Overpair vs short(er) stack

Bad call?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP2 ($142.53)
MP3 ($77.50)
CO ($109.28)
Button ($96.50)
SB ($49)
BB ($29.60)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($27.70)
Hero ($159)
MP1 ($162.05)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with K, K. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 3 folds, CO calls $4, 2 folds, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($12.50) T, 6, 2 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8, CO folds, BB calls $25.60 (All-In), Hero calls $17.60.

Turn: ($63.70) 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($63.70) A (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $63.70

You're beat by 3 sets, and AA.

You beat JJ-QQ, AT/KT/QT/JT/T9 (The latter 5 hands are a little iffy)

You have to pay 17.60 into 46.1o.

I think this makes it a decent call.

i would stab you in the face if you folded here

Originally Posted by Strung

Bad call?

Easy call. Also remember that the odds he has a pp are lower than an unpaired hand. The chance that he has AT is only a little less than the chance that he actually has AA/TT/99. He could also have 22 to beat you, but you also beat QQ/JJ. So I'd give you somewhat over 50% to win this, and you only need to invest 28% for the call, so yeah.. gogo.

I need to work on my math when I'm making these decisions. I know it but I sometimes forget it specifically in these all-in calls. Just for the record he flipped over 2Hearts 6Hearts.

As a side note, I'm wondering how bad a call this was for him, not just considering that the hand is bad but from his implied odds. He's getting almost 3:1 to call but a what point is the hand just not worth it?

Well...there's now an obvious reason he's the shortstack. NH for him...good call by you.

Yeah not the best all-in by him, low double pair can be beaten too easily.

In this particular case, on the turn you have 2 outs to your set, 3 outs to an T (then you out-2-pair him). By the river you have an additional 3 outs to another 8. So I'd say since every card on the turn is going to be above his 2, that you have 7.5 outs to beat him over turn+river, or somewhat of a 36%. And he's in luck here with your overpair. If you had had a simple TP, like AT, then you have 3 additional outs on your A, or 10.5 outs which is 46%.

Originally Posted by Strung

As a side note, I'm wondering how bad a call this was for him, not just considering that the hand is bad but from his implied odds. He's getting almost 3:1 to call but a what point is the hand just not worth it?

He called $3 hoping to win about $40 if he hit. The chance of 62s outflopping KK is about 6% (this includes some combo-draws where 62s has a tiny edge on the flop), and even then his hand will only hold up about 4.5% of those 6%. So if we assume that:
*he manages to get you AI every time he outflops you
*you never give him odds to draw if he does not outflop you, and he doesn't make any bad flop calls (not even on a K66 flop)
*the CO never makes an even better hand
then BB will win $40 4.5% of the time and lose another $25 1.5% of the time, so on average he wins $1.40. The EV of his preflop call is therefore about -$1.60, even under these rather generous assumptions.

Originally Posted by jackvance

Yeah not the best all-in by him, low double pair can be beaten too easily.

With so little money left behind I'd certainly try to get it AI on the flop with two pair.

Originally Posted by jackvance

In this particular case, on the turn you have 2 outs to your set, 3 outs to an T (then you out-2-pair him). By the river you have an additional 3 outs to another 8. So I'd say since every card on the turn is going to be above his 2, that you have 7.5 outs to beat him over turn+river, or somewhat of a 36%. And he's in luck here with your overpair. If you had had a simple TP, like AT, then you have 3 additional outs on your A, or 10.5 outs which is 46%.

Your maths is completely off. Bottom two against TP/overpair is about 75% favourite (same for both).