is gold. If you haven't already beaten 5nl then move down for now

Drop down to at least 5NL, from what you said you appear to be a beginner and will just be wasting money playing 50NL.

Read the beginners digest here.. get a couple hundred thousand hands under your belt and get a grasp of the game a bit better. Posting hands here will also help a ton.

But most of all.. put your opponent on a GD range

Turn is a badish spot to barrel him.

River, I can't see what you beat.