Need some clarification on if we call with the nuts here

Blinds are 2/5 with effective stacks of $650.

Hero has AhQc and raises it UTG to 25 and puck calls.

Flop: Kd Qd Js (Pot: $60)

Hero checks, button checks.

Turn: Ts

Hero bets $50, villain shoves for $625. Hero?

We assume villain is obviously freerolling us with Axd or s. (With the chance he does just have a bare Ace) Do we call or fold? Both players are solid etc. I don't want comments on flop play because I wasn't actually hero in this case, this is just how it played out.

looks like you are calling 575 to win 80 assuming he has to have at least Ax. If his range is AdX + Axdd and he's called an UTG raise then it seems like a fold.

wait.... I don't understand this situation. Why are we folding the nuts again?

Originally Posted by Im_new

wait.... I don't understand this situation. Why are we folding the nuts again?

The pot after villains shove is $735. We have to call $575, therefore we need to have 43.9% ( 575/[575 + 735] ).

IF villain is only doing this with Adxd or Asxs, then we only have ~40% equity. So it would be a fold. We just need to figure out if that's the only hands he would do this with (which tbh idk about).

Originally Posted by Im_new

wait.... I don't understand this situation. Why are we folding the nuts again?

because we're calling to chop and we're getting freerolled

ok, I understand that, and its very interesting. I thought about it before I posted my last comment.

hmmm.... so if I were villain, this move should be automatic if I were playing against a "perfect, number munching Hero who is aware of this equation." If I were villian and I knew that you were only calling when you hold Adxd and Asxs, it has to be +EV for me to shove over with a much wider range including non-nut hands like TT-KK (not saying that's what villian likely has.) And I really suspect that villian's range is wider than Adxd and Asxs because of this thought process.

idk.... it seems like this play is unexploitable versus Hero...(?)

And if it is, I'm adding it to my arsenal.


is my thinking correct?

oh i (obviously) didnt notice that there were 2 flush draws and not just one. i don't think this changes too much though.

Fold and tell him you laid down a set.