KK Deep Stacks vs. Tight/Solid - Help Me

50NL

Villain is tight. Seems pretty solid. He had his deep stack before I arrived and didn't play very many hands.

Hero is UTG+1 ($149.85) with
Villain is UTG ($172.14)

Pre-Flop
Villain raises to $2
Hero raises to $6
Villain calls $4

Flop (2 Players, Pot = $12.75)


Villain bets $8
Hero calls $8

Turn (2 Players, Pot = $28.75)


Villain bets $20
Hero calls $20

River (2 Players, Pot = $68.75)


Villain bets $30
Hero folds

Yeah, the river pretty much did you in. Only hand you're beating is AJ.

Raise the flop to $30, fold to a 3-bet. As played, I'm fine with the river fold, but I also think a river min-raise might get a fold, given your line.

Originally Posted by zook

Raise the flop to $30, fold to a 3-bet. As played, I'm fine with the river fold, but I also think a river min-raise might get a fold, given your line.

I think raising this river is a bad idea.

Originally Posted by givememyleg

I think raising this river is a bad idea.

Yeah, probably. $30 looks blocking-ish though and if villain is tight, he's worried about AK. I doubt I have the balls to do it, just throwing it out there. I really think hero needs to raise the flop though.

Yeah, we're just calling on the flop here why?

Originally Posted by Warpe

Yeah, we're just calling on the flop here why?

Pot control and to look at a turn card + bet before we put any more money in.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Warpe

Yeah, we're just calling on the flop here why?

Pot control and to look at a turn card + bet before we put any more money in.

...given the tight read.

Bleh. I still like a raise here.

Originally Posted by Warpe

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Warpe

Yeah, we're just calling on the flop here why?

Pot control and to look at a turn card + bet before we put any more money in.

...given the tight read.

Bleh. I still like a raise here.

I definitely raise the flop here. Solid tight players will bet out w/ draws and this board is extremely draw heavy. If he tries to play for stacks, I might get away from it. 2 hearts here is possible and KQ here is possible. KQ of hearts is very possible.

In sum, the flop stab is suspicious, I raise, if he plays for stacks I fold.

As played, I might fold the river, but I disagree that we might not still be ahead here. KQ of hearts will definitely play this hand this way.

Originally Posted by dpe8598

KQ of hearts will definitely play this hand this way.

but i think i'm behind a big majority of his range here. yes it "could" be KQs, but how often is it that? how often is it a better hand than that?

The more I look at it, the more I can't see us being behind. Sure, its possible that solid/tight player plays a set or AK or AQ this way, but it doesn't seem terribly likely to me. Why would he wait till a scary river to get his money in on a set. Does solid/tight player play a set this way after a preflop 3-bet. No, I think he plays a draw this way. Solid/Tight player definitely doesnt play AK or AQ this way. AJ is very possible and so is KQ. 89 is even possible. And any 2 hearts are possible.

QQ is a small possibility, but that would be awful weak preflop.

I would raise the flop, but as played I call the river.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by dpe8598

KQ of hearts will definitely play this hand this way.

but i think i'm behind a big majority of his range here. yes it "could" be KQs, but how often is it that? how often is it a better hand than that?

I can understand if you disagree w/ me, but I dont think you are usually beat here. A set is the biggest possibility, but if he has a set, why isn't he check-raising flop. You 3-bet preflop, so he knows you will stab on flop. Even if he decides to bet out w/ set, I think tight/solid player bets more on turn. This board is very draw heavy. I also think tight/solid player is weary of river. The only hands left in YOUR range that he beats w/ a set on the river are KK and AA. He is now beat by JJ,QQ and AK.

Originally Posted by dpe8598

The more I look at it, the more I can't see us being behind. Sure, its possible that solid/tight player plays a set or AK or AQ this way, but it doesn't seem terribly likely to me. Why would he wait till a scary river to get his money in on a set. Does solid/tight player play a set this way after a preflop 3-bet. No, I think he plays a draw this way. Solid/Tight player definitely doesnt play AK or AQ this way. AJ is very possible and so is KQ. 89 is even possible. And any 2 hearts are possible.

QQ is a small possibility, but that would be awful weak preflop.

I would raise the flop, but as played I call the river.

What about AA? Why is QQ weak preflop? If you can't put him on QQ then you can't put him on KQ,89, or AJ.

Originally Posted by dpe8598

The more I look at it, the more I can't see us being behind. Sure, its possible that solid/tight player plays a set or AK or AQ this way, but it doesn't seem terribly likely to me.

Led 2/3 pot twice then 1/2 pot on the river into a big built pot. I think he clearly thinks he's ahead.

QQ got there on the river. A spewy AK did too unless it's hearts..

He could be bet/folding something like AJ/QJs for value. Maybe AQ hearts.

But given the read this looks a lot like TT+/AK.

Originally Posted by dpe8598

Does solid/tight player play a set this way after a preflop 3-bet.

Yes, because if we raise him then showdown costs us our stack.

Originally Posted by dpe8598

A set is the biggest possibility, but if he has a set, why isn't he check-raising flop.

He wants to 3-bet bomb when worse hands (particularly draws) raise. A check/raise won't shut them out this deep. Also, he wants to keep 1 pair and AK hands calling him down.

calling flop is fine. Minraise on turn is super sexy (check behind any non-K river). As played you are behind but never to AK so fold or shove.

But seriously, the best play is to call flop and showdown-minraise a blank turn card.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by dpe8598

A set is the biggest possibility, but if he has a set, why isn't he check-raising flop.

He wants to 3-bet bomb when worse hands (particularly draws) raise. A check/raise won't shut them out this deep. Also, he wants to keep 1 pair and AK hands calling him down.

Great! Then I want to raise and fold to his 3-bet. However, I think when people lead out this way (when they were not the original preflop aggressor) on a draw heavy board that they more frequently have a draw than a set.

Poker is all about determing players most likely holding. IMO, this flop bet most likely means he has a draw, but could have a set. In your opinion, villain usually has a set here. No way to know for sure.

Originally Posted by dpe8598

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by dpe8598

A set is the biggest possibility, but if he has a set, why isn't he check-raising flop.

He wants to 3-bet bomb when worse hands (particularly draws) raise. A check/raise won't shut them out this deep. Also, he wants to keep 1 pair and AK hands calling him down.

Great! Then I want to raise and fold to his 3-bet. However, I think when people lead out this way (when they were not the original preflop aggressor) on a draw heavy board that they more frequently have a draw than a set.

Poker is all about determing players most likely holding. IMO, this flop bet most likely means he has a draw, but could have a set. In your opinion, villain usually has a set here. No way to know for sure.

This could also very easily be AA/QQ. Like I said earlier if you can't even put villain on QQ here then how could you put him on something like KQ/AJ? I think villain's range here could be JJ+ (Maybe TT also)/AK/Maybe AQ/KQ, and I mean maybe for those last two. I think I'm behind to the majority of his likely holdings.

I agree reraising the flop. But given the
villains range you dont have many hands you
will beat. Deep stacks make this even more
complicated.

As played river fold is right thing to do. Only hand
you beat is AJ.

miniraise teh turn, fold to a strong river lead (qq just got their and so did a badly played AK)

I might actually call this river and expect to see JJ/TT. If opp shows AA/AK then hes def getting stacked big style when the cash is this deep after leading into a preflop reraiser on every street imo.

I think I like the fold...his flop range is pretty wide...
AJ, middle-pair, AT hearts, AQ hearts, KQ suited or not, 89 suited maybe hearts, and obviously AA-TT.

His turn 2/3 pot bet says a lot though...most people will not continue to bluff into the pfr oop there without a good hand or very strong draw...particularly nitty players. By then you can more narrowly put him on AA-TT, 89h...

The river gets tough because it brings a card that he might bet if he had AQ/KQ...I seriously doubt this is 89 or even AK - he basically blocking-bets half pot there...you think anyone's doing that with AJ/AQ/KQ when they fear that you might have AK?
Against a nit, I'm ruling out AJ there completely...QJ doubtful, AK doubtful, 89 doubtful...so that leaves you with AA (which might even check), QQ-TT, AQ/KQ (still possible).
Most of his range now creams you and he would have to be pretty balsy (not a nit) if he's leading AQ/KQ on the river there.

I also like the pot-control you exhibited in this hand, given the big stacks. My first inclination was to call the river, and I might in the heat of the moment...but I think the fold is probably better after thinking through it.

The main questionable part of this hand is the flop...you made your decision there to go for pot-control ... other option obviously is to reraise and then slow-down/fold to further action. I definitely don't think that the turn is the time to reraise at all.

Results?

No, dahorror, the turn IS the time to (min)raise. You're still mostly ahead, but you don't want to call a huge river bet. So you minraise, setting the price of showdown and check behind any non-K river. If villain 3bets the turn or bets big on the river you are beat 98% of the time.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Results?

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Hero folds

Have another coffee, Fnord.

Originally Posted by Warpe

Originally Posted by Fnord

Results?

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Hero folds

Have another coffee, Fnord.

wow, you really need to reraise more preflop here, probably to around 10 dollars

be more mindful of stack depth when reraising a solid player preflop

Originally Posted by nutsinho

No, dahorror, the turn IS the time to (min)raise. You're still mostly ahead, but you don't want to call a huge river bet. So you minraise, setting the price of showdown and check behind any non-K river. If villain 3bets the turn or bets big on the river you are beat 98% of the time.

Ok I can see the benefit of that. I don't tend to minraise so I don't consider it much...however in this case if you are essentially going for a cheap to free showdown then it has some merit.

Originally Posted by Renton

wow, you really need to reraise more preflop here, probably to around 10 dollars

be more mindful of stack depth when reraising a solid player preflop

3bet more b/c stacks are deep or 3bet more in general?

oh ya...forgot to mention...AhKh/KhQh is impossible gang. Hero has the Kh

Can someone tell me what the equity of a river push is? How often does villain have to fold to make it profitable? I think we have to consider it may be +EV.

Originally Posted by Rondavu

Can someone tell me what the equity of a river push is?

Think this guy is sick enough to laydown a set?

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by Renton

wow, you really need to reraise more preflop here, probably to around 10 dollars

be more mindful of stack depth when reraising a solid player preflop

3bet more b/c stacks are deep or 3bet more in general?

in general you should have made it 7, because of stacks, you need to make it an amount that accomplishes:

A. Small enough that he'll call you fairly lightly.
B. Large enough that he won't be able to profit very well from his speculative calls.

The nature of the stack depth is such that even if you made it 10 to go, you still need to get away if he flops a set, but reraising to 10 will make it such that you can sometimes get stacked and it not be very -EV for you.

KQ is a likely case, I agree the river seems like a top-pair block bet- and a flopped oesd with 2 overs seems to play this way. Also, a set seems doubtful- unless this guy had the ability and foresight to fastplay three fives without making it obvious he feared the draw.

Put this guy on JJ or TT and you're giving him a helluva lot of credit in terms of playing ability. I agree that Joe Poker would put his money in by the turn here with that type of holding. QQ is possible... but... no heavy pf or flop action.

My conclusion is that- as is common with large bets- villain has a marginal holding. QK , JT, or QJ. Either would've been quiet preflop, led the flop, continued the turn w/ a blank, and have confidence still on the river (he didn't overbet it like a missed draw or made set, either...)

You lose the most money on the hands that you slightly trail (overpair v. 2 pair, 2 pair v. set, set v. straight...) and vice versa (IMO) b/c the betting patterns don't indicate whether you're cleary behind or ahead... you're just - somewhere nearby.

I say KQ read is merely a temptation for the hopeful- I pitch the cowboys and save myself the 30.

Originally Posted by bigslikk

KQ is a likely case, I agree the river seems like a top-pair block bet- and a flopped oesd with 2 overs seems to play this way.

I thought this at first too...However, many players (especially nits) will just limp or fold KQ utg. And they don't tend to bet the turn missed all that much either, particularly in a large reraised pot. The river becomes tough because it does make it seem like villain could be making a (just hit) top pair blocking bet with KQ, or even Ace-Queen of hearts. However, Hero has played this hand just as much like missed AK as anything, so Villain's river blocking bet becomes deceptive...Rondavu's question asking about the EV of Hero pushing the river is a good one - I also considered that - it seems to me that it's pretty even odds EV to me 50/50 call/fold for Villain...it's really tough not to just push there for an agro player, particularly seeing that villain has considered AK as a possible holding by Hero.

Originally Posted by bigslikk

Also, a set seems doubtful- unless this guy had the ability and foresight to fastplay three fives without making it obvious he feared the draw.
Put this guy on JJ or TT and you're giving him a helluva lot of credit in terms of playing ability. I agree that Joe Poker would put his money in by the turn here with that type of holding. QQ is possible... but... no heavy pf or flop action.

I don't think this is 555...but there's nothing about the play here whatsoever that discounts JJ or TT in any way - in fact it is fairly well-represented, not that those are the only hands I can put him on, but they make up a very large part of them by the turn/river (including the AA/QQ/AQs/KQs)

Originally Posted by bigslikk

My conclusion is that- as is common with large bets- villain has a marginal holding. QK , JT, or QJ. Either would've been quiet preflop, led the flop, continued the turn w/ a blank, and have confidence still on the river (he didn't overbet it like a missed draw or made set, either...)

Yea outside of KQs I just don't see any of those holdings from an UTG nit.

Originally Posted by bigslikk

KQ is a likely case, I agree the river seems like a top-pair block bet- and a flopped oesd with 2 overs seems to play this way. Also, a set seems doubtful- unless this guy had the ability and foresight to fastplay three fives without making it obvious he feared the draw.

Put this guy on JJ or TT and you're giving him a helluva lot of credit in terms of playing ability. I agree that Joe Poker would put his money in by the turn here with that type of holding. QQ is possible... but... no heavy pf or flop action.

What do you mean no heavy pf/flop action? He raised preflop & led into the preflop 3bettor for 3/4 pot on flop. Do you often 4bet QQ preflop? Why wouldn't he be leading with JJ/TT here? I know I would. I represented a high PP preflop.

Originally Posted by bigslikk

My conclusion is that- as is common with large bets- villain has a marginal holding. QK , JT, or QJ. Either would've been quiet preflop, led the flop, continued the turn w/ a blank, and have confidence still on the river (he didn't overbet it like a missed draw or made set, either...)

Villain is NOT raising TJ/QJ UTG AND calling a 3bet. He is very tight remember?

if he's smart he's calling your threebet with nearly any two suited/connecting cards

Originally Posted by Renton

if he's smart he's calling your threebet with nearly any two suited/connecting cards

guess so. i really don't see him raising those 2 hands in the first place though.

he has 77+ AJ+ and if he's smart he isn't folding any of these hands ands to your reraise except maybe AJo or something

Originally Posted by Renton

he has 77+ AJ+ and if he's smart he isn't folding any of these hands ands to your reraise except maybe AJo or something

most tight players don't raise that range UTG

if by tight you mean good tight then yes they do

if by tight you mean weak tight, then no they don't

you didn't specify however

Originally Posted by Renton

if by tight you mean good tight then yes they do

if by tight you mean weak tight, then no they don't

you didn't specify however

he did not play many hands. i don't have any stats, but he was not involved very often at all. there's even decent players around ftr that don't raise that range utg.

I have raised that in EP when big stacked
although I am as good as many players here

BTW, I am pretty sure 55 is in his range as well

EDIT: I wanted to say I am NOT as good as many players here
wow that sounded cocky before

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by Renton

if by tight you mean good tight then yes they do

if by tight you mean weak tight, then no they don't

you didn't specify however

he did not play many hands. i don't have any stats, but he was not involved very often at all. there's even decent players around ftr that don't raise that range utg.

dude, its only like 7% the 169 hands

I raise 10% UTG at FR and consider myself tight

alrighty then

if he's a tight and passive player (which remains to be mentioned), then he's not raising that range, but a tag is. Even a tight tag. When i was a 14/7 nit, i raised those hands.

guess i just haven't been around long enough then. i don't see too many guys raising that range UTG but maybe i should pay more attention. i do think the fact that i have the Kh changes things quite a bit though.

Originally Posted by Renton

if he's a tight and passive player (which remains to be mentioned), then he's not raising that range, but a tag is. Even a tight tag. When i was a 14/7 nit, i raised those hands.

Am I missing something? You mention 77+ AJ+ ... I agree that those hands are in his range...however QJo/JTo do not seem to be in that 7%...neither are "nearly any two suited/connecting cards" ... I don't understand the point you are trying to make.

I mean, I can see where he might throw in a raise with those hands periodically, so they can't entirely be tossed out, but they would definitely be the exception.

he either has very little here or a whole lot. Bet size on the river isnt horrible so i call.

I think were assuming hes good because hes deep and tight, it is only 50nl ffs.