Interesting river decision imo 400NL

Haven't seen guy much but looks like a regular. Is playing 18/12 over 300 hands and this is the first time he has 3bet me. I'm 13/9 this session.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($98)
Button ($640.10)
SB ($366.30)
BB ($214)
UTG ($404.50)
UTG+1 ($80)
MP1 ($412)
Hero (MP2) ($560.30)
MP3 ($412.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, A
3 folds, Hero raises to $16, MP3 raises to $52, 4 folds, Hero calls $36

Flop: ($110) A, 9, 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks

Turn: ($110) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $72, MP3 calls $72

River: ($254) K (2 players)
Hero $289 behind

It's a bet-call but I'm not sure what the correct bet size should be. In order to bet-fold you have to be very sure he'd never bluff or play the other AK this way and we don't know enough about him to make that assumption.

His range is JJ/QQ/KK/Ax that 3bet bluffed you so bet whatever you think he'll call with these bluffcatchers. $150 sounds good.

has villain 3-bet anyone else?
I'm curious about the flop line - was the check to induce a bet?

River as played, are you always prepared to stack off here?
First two streets don't suggest villain is too bluffy - but monkey checked to... Also, there's nothing to suggest that AA/KK aren't among his holdings + you have huge showdown value. Check-call>bet-call>bet-fold?

ouch, its the first time he 3 bet against a nit. So i might fold this AKo preflop unless my game plan is to outplay him after the flop. On the river, i know its hard to make any dime here cuz the situation is WA/WB. So i hate my life and lean towards a c/c here. QQ/JJ wouldnt call any reasonable river bet IMO.

IMO he called the turn to see if you would fire again on a bluff and put him to a tough decision on the river or else he is tarping!

The only hands we beat are QQ (JJ but im not even sure he 3bets this) some random shit and split with AK and i dont like the fact he isnt looking us up with worse.
So i dont think i like betting as i dont see how you can fold unless you bet like $111 on river, and a shove by us doesnt get called by worse hands other than for a split.

Pretty shitty spot, i actually want to say c/f or c/c a smallish bet, as all other hands fold river or check behind if you check (cant see them being good/dumb enough to turn losing hands into bluffs here considering what our range has to be)

JJ/QQ check it back but are probably folding to a bet.
TT/KK/AK are shoving over.
Axs calls how much...
I vote b/f $124

edit: too good pot odds b/c $124

the two hands I thought it looked the most like no one has mentioned, so Imma keep my mouf shut until I hear more.

shoveloslovakia

when you play AK like this pf then your hand is the nuts on the flop. the most legitimate hand that is behind on turn yet ahead on river is KK. if QJ is part of his range then so are weaker aces. he can easily be checking that flop with tpwk, yet may (should) call down.

after calling pf, really the only time you lose this hand is to a straight up cooler, and with how the hand went down you're getting nothing out of inducing a river bluff but you do get out of getting a weak ace to call.

bet like 166

also fold pre i think. People are gonna slander me for this all day but its how I feel, and I'd be incredibly surprised if you could win money calling pre here vs someone who hasn't 3-bet you in hundreds of hands.

Originally Posted by Renton

bet like 166

also fold pre i think. People are gonna slander me for this all day but its how I feel, and I'd be incredibly surprised if you could win money calling pre here vs someone who hasn't 3-bet you in hundreds of hands.

Completely agree. Fold pre as well.

Originally Posted by Renton

bet like 166

also fold pre i think. People are gonna slander me for this all day but its how I feel, and I'd be incredibly surprised if you could win money calling pre here vs someone who hasn't 3-bet you in hundreds of hands.

for the 'lots' of times im guessing you fold, are you 4 betting here as well?
Agree with the thoughts but what ratio's we talking if you are 4 betting? just AKs for example?

It's not like we're really in EP, no one has said AQs and no one has projected he possibly 3bet us light here.

I always got the feel 400nl was much more aggro pre than 100 or 200nl FR so I almost feel like we're putting him on too strong of a range PF.

Wouldn't QJ raise the turn rather than flatting?
This hand I think AQ falls in the same category as other Ax.

Uhhh over 300 hands and he's directly to your left and this is the first 3bet? Judging by that he's got value hands a lot more often than Ax and none of the value 3bet hands that you beat are calling, so why bet?

This spot is weird.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

It's not like we're really in EP, no one has said AQs and no one has projected he possibly 3bet us light here.

I always got the feel 400nl was much more aggro pre than 100 or 200nl FR so I almost feel like we're putting him on too strong of a range PF.

I was thinking AQ here a lot too, and its not like our opponent has spent 300 hands on our left and hasn't 3 bet us so I think this stat is too misleading and a sample size way too small.

And if our opponent has AQ what's the best way to play this river? Hope he valuetowns himself?

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

It's not like we're really in EP, no one has said AQs and no one has projected he possibly 3bet us light here.

I always got the feel 400nl was much more aggro pre than 100 or 200nl FR so I almost feel like we're putting him on too strong of a range PF.

while this does hold true on average. you still should fold when the nit raises.

he can be 3- betting a range including several hands weaker than AK and its still preflop fold. are you aware of the gap concept?

no one is saying to call PF, I'm saying that JJ+,AK cannot be his only range postflop/range he gets to the river with.

AK is actually probably the nuts vs anybody who 3bets kinda light. even if he employs the gap concept (IF) AK is real strong since it's the nuts if AK or QQ are in his top end here, AK has two blockers to the only hands it doesn't wanna see, and even then we dont know how much of his range is on what end.

everybody plays differently. history, especially at fullring tables, can be very misleading. i guess im okay with pf fold since it seems that villain is tight here, but he would have to be 3betting a PERFECT frequency for AK to not be able to correctly come over the top.

if opp was a light 3bettor its an easy 4bet IMO. But he isnt, if we had QQ here this would be a little bit more of a decision