Implied odds?

***** Hand History for Game 3560886368 *****
$25 NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, February 15, 20:10:59 ET 2006
Table Table 65847 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: cpd222 ( $24.15 )
Seat 2: MilwaukePhil ( $25.85 )
Seat 3: stingss ( $45.05 )
Seat 4: aplysia_ub ( $9.25 )
Seat 5: lukavacki ( $43.50 )
Seat 7: Renton555 ( $29.45 )
Seat 8: wezvidz ( $23.20 )
Seat 9: jackfate ( $38.40 )
Seat 10: nonoman21787 ( $25 )
Seat 6: roguebroker ( $11.35 )
Renton555 posts small blind [$0.10].
wezvidz posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Renton555 [ 5c 5h ]
jackfate raises [$2].
nonoman21787 folds.
cpd222 folds.
MilwaukePhil folds.
>You have options at Table 66379 Table!.
stingss raises [$7].
aplysia_ub folds.
>You have options at Table 66379 Table!.
lukavacki calls [$7].
>You have options at Table 65906 Table!.
roguebroker folds.
>You have options at Table 66379 Table!.
Renton555 folds.
wezvidz folds.
jackfate calls [$5].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5d, Ah, 6d ]
jackfate bets [$10].
stingss folds.
lukavacki folds.
jackfate does not show cards.
jackfate wins $30.30

Did the pot/implied odds justify a call here? Villian said later he had aces, so if thats true I'da got stacked, but when I saw that five hit I nearly wept.

Umm, the answer is no. These guys are repping really strong hands, most likely one of them has a pp. You're so utterly dominated that i wouldn't do it.

You are going to hit a set on the flop somewhere around 12% of the time (and AA will draw out on you some of those) so you need to be winning around $55-$60 for it to be worth calling $7 preflop


[0.88x$7 is the amount you expect to lose so to break even you need to win 0.12 x n .

.: n = 0.88x7/0.12= $51]

So his stack would have to be at least $51 (It is actually more than this since AA can draw out on 55 after the flop.

He doesnt have the stack (and neither do you) so just fold.




Appendix I



equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 19.7741 % 19.60% 00.17% { 5c5d }
Hand 2: 80.2259 % 80.06% 00.17% { AhAs }

Originally Posted by Pelion

You are going to hit a set on the flop somewhere around 12% of the time (and AA will draw out on you some of those) so you need to be winning around $55-$60 for it to be worth calling $7 preflop


[0.88x$7 is the amount you expect to lose so to break even you need to win 0.12 x n .

.: n = 0.88x7/0.12= $51]

So his stack would have to be at least $51 (It is actually more than this since AA can draw out on 55 after the flop.

He doesnt have the stack (and neither do you) so just fold.




Appendix I



equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 19.7741 % 19.60% 00.17% { 5c5d }
Hand 2: 80.2259 % 80.06% 00.17% { AhAs }

Aren't you forgetting the third person here? I was getting 2:1 pot odds. Had I hit the set I would have stacked two players, hence doubling the implied odds.

I think I made the right fold here, I am just bringing to light the small possibility that a call would have been another idea.