KK UTG on one colour flop. Push?

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players

Stack sizes:
Hero: $115.85
UTG+1: $57.60
MP1: $144.70
MP2: $96.50
MP3: $101.75
CO: $104
Button: $24
SB: $102.40
BB: $116

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with K K
Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $13.5, 5 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: J 5 Q ($28.5, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $19, Hero

I really suspect AA here for a tight player, (I only had 50 hands on him with stats 12/3.5 in PT), but if so, a big raise or push from me must be very scary for the oponent on this flop right? Calling seems wrong, but I could reason that I now am behind AA, QQ and JJ and then fold?
Thoughts?

I think preflop is really bad, making this flop utterly tough. I think we have to fold or stack off and not like it.

without a read that he pf re-raises light or bets hard into draws this is a fold.

I dont like your preflopcall at all with no reads. as played, I like to c/r flop

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

I think preflop is really bad, making this flop utterly tough. I think we have to fold or stack off and not like it.

Hmm 12/3.5 over 50 hands doesn't mean all that much other than he's raising with premium hands... Which means i don't think he'd 3-bet an UTG raiser with AQ here, leaving AK,JJ+ maybe. 4-betting i find always makes them either fold or push which we invariably call and its AA or KK.

PokerStove shows:
Board: Js Qs 5s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.259% 47.61% 01.65% 9899 342.00 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 50.741% 49.10% 01.65% 10207 342.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

Meaning if you tag him as 3-betting JJ+,AKs,AKo you're still 50/50. HOWEVER the only thing calling your shove is going to be JJ,QQ,AA which you're a huge dog against.
Therefore idk if i like shoving, is calling and seeing a turn a bad idea? I'm guessing another spade is good for us. Then we can check and see what villain does?

Clar

pf call is super duper standard wtf are you guys talking about

i guess shove the flop, you are probably priced in to take your 40ish % equity vs his range and get it in.

Originally Posted by Clar17y

PokerStove shows:
Board: Js Qs 5s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.259% 47.61% 01.65% 9899 342.00 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 50.741% 49.10% 01.65% 10207 342.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

Meaning if you tag him as 3-betting JJ+,AKs,AKo you're still 50/50. HOWEVER the only thing calling your shove is going to be JJ,QQ,AA which you're a huge dog against.
Therefore idk if i like shoving, is calling and seeing a turn a bad idea? I'm guessing another spade is good for us. Then we can check and see what villain does?
Clar

Against QQ and JJ I'll still have 11 outs (11x4 ~44%) since he wouldn't hold a spade then, right? So I wouldn't really be "huge dog" against it I think, but AA would be a big problem.

Interesting that opinions differ here. Often I would push this preflop, but not always. Calling on the flop...any other opinions on that? Then I would have to fold to a big bet on a nospade turn, right?

Another thing. As MP2, would you call with AA (no spade), if UTG check push on this flop? (Hero stats PT ~ 18/6).

i like the call, standard stop and go strategy. Post flop dont like it I usually fold these unable to decide. I have tried a check raise all in and been successfull. Not sure i wouald try it here its a big stack to blow off, his range must be JJ+ maybe AKs but i doubt it. His bet implies he has a big hand but wants to make a flush draw pay so probably hasnt got the A spades.
All in all i fold

lol. wtf? are you people only calling 3-bets with AA?

CR AI.

Villian's range is super tight here. Fold and get away cheap. Any plus EV here is super small, and probably non-existent. Preflop is standard considering you should almost never 4bet at .5/1

we slowplayed preflop and should now be shoving c/r.

I estimate we're, at most, 35% equity (probably closer to 30% since villian's range is mainly AA), we have miniscule FE, and villian is a standard super nit. Felting is not the best option. Calling may be better than folding since we do have equity, and standard super nits are always scared without the nuts. We'll see a cheap showdown here a decent amount of time. No need in felting when behind when villian will call off non-spade AA yet not push, and I think a fold is still better than a crai.