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 Originally Posted by Pelion
You are going to hit a set on the flop somewhere around 12% of the time (and AA will draw out on you some of those) so you need to be winning around $55-$60 for it to be worth calling $7 preflop
[0.88x$7 is the amount you expect to lose so to break even you need to win 0.12 x n .
.: n = 0.88x7/0.12= $51]
So his stack would have to be at least $51 (It is actually more than this since AA can draw out on 55 after the flop.
He doesnt have the stack (and neither do you) so just fold.
Appendix I
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 19.7741 % 19.60% 00.17% { 5c5d }
Hand 2: 80.2259 % 80.06% 00.17% { AhAs }
Aren't you forgetting the third person here? I was getting 2:1 pot odds. Had I hit the set I would have stacked two players, hence doubling the implied odds.
I think I made the right fold here, I am just bringing to light the small possibility that a call would have been another idea.
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