QQ Vs probable LAG. Suspicious turn + river

Dont have many hands on villain but so far hes 30/23/5 after 40 odd hands.

I planned to catch his float with a checkraise allin on the turn. His turn check behind made me suspicious. His river bet made me even more suspicious. Did he catch something this time?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($60.75)
Hero ($115.25)
BB ($94.90)
UTG ($111.25)
MP ($100.75)
CO ($153.60)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q.
UTG raises to $4, MP calls $4, 2 folds, Hero raises to $12, 1 fold, UTG folds, MP calls $8.

Flop: ($29) 2, 5, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $18, MP calls $18.

Turn: ($65) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks.

River: ($65) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $40, Hero ????

A 4 Maybe?

KK? Depends on previous hands I've seen this guy play to me...if I've seen him turn over a losing K5o I'll probably call this...you've got a lot invested in this pot already...shame to lay it down.

Most would probably disagree w/me here

omg i hate this hand so much!!! i'm really torn between a crying call and a fold. i'm sorry i'm not much help in this hand cuz it's just a really sucky spot.

I think you're good here more often than not. You haven't shown any strength after your c-bet, so he could easily put you on missed overs. He could have a four but also could have a mid PP. In general, c/c is a good river line with a hand like this against a lagg.

Your hand is underrepresented after the flop, so the river is an easy call, imo.

call. This could be a bluff or a lower overpair so easy.

I like how villian totally misses out on stacking you by not betting the turn (asssuming he has a set or something). Also, PFR is "only" 23%, so if he has anything he has a pair. Maybe TT/JJ? 44 is the only other hand that makes sense.

It's likely a bluff.

It's a cry call.

LOL. This isn't a decision at all. Villains aggressive tendancies + your under representation opens up a very wide range of hands you're ahead of making this bet on this board.

All you should care about in any given hand against a villain, is how does villains likely range mold my decision, and what factors contribute to that likely range.

It looks to me like you're not aware of all the factors affecting a range. Sometimes considered factors are not actual factors at all, but that's poker. You do your best to consider. Explore this element some more.

Originally Posted by Pelion

I planned to catch his float with a checkraise allin on the turn.

Terrible spot to do this. Ax is going to peel on you a lot and your pre-flop action establishes a very strong range.

Originally Posted by Rondavu

It looks to me like you're not aware of all the factors affecting a range.

Quite possibly not. In this hand Im aware that I massivly underrepped my hand so I decided it was quite possible he had a lower overpair or maybe even Ax as well as the hands that beat me.

I called he flipped 44.

@Fnord: What would be a better spot? Would you do this here with KK? AA? Would you rather do it with a high card on board?

Originally Posted by Pelion

@Fnord: What would be a better spot? Would you do this here with KK? AA? Would you rather do it with a high card on board?

I think that move is better reserved for pots that aren't re-raised like this one. He expects you to have a big hand. The c/bomb line works better against aggros when you just raise PF (not re-raise).