OOP river bluff

I catch a bad case of the counterfeits on the river. I figure villain has a weak K/higher pair but my line has been strong enough that the right size bet stands a good chance of taking this. How much?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP2 ($94.80)
MP3 ($11.40)
CO ($98.91)
Button ($456.25)
Hero ($128.60)
BB ($84.25)
UTG ($65.87)
UTG+1 ($84.65)
UTG+2 ($94.50)
MP1 ($131.67)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, 8. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, 5 folds, CO calls $1, 1 fold, Hero (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($4) 8, 7, K (4 players)
Hero bets $3, BB calls $3, UTG folds, CO calls $3.

Turn: ($13) 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $8, BB calls $8, CO folds.

River: ($29) 2 (2 players)
Hero ???

this could easily be a busted flush/straight draw.

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

this could easily be a busted flush/straight draw.

yeah, could be, but I'm assuming it's not...

Originally Posted by Warpe

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

this could easily be a busted flush/straight draw.

yeah, could be, but I'm assuming it's not...

Why? Pushing people off top pair is usually not a good idea on blank river.

I don't give up $30 pots that easily.

Originally Posted by Warpe

I don't give up $30 pots that easily.

Just think of it from his position, what hands are you afraid of from someone who limped from the SB? A stronger king? K8 K7? This is an easy river call with a hand like KJ KQ unless you make an outrageus overbet of the pot, also such an overbet looks a lot like a like a busted draw(bluff or monster). This is a bad spot to bluff IMO.

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

Originally Posted by Warpe

I don't give up $30 pots that easily.

Just think of it from his position, what hands are you afraid of from someone who limped from the SB? A stronger king? K8 K7? This is an easy river call with a hand like KJ KQ unless you make an outrageus overbet of the pot, also such an overbet looks a lot like a like a busted draw(bluff or monster). This is a bad spot to bluff IMO.

If I check the river K wins. I don't think a river call is that easy here with TPGK. K8s/K7s are certainly hands to be afraid of, as is a set. I'm not thinking of a massive overbet here either...

Originally Posted by Warpe

If I check the river K wins. I don't think a river call is that easy here with TPGK. K8s/K7s are certainly hands to be afraid of, as is a set. I'm not thinking of a massive overbet here either...

I'm not going to argue this any further. You've got my opinion, make what you want of it.

I think a villain that's calling the turn with Kx is usually calling the river. A near pot-sized bet might give him pause, but why risk that in a wa/wb situation? I like c/c. You might pick up a bluff from a busted draw.

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

Originally Posted by Warpe

If I check the river K wins. I don't think a river call is that easy here with TPGK. K8s/K7s are certainly hands to be afraid of, as is a set. I'm not thinking of a massive overbet here either...

I'm not going to argue this any further. You've got my opinion, make what you want of it.

not trying to argue, just clarifying...that's why we post these, right?