Protecting a set

***** Hand History for Game 3066412040 *****
$100 NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, November 20, 13:54:09 EDT 2005
Table Table 65809 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 3: whodare2lose ( $93.85 )
Seat 5: JoeDubcity ( $111.55 )
Seat 6: MR_FLOPEE ( $136.15 )
Seat 8: AsianBBWs ( $83.82 )
Seat 9: EJMCEO ( $76.35 )
Seat 10: sejje ( $98 )
Seat 1: SanRam123 ( $97.50 )
Seat 2: emannn2003 ( $112.55 )
Seat 4: rolexw ( $141.60 )
Seat 7: alonim55 ( $66.05 )
alonim55 posts small blind [$0.50].
>You have options at Table 65863 Table!.
AsianBBWs posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to sejje [ 4h 4s ]
EJMCEO folds.
sejje calls [$1].
SanRam123 folds.
emannn2003 folds.
whodare2lose folds.
rolexw calls [$1].
JoeDubcity raises [$4].
MR_FLOPEE folds.
alonim55 calls [$3.50].
AsianBBWs folds.
sejje calls [$3].
rolexw calls [$3].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2d, Kd, 4d ]
alonim55 checks.
sejje checks.
rolexw bets [$1].
rolexw: wear 1
JoeDubcity raises [$7].
whodare2lose: yeah,gr8
alonim55 calls [$7].
whodare2lose: lol
sejje is all-In [$94]
rolexw folds.
whodare2lose: nice name buddy
JoeDubcity folds.
rolexw: ty
alonim55 is all-In [$55.05]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jd ]
** Dealing River ** [ 8h ]
alonim55 shows [ Qd, Ad ] a flush, ace high.
sejje shows [ 4h, 4s ] three of a kind, fours.
sejje wins $31.95 from side pot #1 with three of a kind, fours.
alonim55 wins $146.10 from the main pot with a flush, ace high.

Obviously I'm scared of a made flush, but I'm not giving cheap cards to the Ad either. Overplayed? What's your line?

I do this all day in 25NL and I believe it's pretty profitable. Does the same apply here?

I'm trying to adjust my game for this level.

All in is a little excessive but not bad. It seems to me the guy who flopped the flush played the hand so passively on the flop that I'd be worried about a high flush. I'd have tried to play it passively as a flopped flush is extremely possible and attempt to give yourself odds on a boat.

You played this hand horribly, IMO. If you're trying to protect your set, why are you checking in the first place. Then when it was re-raised and CALLED what do you think they have? You've got to get the hell out of dodge.

I lead out for 3/4 the pot with your set to find out where you stand. Shoving in $94 is just throwing your money away. You're lucky it wasnt Joedubcity who had the flush or he takes the rest of your stack..

Really!!

You are giving AK and AA without Ad a great reason to fold, few will make the mistake of calling your push with those hands in this situation. You are getting called by AAd KK a made flush and maybe by AdK and 22.

This is how I would play it against tight predictable opponents.
I'd lead out the flop, if it gets raised just call. If a diamond falls on the turn just check and hope to get odds to see the river. On a non diamond turn lead out again, if it gets raised or pushed you are probably beat and should only call if the raise gives you odds to fill up. From his perspective, you limped and came to life on a 3 flush board on the flop and turn. This is very scary for AA AK non diamond. A tight predictable opponent will fold or only call you on that turn, few would dare to push.

I didn't expect a call from Joe, he's a multi-tag, unless he had AdAx or AdKx...the guy who called me I thought might have a made flush, but the lone Ad plays just the same and often calls me.

I check-raised to show strength and get folds, I guess, or hopefully a call from Ad.

And I've got a lot of outs if it's a made flush.

I'm not defending my play, though, just explaining it---I'm sure there's better options.

yeah i play a set in this flop the same way, AdKx will call you 99% of hte time, its just very unfortunate that he flopped the nuts, i think its a good play thou

Not with the re-reraise AND the call though. Maybe I'm passive but I'm getting the hell ouf of this hand with this many people splashing around on an all diamond flop.

I don’t like it. Before I commit all of my stack I am giving him more of a chance to declare his hand. I call the flop, and see what he does on the turn.

Originally Posted by EricE

Before I commit all of my stack I am giving him more of a chance to declare his hand.

Are you seriously considering a fold?

My thought process is pretty simple here. I have middle set, how do I get lots of money into the pot? Preferably all of it.

This hand is so much easier to play when you raise pre-flop...

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by EricE

Before I commit all of my stack I am giving him more of a chance to declare his hand.

Are you seriously considering a fold?

My thought process is pretty simple here. I have middle set, how do I get lots of money into the pot? Preferably all of it.

This hand is so much easier to play when you raise pre-flop...

This question is VERY relevant to me lately as the majority of the last 7-10 sets I have hit have been 3 or 4 to a flush on the board. Just bad luck I know but it makes me timid with sets.

Perhaps I need to revisit my odds to a boat in this situation. It’s like 35-40%? The odds of a 4th flush card hitting the turn or the river are also 35%.

If I make the boat it doesn’t matter if the 4th flush card hits but my flush is not going to be big enough to win if I miss my boat.
Man, I don’t know. There was a thread a long time ago that talked about this. I’ll try and dig it up.

as fnord was getting at (not to presume to know the mind of a master), i dont really believe in trying to protect sets. i want all the action i can get, the reason being that sets (unlike straights, which cant improve) will improve along with most draws.

and unlike a flush draw, sets actually gain outs on the turn, not to mention that the flush draw will have a couple tainted outs.

theres a difference between protecting a hand, and putting yourself in a sitataion where the only call you can get is from an already made hand.

I couldn't find the thread so I worked it out.
Chance for board to pair after the flop assuming you hold a set = 28%-36% depending on how many of your outs the opp holds. [28% assumes opp holds two of your outs for both the turn and the river.]

thinking out loud here...

So there is an equal chance of the board 4 flushing as it has to pair up. So if your opp holds a flush on the flop then you have ~30% chance to win.
If your opp holds two pair you are ahead but *could* lose to a 4 flushed board (35% chance of happening). On the other hand, he may not have the flush suit in which case you are ahead again. /boggle

If the board 4 flushes, and no boat hits.
...and we both hold flush suit then we can assume he wins (since my cards are likely low(PP), his high).
...and I hold flush suit and he doesn't then I win
...and he holds flush suit and I don't then he wins.
...and we both have no flush suit then I win
We can give those equal weighting so 2/4 chance he wins.
So if the board 4 flushes I win half the time which means the chance of me losing is half the chance of the board 4 flushing or 17.5%

Sometimes the board will pair AND 4 flush and those I win.


Summary:
Assuming I am ahead on the flop then I win likely 82% of the time (discounting his redraws)
Assuming I am behind (to the flush) on the flop then I have 30% chance to win.

Which still leaves me wanting to know if he holds the flush before I push. Maybe break up my stack such that I can put in 1/3 on each streat and fold to the four flush if it looks like I am beaten.

Originally Posted by siknd

as fnord was getting at (not to presume to know the mind of a master)

I'm not the best player on the board and a long way from being the most profitable. Heck, if we had a top 10 money winner list for posters with 100+ posts, I would be happy to make the list.

weak is strong? youre too modest.

dont worry, even if the fish know a shark, it wont save them. like moths to the flame.

I treat a set like TPTK. Eliminate draws, value bet everything, re-raise possible 2 pair... win at showdown.