K8s line-check

I don't mind hearing "FOLD PRE-FLOP" a bunch of times, but if you take the time to post, I'd appreciate a post-flop line-check too

MP1 is an unknown. CO is laggy and a bit fishy, stats are 34/9 over 300+. I think his CO raising range is wide. I haven't played much with SB, but he seems like a typical 100NL tagg, stats are 20/10 over ~60.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $0.50/$1 - 9 players Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $32.75
UTG+1: $52.85
MP1: $33.50
MP2: $93.40
MP3: $66.50
CO: $133.55
Button: $142.65
SB: $118.70
Hero: $113.65

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is BB with K 8
2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO raises to $3, Button folds, SB calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: K 2 7 ($12, 4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7, 2 folds, SB raises to $14, Hero calls.

Turn: 3 ($40, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: 8 ($40, 2 players)
SB bets $22, Hero calls.

Looks like SB has a set, but I can't figure out why he wouldn't lead turn, unless he expects you to bet and intends to check raise again. I think your line is good actually. He could flip AK here too, maybe KQ/KJ/KT. Maybe even a busted draw. I think turn check is good for pot control, and I have a hard time folding top two on this board....had he led turn I would have been out of there....

i think your play is fine. i'm guessing you lost the hand. is he holding 22 or 77? (i doubt he has KK)
if he's holding 33 or 88 you just got bad beaten - but i doubt he was.

good bet on the flop. i think calling his reraise is best. checking the turn is fine. you can get out the hand if you miss the river.

calling the river is fine. he could be making that bet with AK or similar hands or a busted flush draw. maybe even a weaker hand if he thinks your check on the turn was weak.

i don't think you could have made any more on the hand (if you won it) and I think you lost the least possible amount (if you did lose).

i think reraising the river is too dangerous - if he calls/raises he most likely has a set and has you beaten. if he folds you were beating him anyway.

i think you played this hand fine. i can't see any faults with it

Doesn't look like a set to me. A set would bet the turn trying to protect against the flush draw. I think villain has a weak K or the flush draw and checked the turn to see what you would do. He probably put you on a flush draw once you checked the turn because if you had a hand, why wouldn't you have bet it? So, when the river didn't complete the flush draw, he bet out...

I would have bet 1/2 pot on the turn to see what he does. A raise would clearly say "set"...as played, you can't really tell what his river bet means.

Min-raising the river would be sexy.

Fnord FTW. I was scared of the set but he showed AKo. Question though, if you min-raise the river can you fold to a push, getting 3:1? I think djcko's point is good that a set usually leads the turn here, but should I be willing to bet my stack on it?

i was thinking id minraise river also

Originally Posted by Fnord

Min-raising the river would be sexy.

do you call if he moves allin though?

Originally Posted by djzcko

Doesn't look like a set to me. A set would bet the turn trying to protect against the flush draw. I think villain has a weak K or the flush draw and checked the turn to see what you would do. He probably put you on a flush draw once you checked the turn because if you had a hand, why wouldn't you have bet it? So, when the river didn't complete the flush draw, he bet out...

I would have bet 1/2 pot on the turn to see what he does. A raise would clearly say "set"...as played, you can't really tell what his river bet means.

Agreed set normally leads turn, but a tricky player may try to make a play to set up a double check raise. Then again, how many of those are at $100?

Just seems to me the minraise is strength more often than not these days....

Does nobody like three-betting this flop with top pair and almost the nut flush draw? We are in position too...

I think I may be getting out of line lately with leading out with a pair and a flush draw on the flop, and pushing over any raise.

maybe this is spewing? I think I would have three-bet this flop, but I'd like to hear why this may be a bad play...

You have to be able to extract in a hand like this when massive strength was not demonstrated by villain. If he had a set you would be staring at a $75 pot on the river. Dynamically evaluate your read on each street. Looks to me like you created a read early and got married to it. His turn action changed everything.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Does nobody like three-betting this flop with top pair and almost the nut flush draw? We are in position too...

I think I may be getting out of line lately with leading out with a pair and a flush draw on the flop, and pushing over any raise.

maybe this is spewing? I think I would have three-bet this flop, but I'd like to hear why this may be a bad play...

I think a 3-bet push here is -EV, mainly because I think a check/minraise is almost always strength, especially in a multi-way pot. I put villain on KQ+/22/77 or less likely KJ/KT/K7/K2. You're either marginally behind here (KT+,K7,K2), or way behind (22/77). So a push is only good if you have a lot of fold equity. You'll fold the unlikely KJ/KT, and probably a lot of KQ's, but I think you'll get a fair number of calls from AK and definitely all calls from two-pairs and sets. If you're called you're about a 2:1 dog (calculated by Pokerstove). If you get 50% folds to your push (tough number to justify, but it seems right or even a little high to me, feel free to disagree) it's -EV:

.5 x +$33 = +$16.50 (EV if villain folds 1/2 the time)
.17 x +$125 = +$21.25 (EV if villain calls and we win)
.33 x -$103 = -$33.33 (EV if villain calls and wins)
EV = +$4.42

edit: I just corrected the last equation. I mistakenly included the $ I had already put in the pot. So actually, I believe if you're getting 50% folds, this is slightly +EV. I'm not entirely comfortable with these calculations yet (obv) so feel free to correct me. If you move the fold % down to 40% than the EV is -$3. So, it depends

Originally Posted by Rondavu

You have to be able to extract in a hand like this when massive strength was not demonstrated by villain. If he had a set you would be staring at a $75 pot on the river. Dynamically evaluate your read on each street. Looks to me like you created a read early and got married to it. His turn action changed everything.

Excellent points. I'm definitely guilty of getting married to my reads.