Quote Originally Posted by griffey24
Does nobody like three-betting this flop with top pair and almost the nut flush draw? We are in position too...

I think I may be getting out of line lately with leading out with a pair and a flush draw on the flop, and pushing over any raise.

maybe this is spewing? I think I would have three-bet this flop, but I'd like to hear why this may be a bad play...
I think a 3-bet push here is -EV, mainly because I think a check/minraise is almost always strength, especially in a multi-way pot. I put villain on KQ+/22/77 or less likely KJ/KT/K7/K2. You're either marginally behind here (KT+,K7,K2), or way behind (22/77). So a push is only good if you have a lot of fold equity. You'll fold the unlikely KJ/KT, and probably a lot of KQ's, but I think you'll get a fair number of calls from AK and definitely all calls from two-pairs and sets. If you're called you're about a 2:1 dog (calculated by Pokerstove). If you get 50% folds to your push (tough number to justify, but it seems right or even a little high to me, feel free to disagree) it's -EV:

.5 x +$33 = +$16.50 (EV if villain folds 1/2 the time)
.17 x +$125 = +$21.25 (EV if villain calls and we win)
.33 x -$103 = -$33.33 (EV if villain calls and wins)
EV = +$4.42

edit: I just corrected the last equation. I mistakenly included the $ I had already put in the pot. So actually, I believe if you're getting 50% folds, this is slightly +EV. I'm not entirely comfortable with these calculations yet (obv) so feel free to correct me. If you move the fold % down to 40% than the EV is -$3. So, it depends

Quote Originally Posted by Rondavu
You have to be able to extract in a hand like this when massive strength was not demonstrated by villain. If he had a set you would be staring at a $75 pot on the river. Dynamically evaluate your read on each street. Looks to me like you created a read early and got married to it. His turn action changed everything.
Excellent points. I'm definitely guilty of getting married to my reads.