I couldn't find the thread so I worked it out.
Chance for board to pair after the flop assuming you hold a set = 28%-36% depending on how many of your outs the opp holds. [28% assumes opp holds two of your outs for both the turn and the river.]

thinking out loud here...

So there is an equal chance of the board 4 flushing as it has to pair up. So if your opp holds a flush on the flop then you have ~30% chance to win.
If your opp holds two pair you are ahead but *could* lose to a 4 flushed board (35% chance of happening). On the other hand, he may not have the flush suit in which case you are ahead again. /boggle

If the board 4 flushes, and no boat hits.
...and we both hold flush suit then we can assume he wins (since my cards are likely low(PP), his high).
...and I hold flush suit and he doesn't then I win
...and he holds flush suit and I don't then he wins.
...and we both have no flush suit then I win
We can give those equal weighting so 2/4 chance he wins.
So if the board 4 flushes I win half the time which means the chance of me losing is half the chance of the board 4 flushing or 17.5%

Sometimes the board will pair AND 4 flush and those I win.


Summary:
Assuming I am ahead on the flop then I win likely 82% of the time (discounting his redraws)
Assuming I am behind (to the flush) on the flop then I have 30% chance to win.

Which still leaves me wanting to know if he holds the flush before I push. Maybe break up my stack such that I can put in 1/3 on each streat and fold to the four flush if it looks like I am beaten.