NL100: f**ked up river

Villain is 15/12, i chose not to shove the turn because if (even if its unlikely) he chose to do this on turn with AK, he would get away. He could also get away with AQ.

What do you do on this river? c/f, or r/f, or r/c

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($123)
Button ($20)
SB ($24)
Hero (BB) ($100)
UTG ($153.85)
UTG+1 ($57.50)
MP1 ($98)
MP2 ($41.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 9
UTG bets $4, 6 folds, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($8.50) 2, 9, Q (2 players)
Hero bets $5, UTG calls $5

Turn: ($18.50) A (2 players)
Hero bets $10, UTG raises to $31, Hero calls $21

River: ($80.50) Q (2 players)

ewww.... I have no idea...

I was thinking b/f though...

Originally Posted by Im_new

ewww.... I have no idea...

I was thinking b/f though...

i have 60$ behind, i cant really b/f into 80$ with the pot odds :S

This depends so much on how likely he is to float flop with AK and raise the turn with it. His line really really really really looks like AQ/QQ/AA though so there's a strong argument for c/f to a shove.

I don't see any value in leading river, though I am tempted to try and get it in on the turn under the assumption that he doesn't get away from AQ here.

Originally Posted by d0zer

This depends so much on how likely he is to float flop with AK and raise the turn with it. His line really really really really looks like AQ/QQ/AA though so there's a strong argument for c/f to a shove.

I don't see any value in leading river, though I am tempted to try and get it in on the turn under the assumption that he doesn't get away from AQ here.

If we can checkfold this river, but shove any other and get payed off.. this should be huge +ev as we are guaranteed to get value when we got the best hand and we can fold when a Q hit.

Just for my own knowledge really (but this is probably what I would have done):

Why not raise the turn? If he has AK I can see him maybe getting away (have you seen him play a TPTK yet) but AQ would be a little harder to get away from on this board. And if you were to raise would you push?

oh shit, you're right. we can't b/f... I'm guessing c/f works for me.

Originally Posted by lockpull

Just for my own knowledge really (but this is probably what I would have done):

Why not raise the turn? If he has AK I can see him maybe getting away (have you seen him play a TPTK yet) but AQ would be a little harder to get away from on this board. And if you were to raise would you push?

My line smells set and im sure but not confident he could get away from it. either way he cant get away from it on the river when i shove, but we can get away from the hand when the Q lands.

shove turn.....

I don't get leading, what else do you donk here?

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

I don't get leading, what else do you donk here?

this also

terrible spot to lead, as played open shove

Originally Posted by Deanglow

terrible spot to lead, as played open shove

yeah why are we leading a board villain is going to cbet nearly 100 pro-cent

well if he has a hand he is representing on the turn, we are beat, and if he was bluffing, then we arent beat. i cant imagine a fucking worse spot to lead the river. c/c or c/f depending on what you think he's capable of.

Originally Posted by Deanglow

terrible spot to lead, as played open shove

What are you suggesting? c/c donk?

Originally Posted by ZwiFT

Originally Posted by Deanglow

terrible spot to lead, as played open shove

What are you suggesting? c/c donk?

what hands that arent top two pair+ would you also do this with? i dont think leading the flop is that bad, but vs tight aggressive opponents the best line on this type of board is often going to be c/c + c/c + c/something

Originally Posted by nutsinho

Originally Posted by ZwiFT

Originally Posted by Deanglow

terrible spot to lead, as played open shove

What are you suggesting? c/c donk?

what hands that arent top two pair+ would you also do this with? i dont think leading the flop is that bad, but vs tight aggressive opponents the best line on this type of board is often going to be c/c + c/c + c/something

Shouldn't i be afraid of loosing value vs KK+ doing this, at 100NL it seems most regs cant even fold overpairs if i play my set face up

so regs dont value bet overpairs heads up vs no resistance on really dry boards? they also dont barrel scare cards vs weak ranges?

nutsinho, full ring regs auto pot control the turn with some incredibly strong hands. Its probably like the 4th most tilting thing about full ring.

Originally Posted by ZwiFT

Originally Posted by lockpull

Just for my own knowledge really (but this is probably what I would have done):

Why not raise the turn? If he has AK I can see him maybe getting away (have you seen him play a TPTK yet) but AQ would be a little harder to get away from on this board. And if you were to raise would you push?

My line smells set and im sure but not confident he could get away from it. either way he cant get away from it on the river when i shove, but we can get away from the hand when the Q lands.

So, and forgive my basic question here, but we are trying to keep him in the hand on the turn while still using pot control to be able to get away from it when the Q hits (both accomplished my flatting his raise vs shoving turn)? I only ask because (and hopefully one day I might be a deeper thinker in this spot) I think I would have gone broke to AQ/QQ in this hand no matter how it played out.

Originally Posted by Renton

nutsinho, full ring regs auto pot control the turn with some incredibly strong hands. Its probably like the 4th most tilting thing about full ring.

top three?

What a surprise this happened on tilt, where my KK flopped trips three times two nites ago in cash games I played it aggressively and lost all three times. Where on the same nite I lost with AA to AQ twice. The same nite I got reraised all in for fifty bux holding AK preflop only to witness my hand lose to K10. I am in disbelief of what I see at full tilt, and as bad as the play is this kind of stuff happens way way way too much. No matter what anyone says about Stars, bodog shoot even absolute There is nothing like what I see there. Only time I have any confidence my hand will win is when I flop quads. The fact they have no badbeat jackpot speaks volumes about this site.

by the way if you didnt call great fold cuz there is no way that queen didnt make fill someone up. Full tilt only puts cards there to destroy you.

Originally Posted by gn2056

by the way if you didnt call great fold cuz there is no way that queen didnt make fill someone up. Full tilt only puts cards there to destroy you.

Well I came thinking someone had posted back about my question and instead find this...... very informative. I think there is a bad beat section somewhere on here.

nutsinho Posted: Sat, 21 Mar 2009, 4:38am

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

well if he has a hand he is representing on the turn, we are beat, and if he was bluffing, then we arent beat. i cant imagine a fucking worse spot to lead the river. c/c or c/f depending on what you think he's capable of.

I agree with this. I feel like the only hand you're beating though is KdQd that semibluffed the turn, and it's questionable whether or not he's raising KdQd UTG. It's a tricky spot, but I'd probably c/c and go broke cause I'm bad.

We get value from AK if we bet, but villain might also have a boat or bluffing, that's pretty much the range I'm looking at here. Since AK is such a small part of the range - we cannot be betting here. This is a check calling spot.

I would need a read that he is bluffy/willing to bluff vs the line you've taken for me to do anything but c/f the river.

I don't understand something about our line: On the turn we think we have the best hand, then all of a sudden, a 2nd queen on the river makes AQ more likely?

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

I don't understand something about our line: On the turn we think we have the best hand, then all of a sudden, a 2nd queen on the river makes AQ more likely?

We have the best hand on the turn because we beat his range, QQ,AA,AQ,possible AK

on the river when the queen completes it kinda fucks it up for us when the part of his range that we beat now block us

lets remeber that 22 is sometimes in his range as well, and i seriously doubt AK is going to put more money in regardless of who bets it, not to mention the fact that he almost never plays AK that way.

Originally Posted by TwoSmeets

lets remeber that 22 is sometimes in his range as well, and i seriously doubt AK is going to put more money in regardless of who bets it, not to mention the fact that he almost never plays AK that way.

Yeah i forgot addin 22