QQ steal-call hits set vs good reg

ok, villain here is tulegit21 - he's a nitty 12-7 with 3% 3-bet that grows to 10% from the BB vs steals. He has 10k hands on me.

He is also one of the bigger winners at 100nl and 200nl on Full Tilt - good ol' PTR has him as 2.5ptBB/100 over 400k at 100nl and 1.3 over 600k at 200nl.
We have had some 3/4-bet wars in the past, he probably thinks my 4-bet range is fairly wide and similar to my calling range here (he's thinking pairs/AT-AK here a lot).

Is this as standard as i think it is? he has an ace most of the time here so i've got no fear of another heart hitting, unless it kills my action. I don't think he will be willing to stack off vs aggression if i jam the turn.
Thoughts?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($101)
SB ($181.10)
BB ($100)
UTG ($111.50)
MP1 ($73.65)
MP2 ($189.90)
Hero (CO) ($100)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q
3 folds, Hero bets $3.50, 2 folds, BB raises to $12, Hero calls $8.50

Flop: ($24.50) 9, Q, A (2 players)
BB bets $16, Hero calls $16

Turn: ($56.50) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $32, Hero calls $32

River: ($120.50) 6 (2 players)
BB bets $40 (All-In), Hero calls $40 (All-In)

Total pot: $200.50 | Rake: $3

lolwatisthepointinthisthread?

Sometime I raise turn, sometime I play same. OMG HE HAD AA, I SHOULD HAVE FOLDED THE SECOND NUTS COZ HE IS A BIG WINNER

Originally Posted by Muzzard

lolwatisthepointinthisthread?

Sometime I raise turn, sometime I play same. OMG HE HAD AA, I SHOULD HAVE FOLDED THE SECOND NUTS COZ HE IS A BIG WINNER

i know you're not stupid...

ok, his range on the river is AA/AQ/A9/99 - i don't understand your point one bit. Of course I'm never folding only 100bb deep, I was wondering if anyone had any other comments on the line taken.

Originally Posted by daven

Originally Posted by Muzzard

lolwatisthepointinthisthread?

Sometime I raise turn, sometime I play same. OMG HE HAD AA, I SHOULD HAVE FOLDED THE SECOND NUTS COZ HE IS A BIG WINNER

i know you're not stupid...

ok, his range on the river is AA/AQ/A9/99/ - i don't understand your point one bit. Of course I'm never folding only 100bb deep, I was wondering if anyone had any other comments on the line taken.

I don't understand the post though, what other lines can u take that will maximise your EV vs his range. Let him spew with whatever, he isn't going to have many draws here as I doubt he 3bets a hand like KTs/JTs/JKs out of the blind much.

His range on the turn is like AQ/A9s/AK/AA/99/A4s and ur crushing that range. I doubt he bet TT/JJ/KK on this turn, even if he did - if you raise he's folding.

For sure you can raise somewhere if you want, flop, turn or just flat. But I think we just get him to fold alot that we beat esp on flop.

IDK if ur bluff raising A high flop in 3b pots IP, or whether you have history or whatever. But ur probably vvv unlikely to be bluff raising the flop here and I doubt you call KTs/JTs hand pre and woudl raise draws here too in a 3b pot... or you call pre and float with alot of hands IP in 3b ppots IDK, correct me if I'm wrong? So our flop raising range is like QQ/AQ/99 maybe only? So u can rarely raise flop.

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($50.75)
UTG+1 ($72.65)
MP1 ($12.50)
MP2 ($10.00)
Hero (CO) ($54.00)
BTN ($50.00)
SB ($53.30)
BB ($52.75)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 8 players) Hero is CO
4 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, SB raises to $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($7.50, 2 players)
SB bets $6.50, Hero calls $6.50

Turn: ($20.50, 2 players)
SB bets $17, Hero calls $17

River: ($54.50, 2 players)
SB goes all-in $26.30, Hero calls $26.30

Final Pot: $107.10
Hero shows:
SB shows:

Hero wins $104.10 ( won +$50.80 )
SB lost -$53.30

This is why position rocks, you can play like this and if he tries to pot control any street you can deny him that chance.

turn call is so pointless, just jam

Originally Posted by mcatdog

turn call is so pointless, just jam

not necessarily, even if there is just $40 left

i think by the time he bets the turn hes not going away whatever you do. Calling is probably slightly better for the 0.000000000000000001% of the time he has nothing but its going in whatever by then.

Originally Posted by Deanglow

Originally Posted by mcatdog

turn call is so pointless, just jam

not necessarily, even if there is just $40 left

Explain? I think a real hand is not folding for $40 more but he may have a draw that will give up on the river if he misses, but of course call the shove on the turn. Calling just loses out on $40 the 70% of the time the draw misses. Not to mention, betting this amount with a draw on the turn, would be a good play by villain if he thinks hero is prone to nonsensical slowplays. The only way calling is better is if villain is bluffing with a hand that improves on the river, which isn't too likely on this board.

He's never folding a draw to a turn shove because he has pot odds to call
but he's never bluffing $40 on the river
therefore you should always shove the turn, because he can fold river if he misses his draw

I've seen tightbad regulars bet/fold the turn with AK and its plausible that you'd call turn and fold river on this board

What do you guys think about raising the flop?

Originally Posted by Parasurama

What do you guys think about raising the flop?

it sucks