Is pushing here the wrong play?

PokerStars Game #1566452603: Hold'em No Limit ($2/$4) - 2005/04/22 - 16:18:00 (ET)
Table 'Normannia' Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Koira ($94 in chips)
Seat 2: Detroit Dick ($382 in chips)
Seat 3: augie98 ($251.90 in chips)
Seat 4: AvatarKava ($379.55 in chips)
Seat 5: TheSeraph ($782.30 in chips)
Seat 6: phatchic ($146 in chips)
Seat 7: tayhey ($100.50 in chips)
Seat 8: Phat_Cow ($112 in chips)
Phat_Cow: posts small blind $2
Koira: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to AvatarKava [Jd Jc]
Detroit Dick: raises $4 to $8
augie98: folds
AvatarKava: raises $8 to $16
TheSeraph: calls $16
phatchic: calls $16
tayhey: folds
Phat_Cow: folds
Koira: calls $12
Detroit Dick: calls $8
*** FLOP *** [Jh Tc 7d]
Koira: checks
Detroit Dick: checks
AvatarKava: checks
TheSeraph: bets $60
phatchic: folds
Koira: folds
Detroit Dick: folds
AvatarKava: calls $60
*** TURN *** [Jh Tc 7d] [Qd]
AvatarKava: checks
TheSeraph: bets $100
AvatarKava: raises $203.55 to $303.55 and is all-in
TheSeraph said, "no way"
TheSeraph said, "u went fishingw ith AK?????????"
TheSeraph said, "cant fold this...."
TheSeraph: calls $203.55
*** RIVER *** [Jh Tc 7d Qd] [5c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
AvatarKava: shows [Jd Jc] (three of a kind, Jacks)
TheSeraph: shows [Qs Qc] (three of a kind, Queens)
TheSeraph said, "oh"
TheSeraph collected $806.10 from pot
AvatarKava said, "omg"
TheSeraph said, "damn"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $809.10 | Rake $3
Board [Jh Tc 7d Qd 5c]
Seat 1: Koira (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 2: Detroit Dick folded on the Flop
Seat 3: augie98 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: AvatarKava showed [Jd Jc] and lost with three of a kind, Jacks
Seat 5: TheSeraph showed [Qs Qc] and won ($806.10) with three of a kind, Queens
Seat 6: phatchic folded on the Flop
Seat 7: tayhey (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Phat_Cow (small blind) folded before Flop

Looks right to me. My only fear would be that he actually held AK.

Guy took me for > 200BBs in 4 hands (KK vs. AA, this one, and my QQ vs. his JJ but his set held up).

Let the conspiracy theories begin...

Originally Posted by AvatarKava

Let the conspiracy theories begin...

RIGGED!

tough beats man. I'm sure your chips will find thier way home soon enough though.

{This post has been removed}

Interesting hand.

What range of hands do you put him on given the pre-flop action? Would he play AA/KK like this or play back at you pre-flop?

You're behind AK/QQ, but ahead of AQ/AA/KK/TT. Yet, those hands aren't liking this board.

This is a really weird situation where you're way ahead or way behind with a set and I almost think a call is in order. But it's hard to go too wrong getting in your money with a set.

With only $300 left in my stack I'm not sure if it makes sense to call here. If anything other than a K or A... maybe a 9 comes off (which would increase the number of plausible hands he could hold that beat me considerably), I can't see myself folding to what will amount to a bet of about half the size of the pot on the end.

Does a fold make sense here? It seems really weak to do so to a bet less than the size of the pot - as you stated, it's about 50/50 that I'm either way ahead or way behind.

Side question - do you think it changes the result of the hand if I raise on the flop?

Originally Posted by AvatarKava

With only $300 left in my stack I'm not sure if it makes sense to call here. If anything other than a K or A... maybe a 9 comes off (which would increase the number of plausible hands he could hold that beat me considerably), I can't see myself folding to what will amount to a bet of about half the size of the pot on the end.

I think a call is fine if it saves you any money when you're behind if he fails to put you for a decision for all your chips on the river. Given how tight this guy is, consider that he will often fold a worse hand to your re-raise and call with pretty much AK/KK/TT/77 maybe AA. However, if you're ahead he'll put in another bet on the river and if the board pairs you can put the rest in.

How much of a read did you have at the time? He looks really tight and hence is easy to put on a hand here. That Queen was the worst possible turn card for you vs a tight range.

1,628 games 0.005 secs 325,600 games/sec

Board: Jh Tc 7d Qd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 52.3956 % [ 00.52 00.00 ] { JdJc }
Hand 2: 47.6044 % [ 00.48 00.00 ] { AA-TT, 77, AKs, AKo }

If you can rule out AK given the flop bet...

924 games 0.005 secs 184,800 games/sec

Board: Jh Tc 7d Qd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 75.0000 % [ 00.75 00.00 ] { JdJc }
Hand 2: 25.0000 % [ 00.25 00.00 ] { AA-TT, 77 }

just out of interest, Fnord, where do u get these figures from? Is there a link?

I'm fairly certain he's using http://www.pokerstove.com/

I would consider check-raising on the flop to hedge against the possibility of getting outdraw by A-K.