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Playing flopped trips for value

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  1. #1

    Default Playing flopped trips for value

    Villain is an unknown. I put him on Kx/worse Q/flush or str8 draw. Do we make a big raise to charge flush draws and get value from worse Q's or call and get value from K's?

    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

    Button ($388)
    SB ($62)
    BB ($453.25)
    UTG ($191.60)
    Hero ($420.90)
    MP1 ($400) sitting out
    MP2 ($107.90)
    MP3 ($400)
    CO ($295.70)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q, J.
    1 fold, Hero raises to $14, 5 folds, BB calls $10.

    Flop: ($30) K, Q, Q (3 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $24, BB raises to $54, Hero...
  2. #2
    An Ace, Nine, or a diamond is going to either:
    Reduce your action against worse Q-x hands and probably shut down any actions against K-x hands.
    Improve your opponents hand

    4 Aces + 4 Nines + 11 Diamonds - 3 = 16 "Outs"
    (subtracting 3 outs due to the fact that a few are likely dead)

    Odds that one of the 16 cards will hit the turn: ~25%
    Odds that one of the 16 cards will hit the turn or river: ~50%
    Odds that one of the 16 cards will hit the turn and river: ~6%
    Odds that none of the 16 card will hit the turn or river: ~50%

    With those percentages in mind, i say...

    Call on the flop, shove the turn. You maximize value against K-x, who will probably put in another bet on the turn but might not on the river. You make it more likely that Q-x will play for stacks, since one of the scare cards will only hit ~33% of the time, and they will be quite invested in the pot after another big bet. Also, against draws you will probably get a smaller blocking bet out of them, and then you can push them out of the pot.

    If the scare card does hit on the turn, i would call a reasonable turn bet and fold to a bet on the river.
  3. #3
    When in doubt whether to be tricky or not with a good hand i tend to just go by my own rule: raise/bet. It's a really tricky situation but there are draws and outs for opp if he's losing so its better just to raise.
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  4. #4

    Default Re: Playing flopped trips for value

    Like 1/3 of the deck sucks for you. Plus those rare times its an 8 of spades and he has 88. Raise his ass, $200.
    Ship It

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