I agree with almost everything except 1. I think an ace with a weak kicker here folds to a c-bet. No flush draw, strong possibility I have TP with a better kicker, I don't think they're raising.

So I think a c-bet mostly folds the hands we're ahead of or even with (small pp's & Axs) and gets raised by hands we're behind. In contrast, a check draws a bet from a lot of hands that hit this flop in any way (and we're probably about roughly even with that range). So a c-bet looks like a classic bet for information.

It's funny, when I posted this thread I thought that the play I made was terrible, now I'm thinking with a slight adjustment, it might have been right. I'll hold off on posting results for a little bit though.

Anyone disagree with the analysis so far? Anyone think they know the best way to play this now?