NL100 AA vs possible set

Villain is a solid player and he should know I cbet pretty much every time in a situation like this. His stats were 11.2/4.3/4.58 over 900 hands. I haven't seen him play a set like this, usually he check-raised.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($99)
BB ($135.30)
UTG ($337.45)
UTG+1 ($110.45)
MP1 ($62.25)
MP2 ($242.50)
Hero ($100)
CO ($51.10)
Button ($119.45)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, A.
UTG calls $1, 3 folds, Hero raises to $5, 4 folds, UTG calls $4.

Flop: ($11.50) 8, 4, T (2 players)
UTG bets $9, Hero raises to $27, UTG raises to $332.45, ??

I'm getting pretty decent odds to call, but how often does he have me beat here?

what beats you besides 88/TT, doesn't his stats make him too tight to have 44/J9d/Axd. However, he is over 300BBs deep and probably running well. Id convince myself its a draw and call.

This supertight (nitty) guy limps UTG, calls a preflop raise and leads a flop. He suddenly wants to play a big pot right after you tell him that you've got a big hand.

You're toast here almost every time - this is a pretty basic set line. Fold vs the push.

Im not sure what you mean about your odds. You arent far off 1:1 here. Pretty easy fold if he hasnt been getting out of line.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

what beats you besides 88/TT, doesn't his stats make him too tight to have 44...

no. he can just as easily have 44.

set.

I just couldn't trust my read this time and called, and obviously he had a set of tens. The beauty of his line (at least against a fish like me) is that I felt a bit pot committed already. I know this is a huge leak and I'll definately try to do something about it.

At least I got my money back when I hit a set of eights against his kings.

Thanks guys.

3 random thoughts:

1. Leading with a set on a board like this is often an excellent play

2. I think you have to fold

3. Semi-bluffing in this situtation is very strong. Would you have to call if the board was Qd 4c Td instead?

this is one of the easier AA laydowns you'll have the opportunity to make at full ring

You're lucky he didn't call and c/r the turn.

How often does he lead into PFRs? Something to keep track of. A lot of players don't balance their flop-donks well.

BTW, I don't think this is a routine laydown.

Board: 8d Td 4c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.0422 % 37.34% 01.70% { TT+, 88, 44 }
Hand 2: 60.9578 % 59.25% 01.70% { AcAh }

In a way, I feel like you are telling us that every time you have a strong hand and commit about 1/3 of your chips, you feel committed to play to the felt. If this is what you are saying, than yes, this is a huge leak. Personally, against a player this tight, I don't even reraise the flop. He either has a set or he is testing the waters w/ a decent hand like JJ. If he is testing the waters, I don't want to scare him away. If he has a set, I don't want to give him more money just yet. It is possible that he is betting into a big draw, but his he potted it which looks a little big for that. I call his flop bet and let him tell me what he has on the turn. Even if he is fishing, a player like this will definitely tell me if he catches.

Either way, the flop bet isn't terrible, but if you make it you absolutely must be able to lay it down to a push.

Originally Posted by dpe8598

In a way, I feel like you are telling us that every time you have a strong hand and commit about 1/3 of your chips, you feel committed to play to the felt.

Not always, but it happens pretty often in a situation like this where I could easily be ahead. Although I think my downswing might have something to do with that.