I don't like any of my options.

16/13 in 130 hands - 30% fold, 70% call c-bet in 8 spots

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($39.45)
Hero (UTG+1) ($119.85)
MP1 ($122.20)
MP2 ($141.70)
CO ($103.00)
BTN ($15.50)
SB ($17.50)
BB ($50.00)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 8 players) Hero is UTG+1
1 fold, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, MP2 calls $3.50, 3 folds, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($11, 3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8, MP2 calls $8, BB folds

Turn: ($27, 2 players)
Hero bets $22, MP2 calls $22

River: ($71, 2 players)
Hero ($86.35)?


I decided to remove my thoughts on that hand... maybe I'm making this way more complicated than it really is.


Maybe a more interesting hand would be:
(same stacks, same villain)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 8 players) Hero is UTG+1
1 fold, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, MP2 calls $3.50, 3 folds, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($11, 3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8, MP2 calls $8, BB folds

Turn: ($27, 2 players)
Hero ??

I really don't have an attractive plan for turn and river in this spot.

1 - bet something an underset will call. I guess he can have aces occassionally but it's not really an issue. definitely bet though.

2 is more intersting since 66 is more frequently in his range (66 folds turn a lot in hand one). Still a bet though..

Block the river for $10

My problem with any kind of check/blockbet (really not much different to a thinking opponent) is that he can pretty much shove his entire range on the river.
In the original example I guess there's really not much I can do. I can only hope for a less thinking opponent, and without much history I just have to blockbet/fold.

That's why I thought the second one is more interesting because there I have an option not to get myself in such a gay river spot by taking some kind of pot control line.

hand 1 block
hand 2 bet $15 and i go broke on the turn here if i have to

how much air do you think he has in his range to turn into a bluff once he calls your turn bet? I MASSIVELY doubt that any 100nl reg is shoving a set as a bluff here.. If you think he is shoving over his entire range though, isn't this a marvelous thing since we are wayy ahead of his turn calling range?

block river for like 20 and you're fine

Originally Posted by badgers

I MASSIVELY doubt that any 100nl reg is shoving a set as a bluff here.. If you think he is shoving over his entire range though, isn't this a marvelous thing since we are wayy ahead of his turn calling range?

I'm not saying he will, I'm saying he could. Not a set ldo... no point in trying to bluff out 3 or 6 combos, but he could turn some overpairs into a bluff, and it would be a good play.
If I'm the villain, I'm very tempted to shove my mediocre overpairs that I thought might be good on the turn, but probably not on the river.

---

Yup, I figured blockbet/fold river would be fine.
Anyone got a plan that includes turn and river in hand #2

20 on river imo

bet/call turn
bet/call river

he'll shove turn with straight and sets, you're ok against that range, if he flats with a straight and you don't boat up oh well you just got owned but really that's not gonna be a lot of times.

hand 1 is the the best case for a blocker bet I've seen in my entire life

I don't see how villain in hand 1 can have anything other than a set and the occasional overpair. 70% cbet call doesnt mean shit here since your repping from utg+1. I'm betting for value

Originally Posted by oskar

If I'm the villain, I'm very tempted to shove my mediocre overpairs that I thought might be good on the turn, but probably not on the river.

If you swapped places, this is not good at all relative to your and his position at the table

Originally Posted by ZwiFT

I don't see how villain in hand 1 can have anything other than a set and the occasional overpair. 70% cbet call doesnt mean shit here since your repping from utg+1. I'm betting for value

imho he can definitely have 45s - 78s going to the turn. Why wouldn't he want to peel with those? So there would be 6x straight, 6x underset, 3x 45s and 36x 88-QQ by the river. Given that most people have a tendency to raise/ship sets on the flop, I think sc's will show up even more often.
There's no question that I can bet it for value, the problem is what do I do against a shove? And even if a blockbet will work just fine against most 100NL opponents, it's an interesting spot to figure out against someone who might be capable of turning a made hand into a bluff.

Originally Posted by ZwiFT

Originally Posted by oskar

If I'm the villain, I'm very tempted to shove my mediocre overpairs that I thought might be good on the turn, but probably not on the river.

If you swapped places, this is not good at all relative to your and his position at the table

How does that matter?
Would you b/c a shove with my hand? If not, then there are only 6 combos I would call with opposed to 39 I would play this way, but fold to a river shove: TT+, sets.

he really shouldn't have mediocre overpairs in his range unless he views you as more aggressive than the average 100nl reg (he's even less likely to have mediocre overpairs if bb is a fish)

Oscar instead of thinking of all the things he could do, why not just focus on what he's likely to do?

You're overthinking imo.

he is either chasing a straight or has 2 pair bet away

There is no fucking way a 16/12 here has 45s-78s against another reg 100bb deep. He might do it vs a donk or a ubernit but not vs another reg who knows how to handread and shizzle.

i play about 18/15 and i don't even call with those

hand 2 just bet/block as you would in hand 1 not much has changed

there is no way im b/f this river, he views your hand as KK-AA.. And btw its pretty normal to c flop c turn with a set when for villain here if your range looks like KK-AA

uhh our hand looks like kk or better, not only aa/kk

Originally Posted by TwoSmeets

uhh our hand looks like kk or better, not only aa/kk

Exactly and since people arnt able to fold sets we should valuebet, if they were this is a c/c for value. I'm starting to go for c/c anyways cus there is no way villain isnt valuebetting set here

Originally Posted by oskar

My problem with any kind of check/blockbet (really not much different to a thinking opponent) is that he can pretty much shove his entire range on the river.

You're not playing against durrrrr