Queens full against what really looks like quads

Villain is ArmyRock, and from the hands I've seen a huge huge calling station and just all around fish. Should I be 3-betting this river AI? He plays this hand exactly, apart from the turn check, the way I'd expect a donkey to play AA.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($20)
MP2 ($113.70)
CO ($66.05)
Button ($9)
Hero (SB) ($54.10)
BB ($13.30)
UTG ($59.05)
UTG+1 ($67.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
1 fold, UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 raises to $1, 4 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $7, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($14.50) 8, 2, A (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

Turn: ($15.50) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

River: ($15.50) A (2 players)
Hero bets $15, UTG+1 raises to $30, Hero calls $15

Total pot: $75.50 | Rake: $3

if he had aaa why would he check the turn? ezzzz river shove

KK would play the same way. As would AK.

Pre-Flop
Even though that 4Bet is small, if he is as passive as you say, I'd probably put him on QQ+ and maybe AK. However, I'm moving more towards KK+ because he definitely wants action from you.

Flop
To me, this seems like a guy who is trying too hard to act weak. It's kind of obvious because I mean c'mon, min-betting in position in a 4Bet pot? I believe he got that set of Aces and he wants you to act on his weak play. I think you're way behind here but I'd call this weak bet. It's 30:1, so you may get lucky and hit runner-runner.

Turn
His check here is weird, but I'm inclined to think it's still just his lame attempt to look very weak to induce you to bet, even if he's giving a FD a free river. I would guess he's not putting you on FD because what kind of hand wold you 3Bet/Call with? AKs? Yea, that's a possibility, but it's slim because there is only 1 AKs out there since he has 3 Aces. So he's continuing to act weak to induce whatever he can out of you

River
Looks like it work as he got a pot-sized lead out of you. He knows he has the nuts so the min-raising makes sense because he wants to get as much as he can out of you. To me, the way the hand was played, he's only going to min-raise the river with AA, AK or QQ. I dunno, would he 4Bet with AK or QQ?

If you think he's showing up with a range of AA, AK, and QQ, then shove. If you think what I said above about him showing up more with AA applies more to this player, Bet/Call.

I think you cost yourself a lot of money by trying to avoid being stacked by quads here, especially since you think very little of opp. If he is as bad as you say, then he will gladly put the rest in with a single A, plus maybe some other random dumb hands.

There are exactly 3 hands that beat you here, the 1 AA, and the two combos of AQ. There are many more hands that pay you off that would play the same way.

A quick note to Dueces88, when making ranges make sure you take into account all of the known cards. There is only 1 Q left in the deck once the turn hits, so QQ is no longer in opps range.

Originally Posted by pgil

I think you cost yourself a lot of money by trying to avoid being stacked by quads here, especially since you think very little of opp. If he is as bad as you say, then he will gladly put the rest in with a single A, plus maybe some other random dumb hands.

There are exactly 3 hands that beat you here, the 1 AA, and the two combos of AQ. There are many more hands that pay you off that would play the same way.

A quick note to Dueces88, when making ranges make sure you take into account all of the known cards. There is only 1 Q left in the deck once the turn hits, so QQ is no longer in opps range.

Yea it's a minor mistake I made when I got carried away with the analysis. I highly doubt I wouldn't catch that if I were putting more focus on the hand.

But I would like to note that if this guy is as huge of a calling station as you say, do you think he'd 4Bet with AQ? He'd 4Bet with AK, QQ+ pre-flop but he'd probably raise more if it were AK or QQ, unless he's just retarded (which may actually be the case )

id shove, might be a lil thin but definitely have to stick it in

Thanks for the responses guys, especially deuces88 with his detailed analysis. The turn check was really the most important part of the hand for me, and you're right atothec101 it should have ruled out AA.

My reasons for not 3-betting river:
1. I didn't want him to hit and run. A lot of these players that are used to losing will leave right after or soon after they hit the good side of a cooler for a big pot. Also, if I happened to be good and stacked him, he would probably leave, and I felt I had a better than average chance of getting the rest of it anyway, since the rest of the table was playing tight and I was planning on targeting him.

2. I was 16-tabling and couldn't think long enough about what he could have other than AA. When people min 3b/4b me, unless I've seen differently, I assume they have huge hands, and him following up with the min c-bet in position on the A high flop locked me in to believing he had AA. I've been seeing the min 3b/4b a lot more often recently with weaker hands. I think microstakes donks have learned that it scares regs and have started to do it with a wide range. Now that I think about it, KK, AK, and spade connectors can definitely play this way, although it would take a lot of courage to raise that river.

nutsinho, what do you think of my river lead? Is that why I have to stick it in, because I might as well have c/c if I really believed he had me beat?

you really just need to bet turn and shove river

theres no need to go for a check raise on the turn, the board is pretty dry and the stack sizes don't warrant it at all

I'd like to know if we should ever really try to be this specific on our reads. I would think when we run into this bad a cooler we just happily pay it off, because we're good here wayyyyy more often and he calls with worse so often.

Originally Posted by baudib

I'd like to know if we should ever really try to be this specific on our reads. I would think when we run into this bad a cooler we just happily pay it off, because we're good here wayyyyy more often and he calls with worse so often.

Yeah I've been thinking about this too. I think against certain (bad) villains you can be this specific with your reads, because they're only going to be playing one hand a certain way. In this situation villain had 7s9s so maybe not lol.

I would try to get my money in on the Turn.