My TPTK vs his turn c/r

Villain 16/10/3 over 115 hands. I didnt notice until after hand but he c/raises a lot over my sample (20-30%).
Wat do we want to be doing here?
Also we thinking flop check behind is good?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP3 ($27.50)
CO ($97)
Hero ($122.65)
SB ($22.15)
BB ($100)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($31.90)
MP1 ($132.80)
MP2 ($114)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, MP1 calls $1, 2 folds, CO calls $1, Hero raises to $7, 1 fold, BB calls $6, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, CO folds.

Flop: ($17.50) 6, 2, 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($17.50) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $12, BB raises to $32, ??

wow this is gross. I think call and fold a lot of rivers but i think this is a set a lot and if you think he has a set too much then you could just fold here. Other factors like timing and how many of my tables he is on would influence my decision here.

Also I dislike the flop check because your 7x raise pre should be pretty scary and he's likely setmining here a lot.

i pay the man money

Originally Posted by badgers

Also I dislike the flop check because your 7x raise pre should be pretty scary and he's likely setmining here a lot.

Right... which means he usually has a pocket pair and how many of them do you think he'll fold to a cbet on that board?

call PFR % can help you narrow v's hand here.

If his call PFR% is like 5 or less, he's probably not calling very much with broadways, and mostly pocket pairs. Also 3-bet% will help you eliminate AK/AQ from his holding as he may likely to 3-bet at least AK.

Is he positionally aware? If so, I don't see such a player calling preflop with a lot that you're ahead of after the turn action.

Tough spot fo sho.

fold

Originally Posted by daven

fold

Yup, this.

Originally Posted by Keilah

Originally Posted by badgers

Also I dislike the flop check because your 7x raise pre should be pretty scary and he's likely setmining here a lot.

Right... which means he usually has a pocket pair and how many of them do you think he'll fold to a cbet on that board?

often enough and there are shit loads of cards you can double barrell and you have 6outs and a BDFD so that's quite a bit of equity.

if this unknown guy c/r a lot , i'm curious and want to see his river action. YOU should fold TPTK if a regular nit like me c/r in this spot, haha.

Originally Posted by pokerfan

if this unknown guy c/r a lot , i'm curious and want to see his river action. YOU should fold TPTK if a regular nit like me c/r in this spot, haha.

Good point!
I missed that Keilah mentioned that villain check-raises 20-30% over his sample. In this case I call turn and call 1/2 river, but I think I fold to a push (unless villain has a crazy aggression level on river).
As in this case villain's line seems more like he doesn't believe Hero has the A and thinks Hero is betting a scare card.

Originally Posted by Keilah

Originally Posted by badgers

Also I dislike the flop check because your 7x raise pre should be pretty scary and he's likely setmining here a lot.

Right... which means he usually has a pocket pair and how many of them do you think he'll fold to a cbet on that board?

Fire a second barrel then.

As terrible as it is game-theory wise to bet-fold the top of your range, I think this guy has a set 100% of the time.

Where do you draw the line for a high cr %? OP said 20-30% was a lot.

As already said, you gotta bet the flop.

It looks like he's pot building and we gotta fold our hand that's already face up.

2barreling and equity are good reasons to bet flop.

I think 10%-ish is a reasonable and hard to play against c/r frequency.