KK flopped nut flush draw oop

UTG is 22/9 over 50 hands, no reads. Button is 27/9/2, seems reasonably solid.

Play and plan?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP3 ($369.20)
CO ($476.60)
Button ($434.70)
Hero ($417.90)
BB ($114.10)
UTG ($311.30)
UTG+1 ($104.30)
MP1 ($375.90)
MP2 ($365.80)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, K.
UTG calls $4, 5 folds, Button calls $4, Hero raises to $24, 1 fold, UTG calls $20, Button calls $20.

Flop: ($76) J, 8, A (3 players)
Hero...

I'd lead for $55 here. You would be repping AK here... I think there's fold equity and you have the nut flush draw.

Here's a stupid question:

would bet/3bet all in be too reckless?

Generally I'd say you have a lot of fold equity, and if called you have upto 10 outs...

I like lead, anywhere from $55 to pot.

Anyone here dare to checkraise all in on flop?

bet/3bet all in.

Edit: hmmmmm, not sure now i think about it.

This is a long post. Readers beware!

1). If either villan has A-x(diamond), they are probably going to at least call the flop bet, if not raise. If they don't have a diamond, they will probably fold.

2). If either villan has SC's (flush on flop), they are probably going to raise or push on the flop.

3). If either villan has a PP (diamond), they might call a medium sized bet on the flop (10-10+). However, even if they do hit their flush it would be tough to imagine that they would play for stacks.

4). If either villan has a set, they are probably going to raise or push on the flop.

5). If either villan has anything else, they will probably fold to any bet on the flop.

- I don't think either villan has A-K.


How are we doing against villans ranges?

Against A-xo(diamond), you are a 30/70 underdog.

Against A-x(no diamond), you are essentially 50/50.

Against SC's (flush on flop), you are a 25/75 underdog.

Against smaller PP's (with a diamond), you are a 90/10 favorite

Against sets on the flop, you are a 35/65 underdog.

You are significantly favored over all other hands that either villan might be holding. None of those hands will play past the flop if you bet, unless they decide to bluff (10% chance of a bluff, HOH).


How likely is it that either villan is holding these combinations of hands?

A-x (with a diamond): 10%

A-x (no diamond): 10%.

SC's (flush): <1%, considering that you are also holding a diamond, and the odds of flopping a flush are less than 1:100.

A pocket pair(with a diamond): 15%

A flopped set: <1%

Anything else: ~60%


What line maximizes value against this range?

Well, you are an underdog against A-x(diamond). However, with a bet/3bet line, i would imagine that most of their A-x range would be folding, except Ax-Qd, and sometimes Ax-10d.

Against A-x(no diamond), you will usually only get called if they don't fold. A turn bet would probably be enough to get them to fold their hand, as long as it is around 1/2PSB (also a good price for you to see the river for if you don't make your flush on the turn).

Againt SC's, you will not be able to get them to fold on the flop.

Against a pocket pair(diamond), your bet might get called. If you do get called, i would lead 1/2PSB on the turn, whether the turn was a diamond or not. If the turn isn't a diamond, those PP's with a diamond might call considering that they are getting okay odds to see if they can river a flush. If the turn is a diamond, you might get raised (which then pot commits them), or at least a call and you can go ahead and value bet river (1/4-1/3PSB).

Against a flopped set, you will rarely get them to fold on the flop.

Against any other hand, it is very likely that your opponent will be folding to any bet.

-I am not sure how A-x(diamond) will play the flop. So, i am assuming that they will raise 25%, call 50%, fold 25%.

-I am not sure how A-x(no diamond) will play the flop. So, i am assuming that they will fold 80%, call 20%


Summary:

If you get raised on the flop, you are probably against flopped flushes, sets, or A-xd. Assuming that all hands have an equal probability of being held (after the flop raise, obviously if put against a whole range of hands the probabilities are different), you only get villan to fold out probably 25% of his range to a 3bet (the weaker A-xd hands, sometimes sets). ~75% of his range here will still play for stacks, and against that range you are probably ~35/65. Considering the pot odds i think a shove is probably best. Since bet/call is a weak line, and you most likely won't get to see the river card and try to make your flush.

If you get called on the flop, you are probably against A-xd, A-x(no diamond), or smaller PP's (1 diamond). You are favored against this range of hands (assuming all hands have an equal probability of being held), so making a 1/2PSB lead would probably be best. This way, most the A-x(no diamond) hands will probably now give up if they called you on the flop, and smaller PP's (1 diamond) might call the turn getting okay odds to see if they can catch a 4th diamond on the river. Plus, you lose the least against A-x(1 diamond) hands, and get to see the river for a reasonable price.

And if they fold, you avoid playing a big pot OOP with a hand that is basically just a big draw.

Thanks for the long analysis Vi. I don't want to take anything away from it, but look again at the stats and pre-flop action. An UTG open limp and a button limp behind from reasonably aggressive pre-flop players. I don't think these are Axo almost ever. Axs sure, pocket pairs, suited connectors/gappers, maybe offsuit connectors. So I think the hands that hit this flop in any way are:

1. Axs for TPNK
2. PP's lower than 77 with one diamond for a weak flush draw
3. T9o with one diamond for a weak but tempting combo draw
4. suited diamond connectors or gappers for the flush
5. maybe 88 for set

How do these hands play to a $50 c-bet? How do they play to a check?

If I had thought through this before I played, it would have changed a lot. That's the danger of playing 6+ tables for me... I don't think quickly enough to adjust ranges based on previous action. When I saw this flop I just thought, nut flush draw, get in AI, get it AI.

Yeah, i really only noticed that your opp's were loose, not that they were LAGGY. I also forgot many of the offsuit connecting hands that either villan could be holding. All in all, my earlier post was a "long but incomplete" analysis. No offense taken.

How do these hands play to a $50 c-bet? How do they play to a check?

1. Axs for TPNK

a). to a c-bet, these hands will usually raise, and sometimes call.
b). when checked to, these hands will usually bet, and sometimes check.

2. PP's lower than 77 with one diamond for a weak flush draw

a). to a c-bet, these hands will usually fold, sometimes call, and sometimes raise.
b). when checked to, these hands will almost always bet. Obviously they would much rather steal this on the flop than play their hand as a weak flush.

3. T9o with one diamond for a weak but tempting combo draw

a). to a c-bet, these hands will probably call/raise equal %'s of the time.
b). when checked to, these hands will usually bet, and sometimes check.

4. suited diamond connectors or gappers for the flush

a). to a c-bet, (unless they are holding Qd-Jd) i think they are trying to get AI on this flop.
b). when checked to, these hands will almost always bet, rarely check.

5. maybe 88 for set

I agree this is probably the only set combination that either villan could be holding. But, same as the flopped flushes, i think this hand is trying to get AI on the flop, and always betting if checked to.

I think multitablings dangers are far outweighed by the rewards of being able to play against 50+ players at once.

Results? (not that they matter )

I agree with almost everything except 1. I think an ace with a weak kicker here folds to a c-bet. No flush draw, strong possibility I have TP with a better kicker, I don't think they're raising.

So I think a c-bet mostly folds the hands we're ahead of or even with (small pp's & Axs) and gets raised by hands we're behind. In contrast, a check draws a bet from a lot of hands that hit this flop in any way (and we're probably about roughly even with that range). So a c-bet looks like a classic bet for information.

It's funny, when I posted this thread I thought that the play I made was terrible, now I'm thinking with a slight adjustment, it might have been right. I'll hold off on posting results for a little bit though.

Anyone disagree with the analysis so far? Anyone think they know the best way to play this now?

Maybe my checkraise all in wasn't so bad?

I'm thinking about a check minraise. It might sound crazy, but there's no risk to giving a free card, and I think we're about even with the range of hands that bet (bare aces, lower flush draws and the rarer flopped sets and flushes). The only hands that we're significantly behind (88 & made flushes), are probably going to 3-bet over our check minraise, and we can safely fold. If they flat call our c/mr, we're in good shape, b/c they're likely drawing to a worse flush. I think bare aces and air fold to a c/r of any size. Thoughts?

I think this highly depends on your reads of villains.

If they are at all fishy (see: are unable to fold top pair) then I think I actually check this flop.

If I think they are solid and can fold top pair weak kicker, I will bet this flop (with the intention of firing a second barrel, after I likely get called on the flop at least)

I'm thinking about a check minraise. It might sound crazy, but there's no risk to giving a free card, and I think we're about even with the range of hands that bet (bare aces, lower flush draws and the rarer flopped sets and flushes). The only hands that we're significantly behind (88 & made flushes), are probably going to 3-bet over our check minraise, and we can safely fold. If they flat call our c/mr, we're in good shape, b/c they're likely drawing to a worse flush. I think bare aces and air fold to a c/r of any size. Thoughts?

c/min raise is a great idea, for all of your above mentioned reasons.