Overpair vs an all-in, call or fold

Hold 'em or Fold 'em.

My friend asked me about this hand. I'm not going to give the results quite yet. Do you hold 'em or fold 'em?

FullTiltPoker Game #304765515: Table Camino Del Santo - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 15:02:47 ET - 2005/11/23
Seat 1: Telly_S ($24.35)
Seat 2: sir donkey ($24.70)
Seat 3: MYSTIC SKIVVIES ($30.55)
Seat 4: dacorupt1 ($33.50)
Seat 5: mpincus23 ($11.35)
Seat 6: merps ($18.65)
Seat 7: shawneyboy ($24.10)
Seat 8: jrbusbo ($17.35)
Seat 9: BioX ($15.35)
jrbusbo posts the small blind of $0.10
BioX posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to merps [Qh Qc]
Telly_S calls $0.25
sir donkey folds
MYSTIC SKIVVIES folds
dacorupt1 folds
mpincus23 folds
merps raises to $0.75
shawneyboy calls $0.75
jrbusbo calls $0.65
BioX folds
Telly_S calls $0.50
*** FLOP *** [5d Ts 6s]
jrbusbo bets $3.25
BioX is sitting out
BioX has returned
Telly_S folds
BioX is sitting out
BioX stands up
merps raises to $7
shawneyboy folds
jrbusbo raises to $16.60, and is all in.

Discuss.

Hold'em, I don't think a set or two pair leads that strong on the flop, especially knowing hero was the preflop aggressor.

I put villian on AT, KT, QT, JT....

Originally Posted by RubixNL

Hold'em, I don't think a set or two pair leads that strong on the flop, especially knowing hero was the preflop aggressor.

I put villian on AT, KT, QT, JT....

I think a set could lead out that strong KNOWING the hero was PF aggressor. He has established that he likes his hand...lets see how much.

Tough one. Calling is based on reads. Could this opp act this strong with AT? Does he have it in for us (meaning he might try and buy it)? Barring any specific reason to think he only has a split pair of tens, I fold.

Hold'em here as well.

Overpairs or sets normally don't push AI w/out 3 of the cards having same suit.

I try to call AI rather than bet them when I think I'm dominating a flop, not the other way around.

Call, I don't think it's a set. Pay off 2 pair.

I'd suggest to make your preflop raise 4-6BB, depending on the table.

Before I read the results I was with Erik. Preflop our Hero was the aggressor with a made hand, raising to something that only any PP or AK-AT I think would call. Villian preflop was all about limping and/or calling a bet. Wasn't willing to raise the pot himself, he needed a flop for a winning hand. For online, that makes me think PP of some sort rather than Ax. I think AK\AQ is raising the empty pot with the attempt at a possible blind steal.

When the flop comes all unders of what we put him on outside of the AT possibility, I think he is calling the $7 not pushing here. He has to have some sort of read on Hero, raising preflop, raising again on the flop now. He knows hero is balls deep in this hand and has a made hand that probably hasn't improved.

Another thing I look at is the stack of the player pushing. Is really willing to risk almost a full buyin on AT?

Anyways, I really didn't think I'd see someone pushing with AT.

Here are the results:

merps calls $9.60
jrbusbo shows [6c 6h]
merps shows [Qh Qc]
*** TURN *** [5d Ts 6s] [Kd]
*** RIVER *** [5d Ts 6s Kd] [5c]
jrbusbo shows a full house, Sixes full of Fives
merps shows two pair, Queens and Fives
jrbusbo wins the pot ($34.65) with a full house, Sixes full of Fives
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $36.45 | Rake $1.80
Board: [5d Ts 6s Kd 5c]
Seat 1: Telly_S folded on the Flop
Seat 2: sir donkey didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: MYSTIC SKIVVIES didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: dacorupt1 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: mpincus23 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: merps showed [Qh Qc] and lost with two pair, Queens and Fives
Seat 7: shawneyboy (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 8: jrbusbo (small blind) showed [6c 6h] and won ($34.65) with a full house, Sixes full of Fives
Seat 9: BioX (big blind) folded before the Flop

Originally Posted by dzl

Preflop our Hero was the aggressor with a made hand, raising to something that only any PP or AK-AT I think would call.

I think you've made some good points and the more HH I see posted, I don't thnk I've yet seen an all-in on the flop that was less than 2 pair. The only thing I disagree with is people at this level calling 3BB raises with only AT+ or a PP. I typically raise 4-6BB and I get plenty of shit calls, especially from the blinds.

I still think with only $9 more to call in a $25 pot you have to take that risk. Anyone disagree with that?

Originally Posted by RubixNL

Originally Posted by dzl

Preflop our Hero was the aggressor with a made hand, raising to something that only any PP or AK-AT I think would call.

I think you've made some good points and the more HH I see posted, I don't thnk I've yet seen an all-in on the flop that was less than 2 pair. The only thing I disagree with is people at this level calling 3BB raises with only AT+ or a PP. I typically raise 4-6BB and I get plenty of shit calls, especially from the blinds.

I still think with only $9 more to call in a $25 pot you have to take that risk. Anyone disagree with that?

I have a rule in ring that (outside of it its nothing for me to call and I have a made hand) that I will not call an all in with just TPTK or overpair with something less than 2pair. I will however push all in with TPTK or an overpair if I'm the aggressor.

As far as calling the $9 to see $25. 2.7:1 odds, I can fold that in ring any day of the week. For me Rubix, I play these tables 4way like most do on this site, I can wait for a better oppurtunity. Also, in ring I also look at what I'm calling here in comparison to my stack, and what I've committed. Came into this pot with $18, I've dedicated about 44% of my stack already to this QQ hand. These are not aces, I can't slow play them like aces, do I want to commit myself to this pot for 2.7:1 odds when I am semi confident I'm beat? Do I want essentially blow 1 buy in on a pair of Queens after the flop when my opponent is now the aggressor after I was the original aggressor?

Obviously neither of us are the hero here nor do we know what his read was or what was going on in his head when he made the call. This player could of been showing down piss poor pots all day. Situation probably could of been avoided though with what you originally stated, 4-6xBB. I agree with you there 100%. I can't make the call though, even for $9 to see $25. I want 4:1 odds here to call. Dreamland, I know. But I need outstanding odds to be calling an all in with an overpair after the flop when the preflop action is what it was.

My read of the player, sadly, was that he had me beat. The raise to $7 was a bit weaker than I'd usually reraise with an overpair as it was unusual for this player to bet into the aggressor. My read of him was tight/weak so pushing into me and then reraising allin was fairly obvious.

I should have let this one go imo, however an overpair on a board where a semibluff would make sense (7s8s, for example.) is something I'll generally play pretty strongly - however the fact that he bet out, and then re-reraised allin should have tipped me off.

This should have been folded for the additional 9.60