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Overcard plus flush draw ($200NL)

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  1. #1

    Default Overcard plus flush draw ($200NL)

    My line with this type of draw has typically to get as much in as possible. I'm about 75% sure my ace is a live out. Do you play it the same? Is it best to play it this way? Would this be an example of "bet it the same way you would bet a set?"

    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

    MP3 ($78)
    Hero ($349.55)
    Button ($102.60)
    SB ($40)
    BB ($116.90)
    UTG ($447.20)
    UTG+1 ($170.75)
    MP1 ($191.75)
    MP2 ($156)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with A, J. UTG posts a blind of $2.
    3 folds, MP3 calls $2, Hero raises to $9, 1 fold, BB calls $8, 2 folds.

    Flop: ($22) Q, 8, 3 (3 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $20, BB raises to $40, Hero raises to $130, BB calls $67.90 (All-In).

    Turn: ($259.90) Q (3 players, 1 all-in)

    River: ($259.90) 7 (3 players, 1 all-in)

    Final Pot: $259.90
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  2. #2
    Medium stacks call more so it might be better to see if you hit and then bet it. Vs a tall stack with 2 overcards I like it this way. A medium stack with only 1 overcard and im not as sure. At worst its a small mistake though since you have so much equity Vs a Q.
    gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

    bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
  3. #3
    That's what I was suspecting...ran some numbers though:
    If my opponent folds 5% of the time, this is the best way to play it whether or not my ace is live. If my ace is live, then it's even more +EV.

    Call w/ ace live (fold missed turn) nets $5.5, assuming no implied odds.
    .25(82)+.75(-20)=5.5

    Shoving here nets $32.5, assuming no fold equity (around $40 with 5% folding).
    .45(82+67.9)-.55(87.90)=32.5

    Call w/ ace not live (fold missed turn) nets -$1.64, assuming no implied odds (with modest implied odds, it's probably break even).
    .18(82)+.82(-20)=-1.64

    Shove w/ ace not live nets -$4.67, assuming no fold equity (nets +$3.5ish if we grant 5% folding).
    35(82+67.9)-.60(87.9)+.05(82)=-4.67
    I run a training site...

    Check out strategy videos at GrinderSchool.com, from $10 / month.

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