NL:$50 AQs flops a flush draw

Villain is 60/10 after 10 hands. So he probably is loose and not sure how aggressive yet. With his flop bet I'm not sure there is much FE here but I'm not in that bad of shape against JJ+ anyways. Is this ok?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) http://www.flopturnriver.com/reviews/Online-Poker-PokerStars.php#converter]Poker Stars[/url] Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($127.95)
UTG ($8.50)
UTG+1 ($87.10)
MP1 ($49.70)
Hero ($55.35)
CO ($55.90)
Button ($49.25)
SB ($64.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, Q.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $2.5, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.50, 4 folds.

Flop: ($5.75) T, 5, 2 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $5, Hero raises to $17.5, UTG+1 raises to $35.5, Hero raises to $52.85, UTG+1 calls $17.35.

Villain really set up this hand nicely to get allin by raising 5xbb preflop and almost potting it on the flop. It's pretty obvious you're up against TT+ here, which means you have 2 possibilities of 0 overcard outs (TT, AA), 1 possibility for 2 overcard outs (JJ) and 2 possibilities for 1 overcard (QQ, KK), giving you a total average of one overcard out. I guess you could throw 55 and 22 in there with the 10% pfr, but I'd discount those more than TT+, reason being...

Those big 5x raises with no openers are usually big pairs or big broadways that want to drive up the action quickly and build a big pot (which happened here!)

So, you most likely have anywhere from 8 to 15 outs, (8 clubs since Tc may make quads or a boat with another set) and after you initially raise on the flop it's going in no matter what anyway, not much else you can do. Nice hand.

Originally Posted by Setzy

Villain really set up this hand nicely to get allin by raising 5xbb preflop and almost potting it on the flop. It's pretty obvious you're up against TT+ here, which means you have 2 possibilities of 0 overcard outs (TT, AA), 1 possibility for 2 overcard outs (JJ) and 2 possibilities for 1 overcard (QQ, KK), giving you a total average of one overcard out.
... Nice hand.

what is so nice about getting all-in with 11-12 (the average here) outs with zero fold equity?

to OP, no you don't have fold equity, and most of the time your Q isn't an out, and sometimes your A isn't either.

i would puke for chasing this hand.

he is sending you such a huge message, and you are still taking the bait, hanging your hat solely on a flush draw and getting no odds to draw.

wow.

i dont mind the flop raise, if you think its a cbet (which you've admitted you dont have the read for), but RRing again is HORRIBLE SPEW.

hope you learned from this hand, and hope you will learn from the responses you will get to this thread.

I don't believe you were hero in this hand.

also, given villains wacky stats I don't think this is that bad a play. He could show up with the flush draw also, and he is definitely doin this with hands weaker than a set.

Originally Posted by Setzy

after you initially raise on the flop it's going in no matter what anyway

this is a leak

EDIT: I mean raising that much on the flop is a leak...not the thought of being committed after such a raise. Sorry if that was confusing.

I bet the flop so I can 3bet push to give me more fold equity. Getting it in as 50/50, likely 45/55 at worst is not bad.

Once we raise the flop we're pretty much committed, getting ~2-1 pot odds on the rest. Obviously he's not folding once he 3-bets, but we still have odds to play.

I don't like getting my stack in on a draw, but I really can't see a better way to play this - Anyonce care to suggest a better line?

Originally Posted by NLHE lahooozaher

Villain is 60/10 after 10 hands. So he probably is loose and not sure how aggressive yet.

This is meaningless.

Originally Posted by Warpe

Originally Posted by NLHE lahooozaher

Villain is 60/10 after 10 hands. So he probably is loose and not sure how aggressive yet.

This is meaningless.

Originally Posted by Jimmy Mac

I don't like getting my stack in on a draw, but I really can't see a better way to play this - Anyonce care to suggest a better line?

you could just call...or fold preflop

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Originally Posted by Warpe

Originally Posted by NLHE lahooozaher

Villain is 60/10 after 10 hands. So he probably is loose and not sure how aggressive yet.

This is meaningless.

Thank you guys, for your input on the hand . If you guys say this you could at least give an opinion on the hand.

I don't believe you were hero in this hand.

It was me. What can I say? I have no idea how to play a strongish draw. Stoving against JJ+ I'm only 47.5/52.5 dog so I guess it's not that bad. He had AA this time and I hit my draw which was nice .

Like i said later in that post. I think the play was fine and the odds are that guy is pretty loose like you said.

Those stats aren't meaningless, the odds that a normal player picks up 6 hands to play in the first cycle is pretty unlikely.

Now if the stats showed him to be tight, I would say they don't matter.

Once you raise the flop that much (unless it's a pure bluff), you pass the commitment threshold (PNL topic) because you've put more than 1/3 of your starting stack in the pot. You are going all the way with the hand. If you don't want to pass the commitment threshold, you shouldn't raise the flop. However, villain isn't always going to have a hand and sometimes he will fold to the flop raise. In this instance, villain did wake up with a hand, but we do not have any other choice, it's all in time.

Originally Posted by NLHE lahooozaher

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Originally Posted by Warpe

Originally Posted by NLHE lahooozaher

Villain is 60/10 after 10 hands. So he probably is loose and not sure how aggressive yet.

This is meaningless.

Thank you guys, for your input on the hand . If you guys say this you could at least give an opinion on the hand.

Think about your raise size on the flop and why you're raising. He's raising 5xbb pre (too big), so raising him 3.5x his bet is overkill when you're trying to buy a free card. I'd even (*gasp*) consider minraising him here because of what's left behind, so if he reraises you can call without committing the rest of your stack. You're basically forced to 4-bet a/i here because there's no way you're folding with what you've got left (if you're calling). A smaller raise will still have the desired effect of slowing him down if he's not a donkey and all he's got is an overpair.

Originally Posted by archangel95

Those stats aren't meaningless, the odds that a normal player picks up 6 hands to play in the first cycle is pretty unlikely.

Now if the stats showed him to be tight, I would say they don't matter.

First, this makes absolutely no sense.

Second, the stats are meaningless and shouldn't relied on for nearly any sort of judgment after only 10 hands. If you think otherwise then you don't understand as much about statistics as you think you do.

Originally Posted by Warpe

Think about your raise size on the flop and why you're raising. He's raising 5xbb pre (too big), so raising him 3.5x his bet is overkill when you're trying to buy a free card. I'd even (*gasp*) consider minraising him here because of what's left behind, so if he reraises you can call without committing the rest of your stack.

Thanks for replying Warpe. A while ago I use to minraise with draws at times. But after thinking about this strategy it doesn't seem like it's very good. Sometimes I'll buy a free card, but I'll never have FE which is something I want. Also if he reraises on the flop I'm going to call but call only to fold the turn? I will say that 3.5x his raise is def. not my normal size and is probably overkill.

If he raised 3-3.5xbb pre then I'd raise him 3x his flop bet.

60%VP$IP after 10 Hands is different than 2% pfr over 700 hands.

It takes the smaller percentage a larger sample to converge on the actual range.

The larger percentage converges much faster for obvious reasons.

Originally Posted by archangel95

60%VP$IP after 10 Hands is different than 2% pfr over 700 hands.

It takes the smaller percentage a larger sample to converge on the actual range.

The larger percentage converges much faster for obvious reasons.

.

No. (using renton's approach to discussion )

Useless is a bit strong of a word maybe, but it seems some people are putting too much faith in that number after only 10 hands.

Maybe this isn't how statistics works but here is my reasoning.

Intuitively this doesn't make sense to me. Logic would seem to dictate that if we had 1326 ping pong balls and 47 of them were red (but we didn't know they were red). It seems like we would have to take many more samples from the group to get an accurate representation of those red balls, especially if in some light the red ball appeared to be white...


Now suppose that 663 of the balls are red. If we were to take samples from that group it would converge toward actual much faster. Atleast that is how I picture it working in my mind.

It seems like the bigger portion of the population the test group you are trying to get information about is, the less trials it would take to get an accurate representation of that group.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by Setzy

Villain really set up this hand nicely to get allin by raising 5xbb preflop and almost potting it on the flop. It's pretty obvious you're up against TT+ here, which means you have 2 possibilities of 0 overcard outs (TT, AA), 1 possibility for 2 overcard outs (JJ) and 2 possibilities for 1 overcard (QQ, KK), giving you a total average of one overcard out.
... Nice hand.

what is so nice about getting all-in with 11-12 (the average here) outs with zero fold equity?

to OP, no you don't have fold equity, and most of the time your Q isn't an out, and sometimes your A isn't either.

To get the thread back OT, wtf else are you meant to do? RR a cbet that on a flop that missed a lot of his range, then we're potfucked. He basically shoved and it's going all in on the turn anyway... I don't get it.

Originally Posted by badgers

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by Setzy

Villain really set up this hand nicely to get allin by raising 5xbb preflop and almost potting it on the flop. It's pretty obvious you're up against TT+ here, which means you have 2 possibilities of 0 overcard outs (TT, AA), 1 possibility for 2 overcard outs (JJ) and 2 possibilities for 1 overcard (QQ, KK), giving you a total average of one overcard out.
... Nice hand.

what is so nice about getting all-in with 11-12 (the average here) outs with zero fold equity?

to OP, no you don't have fold equity, and most of the time your Q isn't an out, and sometimes your A isn't either.

To get the thread back OT, wtf else are you meant to do? RR a cbet that on a flop that missed a lot of his range, then we're potfucked. He basically shoved and it's going all in on the turn anyway... I don't get it.

get ready for it...just call or don't raise so freaking much on the flop that it commits you with a flush draw with maybe 3 overcard outs!

Meh, ok. I read back through the thread and it was covered, sorry. Min raise looks good cos then we often get the free card and can still fold to a shove. Thnx.