This Month's Stats, WTF IS GOING ON

I'm not winning as much as I should be, nor as much as I had been the 150k hands or so before this, and I'm not sure why. Hopefully one of you gambling degenerate bastards will see something I don't.

You're an insufferable nit and probably not playing enough small pot poker in these super-weak games.

But how much did you win? (no seriously)

Originally Posted by Deanglow

But how much did you win? (no seriously)

Post what you think about the stats first.

WTSD%/W$SD shows you fold to many marginal hands. If these are larger pots, you may be losing a ton of $$$. Pot control and see more showdowns. Your W$SF may be low too, but FR may be a different animal, so I reserve the right to retract that statement. I would hazard a guess this is from too much C/C'ing and C/F'ing on the river.

Too tight
It's probably a matter of style, but I played about 2% looser at EP and 10% looser in LP
W$WSF is also kinda low

Originally Posted by bbqsquirrel

W$WSF is also kinda low

Agreed. Get better at playing big bet chicken.

It seems like your turn and river aggression are kind of low. I also think you need to steal more blinds.

his vpip/pfr is about standard for this game. I don't think he CBets enough, which ties into not playing small ball.

Some of the suggestions so far are wrong, some are right.

1. VPIP/PFR is fine. You're playing all the big hands you should in fullring, and that's all you need to do vs poor players. Vs good players you need to use your image to keep them from exploiting you. I doubt a 20/16 will make more than a 13/9 in this game when both are equally skilled.

2. AtSB% is fine. It doesn't need to be higher, but it definitely can be. Pushing the edge of stealing the blinds doesn't necessarily mean your winrate will increase because there will be backlash into other aspects of the game. I have done everthing from 25% AtSB to 65% AtSB and have found very little difference in overall LP results.

3. W$WSF is low because you are running poorly, most likely. Sample size is super super small for attempting to calculate totals.

4. WtSD is too high, and I'll get to why next.

5. Turn and river AF is too low. They should both be at least 2, and they should probably both be about the same. You raise those by value betting more thinly. This will make WtSD go down, but WR go up. I personally wish I could be at 3 turn and river AF, but not quite, it seems.

6. Your cbet is kinda low, but not necessarily too low. People kinda forget what the purpose of cbetting when we're not going for obvious value is. We want to cbet enough so if we're never ever called or raised on the flop with anything, we'll make money. I do not advocate a ton of cbetting, and I personally think I am very good at it because I believe my thinking opponents can't correctly play back at me when I do it, especially since I try to choose to do them on flops where I can double barrel more often. I'm around 55% cbet. They say 60% is low, but my WR says otherwise.

7. The games are harder.

8. I give out too much awesome information.

1. I would tighten up in early position. I used to be a proponent of a pretty loose strategy under the gun (i would raise 22+ AJs+ KQs AQ+ and some suited connectors). I think the games have gotten a little worse to the point where this range may be fairly spewy (especially if you aren't double barreling enough postflop, which is very likely given other tendencies of yours that i will get into in a second). Try dumping the KQs, the AJs, and the 22-55 for a while and see how that works for you. You will still be raising a wide enough range that you can't be totally exploited by set miners, and you'll be getting away from their sets when they flop good vs u, assuming you play well.

2. More on early position play, you need to start auto 2 and 3 barreling vs nits. They will give you insane amounts of respect when you play hands in early position.

3. To compensate for all those hands you are going to start folding in early position, and to increase your vpip/pfr a little in general, you need to open or isolate from the button about 30-50% more than you are now. This is really really big. You are leaving so much money on the table its sick. There are ppl at 100nl on stars who fold their blinds to steal so much that you should be raising 100% of your hands against them.

4. More on opening up: whenever you have nits you your immediate left, you need to treat the cutoff and hijack like 2nd and 3rd buttons, opening very close to the same range you would from the button.

5. Isolate more people. If some 20/8 tagdonk limps in mid to late position, and you are on the button or cutoff, you could probably raise almost any two profitably to isolate. When i play in weak 5/1 and 1/2 games, i often isolate hands as bad as K5o and shit against them, because its just free money.

6. Defend your blinds more. A lot more. You know those nits i said you can open any two into their blinds against? You're one of them. Call button stealers and c/r bluff flops (a good flop would be J63 with two spades). 3bet people with big cards like ATo and stuff. Call button stealers out of the blinds and lead flops. In general try to develop a donkbetting game that consists of more than just sets/draws.

7. The crux of all this is that your won/sf sucks. A good players wsf at these levels should be at least 40% and yours is barely 30. This is enormous. When a tag raises in mid position, and you coldcall in position, and the flop is J82 with two spades, and he continuation bets, and you raise... whew... your range needs to consist of more than JJ/88/22/T9s. You need to be capable of having a flush draw, 33, KQ, 97s, QTs, and AA. Having a range like that is going to significantly increase your won/sf.

Your W$WSF is ridiculously bad, learn to play poker is my advice.

Renton is spot on.

I'll only add that a little of it is kinda spewy if you have an aggro image.

My principal disagreement with wufwugy is that there are spots where the bad tags are giving way too much value that super-tight play doesn't exploit. Pushing these spots will also inspire the other players to pay you off more with little risk because they will pick terrible spots to do it.

BTW: My UTG range is AQ/77/Jacks or better s00ted.

I have recently come to realize how different Renton and I play. I am the quintessential nit, and it's funny since he really helped me figure out how to nit well. My style is definitely easier than his, and seems to have lower variance. Honestly, I do not know which one makes a higher winrate, but if any does, it's gonna be his. I personally would like to not be any higher than 10 pfr. I have played very lag before, however, it wasn't as positionally oriented as his. I opened UTG super wide and didn't double barrel much. His style is definitely for the more skilled and more durable, and is representative of higher skill levels needed for bigger games where exploiting better regs is more important.

40% W$WSF? You double barreling everything or something? You definitely do more than I expected. And do you know the winrates of some of the players who play your style?

And a word for spoon, if you're gonna open up your game pre, you need to figure out how to cbet and db a lot and well. I do not know how or want to do this currently so I haven't made those alterations.

And I believe that the more donkish the opposition, the more nit works as opposed to lag. Learning lag may be very good since the games are getting less donkish, though.

Originally Posted by wufwugy

My style is definitely easier than his, and seems to have lower variance.

I disagree. Taking away pots on early streets against weak players is about the lowest variance profit there is. The wild ride comes from putting in all the money to hit something then hoping to get paid off, be good and hold. Then again I've never been a deep money value and bluff kinda guy which is another reason I don't default to deep money play.

I also think you're vastly over-estimating how much this opens up your game. It's a simple adjustment to drop some marginal/loss-leader hands from EP, then open up an extra hand every 1-2 orbits from position when you smell easy money. That steady stream of small pots is my bread and butter and the full ring guys are soo soft compared to 6-max.

It's also pretty sick how often we don't even see a flop when I raise/re-raise preflop after a limp or a weak opener. Although I wonder if playing less deep sometimes plays into this as I don't give optimists good implied pot odds.

wufwugy, the worse the opposition, the more hands you should play ducy?

Originally Posted by Fnord

BTW: My UTG range is AQ/77/Jacks or better s00ted.

Is this because of the 50BB strat, or just std?

Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms

Is this because of the 50BB strat, or just std?

A lot of reasons. If I've been pushing people around a bunch, I don't want to open UTG with many weak hands because they'll probably pick a good hand looking to make a stand with against the short-buy donk with a PFR well into the double digits (over a small sample size.)

Also, none of my ranges are absolute. If I open UTG, there still is a non-zero chance I have something like 78s.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by wufwugy

My style is definitely easier than his, and seems to have lower variance.

I disagree. Taking away pots on early streets against weak players is about the lowest variance profit there is. The wild ride comes from putting in all the money to hit something then hoping to get paid off, be good and hold. Then again I've never been a deep money value and bluff kinda guy which is another reason I don't default to deep money play.

I also think you're vastly over-estimating how much this opens up your game. It's a simple adjustment to drop some marginal/loss-leader hands from EP, then open up an extra hand every 1-2 orbits from position when you smell easy money. That steady stream of small pots is my bread and butter and the full ring guys are soo soft compared to 6-max.

It's also pretty sick how often we don't even see a flop when I raise/re-raise preflop after a limp or a weak opener. Although I wonder if playing less deep sometimes plays into this as I don't give optimists good implied pot odds.

Renton advocates around a 20/16 for 50/1, I'm betting. I was addressing that, and it's a big change than 12/10. Personally, I have begun reducing some EP play for LP play, as advocated here. I'm probably looser in EP than most here.

And I do not think the players are as weak as you say in the way you say. I guess maybe at 50/1, but not 1/2. I'm finding limpers and callers showing up with big hands or big aggression more often than I used to, I think. Disguised players are flop raising overs or small pairs or draws or air more often now than they used to. They're also floating both flop and turn more often. Not knowing how much is a problem for me. I figure this can be combated by cbetting less or triple barreling/3betting flops more. I choose the former because I suck at poker, and I'm not interested in spending a ton of time and frustration figuring out/becoming comfortable with a new and possibly better strategy.

And I do steal from nits/poor players a bit, just not as much as lags. I also cbet a bit, just not as much as other tags it seems.

Originally Posted by Renton

wufwugy, the worse the opposition, the more hands you should play ducy?

Yeah, I dunno what I was thinking.

I guess I was just trying to make sense of what I've seen of winrates from both styles. Like I've told you, I'm not seeing better winrates from lags. I have very limited knowledge on that, though. What are lags pulling at fullring? I'm not sure if it should be more, theoretically, or if it's just that lags tend to be better at poker than tighter players so their postflop skills make more, not having anything to do with their preflop structure exclusively.

Also, Renton, I recall not too long ago that you were telling me a number of times how underrated and profitable nit/tag is at fullring. Has your opinion changed?

Compared to 6-max, the 1/2 full ring aggression at Poker Stars is laughable. Probably a matter of perspective. My looser short-buy image might also feed into this as I put HUD-TAggs into value mode.

FWIW, I don't consider myself a LAgg. sTAgg that can pick up on predictable players and gambles it up with terrible ones.

With my limit background, I feel comfortable being a little more showdown driven. It's really good feedback on how often people are really loosening up in certain spots.

Yeah, the skill sets at fullring are a bit reduced than sixmax.

sTAgg = super tag?

Another reason I prefer tag is because I hate being 3bet, and I am very poor at responding to them without a hand. Fortunately, 1/2 doesn't much pay attention to how you respond to 3bets. The nittier I am, the more I'm not 3bet, and the more I get away with 3betting. Kinda like sauce's sixmax post. At least, that's how I'd like to be able to do it.

I would honestly prefer to never be called or raised ever. I figure the easiest way to get that is by playing tight or just looking like I'm tight. I am working at loosening up a little, though. Funny, I used to play 24/20.

semi-Tight
Aggressive

Fairly tight play has always been a core value for me when I've done well.

i think 17/14 sounds about right for 100nl.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

learn to play poker is my advice.

nice post

Originally Posted by Dislexsik

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

learn to play poker is my advice.

nice post

I don't think it's fair to dismiss ISF's comment as being without content. It's basically a brief version of everyone elses recommendations

I looked back to my databases of the past few months, at 100nl especially, and I noticed that my VP$IP was about 1.5-2% lower than it used to be and that my W$WSF was about 6-7% less than it used to be. Also, my turn and river aggression numbers were both a little lower than they were before.

I went looking for a source of the problem, and I think I've found it. Around the middle of last month I had a stint at 200nl were I broke even for a number of hands before moving back down to 100nl, and it seems that since I moved back down, I've been playing much more passively (to say the least). So maybe it was a confidence thing or something, I don't know.

Thanks to everyone for posting. As soon as I read the first couple of posts I already knew what the problem was, and I'm not sure why it didn't occur to me before since it's pretty frickin' obvious now. Maybe I just needed a wake-up call or something, I don't know.

i think you need to play 25nl and actually outplay people rather than just making a hand

eg, you need to learn what they have and how to play that against them rather than just playing you own hand, which is really what every full ring US-only player is doing right now, and what 6 max players most certainly arent doing (unless they are breakeven 12/10 nits)

I played a few sessions with you spoon at 100 nl and didn't see any glaring mistakes. Are you calling too much ? I'll put it this way, I wasn't looking to induce anything from you, but the other players I was.