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 Originally Posted by Rondavu
I don't know if I like it. You have to be right more than 50% of the time here.
I only think you have to be right 50% of the time you don't hit. 6 outs is not to be sneezed at when you could well be ahead already. I don't assume a big pair with a reraise -- maybe the guy really wanted it HU? That's a clue...
This kinda reminds me of gabe's thread contra raising with the kings "for information" when an A was onbaord. I think the difference is that in that hand there wasn't much possibility of getting behind if you weren't already. On this one there's quite a bit of shifting left for the ground to do.
Any card A-T ruins you here and I think you're done with the hand. A six is ideal, of course.
The value of raising is that you get the pot now if you're ahead, but also that opp's response is useful. A call means you are indeed ahead, but opp is wrong about the implied odds 'cause you're not putting more in if heshe pairs up.
A reraise/push obviously means you're overpaired -- I don't think he's pushing with the other two nines, but it's conceivable and that'd just be your bad luck i guess.
And the other advantage to the raise is that if you hit the pot has a good chance to get to $300+
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