Question about a fold

*********** # 4 **************
PokerStars Game #2627328486: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) -
2005/09/21 - 13:15:56 (ET)
Table 'Charybdis' Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Iwind ($31.20 in chips)
Seat 2: Stootz02 ($29.10 in chips)
Seat 3: Lesanepc ($20 in chips)
Seat 4: ton-in-exile ($56.50 in chips)
Seat 5: inecita2004 ($29.70 in chips)
Seat 6: Jaguar ($43.60 in chips)
Seat 7: franic_vii ($21.50 in chips)
Seat 9: splifman ($20.10 in chips)
Jaguar: posts small blind $0.10
franic_vii: posts big blind $0.25
Lesanepc: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Iwind [Ah Kc]
panchelio has returned
splifman: folds
Iwind: raises $0.50 to $0.75
Stootz02: raises $1.25 to $2
panchelio said, "pretty drappy river"
Lesanepc: calls $1.75
panchelio said, "*crappy"
ton-in-exile: folds
inecita2004: folds
Jaguar: folds
franic_vii: folds
Iwind: calls $1.25
*** FLOP *** [Js 8s As]
Iwind: checks
Stootz02: bets $2.25
Lesanepc: calls $2.25
Iwind: folds
*** TURN *** [Js 8s As] [4h]
Stootz02: bets $4
Lesanepc: calls $4
*** RIVER *** [Js 8s As 4h] [5d]
Stootz02: bets $12
Lesanepc: folds
Stootz02 collected $17.95 from pot
Stootz02: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***


I checked at the flop and then folded even when I had the top pair. I was worried about one of them having either a set of J, maybe A, maybe AJ or maybe KQ being in a flush. They could also have had an flush draw. I saw my chances of winning pretty small, less than 1/6 wich would be the part of pot. Do you agree with my decision to first check and then fold like this?

Leading out the flop here will tell you everything you need to know about this hand. If TPTK isn't the best hand here, you will find out quickly after you bet because you will get raised hard by someone with a better hand who is protecting against the flush draw, and you can let TPTK go. Possible holdings for callers include any big spade. Possible holdings for raisers = AJ, AA, JJ, small flushes(less likely given preflop action).

You will rarely get called by someone slowplaying here unless they flopped the nuts, so you should be able to get away from the hand easily if TPTK is no good. I think i bet about 4$ here to see where i'm at and then play accordingly.

Folding is definitely not a bad play here against two opps either, but its too tighty for me.

I actually thought about doing this, making a small raise, I knew it had to be either that. Good point that a raise like this would most likely tell me all I need to know, it is a bit expensive though, considering the odds. There are two people, they both have to have high cards looking at pre-flop. Stootz02 has to have something to do the raise, and Lesanepc too to make the call, but probably nothing great since he didn't raise. What could they have that I would beat, that would make them act like this? A flush draw, maybe both flush and straight draw? And just the flush draw alone gives me 35% chance to loose, a flush draw would have great odds for calling my 4 raise, and if I raise more than 4 it gets too expensive. Other options are QJ, KK, QQ and stuff like that, but I would not have raised with that had I been them, seeing the 3 suited cards laying there and one of them being ace. Maybe I'm tight though, I dunno

I actually thought about doing this, making a small raise, I knew it had to be either that. Good point that a raise like this would most likely tell me all I need to know, it is a bit expensive though, considering the odds

What are the odds you actually catch top pair on the flop? What are the odds your opponnent even caught anything on the flop? The expensive comment scares me a bit....when you think in those terms you can't expect to be a winning poker player.

Originally Posted by Iwind

I actually thought about doing this, making a small raise, I knew it had to be either that. Good point that a raise like this would most likely tell me all I need to know, it is a bit expensive though, considering the odds. There are two people, they both have to have high cards looking at pre-flop. Stootz02 has to have something to do the raise, and Lesanepc too to make the call, but probably nothing great since he didn't raise. What could they have that I would beat, that would make them act like this? A flush draw, maybe both flush and straight draw? And just the flush draw alone gives me 35% chance to loose, a flush draw would have great odds for calling my 4 raise, and if I raise more than 4 it gets too expensive. Other options are QJ, KK, QQ and stuff like that, but I would not have raised with that had I been them, seeing the 3 suited cards laying there and one of them being ace. Maybe I'm tight though, I dunno

Well first thing is you cant say "What could they have that would make them act like this?" Because you acted before them, you don't know how they are going to act.

If you are the bettor, then they are the ones saying "Hmm what does this guy have to be betting on this 3 suited flop? Should i draw to my flush? Is my hand good here?" Betting 2/3rds of the pot is pretty safe i am almost sure it's +EV with TPTK in early position on a 3 suited board. Anyone with the draw is getting bad odds to call, anyone with a better hand is going to raise you to protect against the draw so you'll know if you're beat. You probably have the best hand here more than 1/3rd of the time, so risking 2/3rds of the pot is a good price for you to just take it down with your fold equity. Plus if you just get called you know how to play the hand out from then on.

What are the odds you actually catch top pair on the flop? What are the odds your opponnent even caught anything on the flop? The expensive comment scares me a bit....when you think in those terms you can't expect to be a winning poker player.

What? You don't think in terms of how much it's going to cost you to show down a hand or how much you're willing to bet for information and still be prepared to let a hand go? I think these are the kinds of things that only winning players think about, and losing players just say F it and play like dumbies.

I understand your point...but when you're thinking "it's too expensive" to raise with what quite possibly is the best hand...when will you ever raise? When you start thinking of your chips as cash you're in trouble (imo).

So what I should probably have done here then, was to bet 1/3 of pot in the first place, and not check like I did. I agree checking was not such a good idea, but when I think there is like 2/3 chance I'm beat I tend to check instead of raising, hoping to get a cheap turn, even though raising 1/3 of pot would give me good odds.

So if I raised by 3 then, it is like 1/3 pot after my raise, and they reraised a lot I'd fold. If they fold it's great, but what about if they call it? And on turn it is say some low card noone most likely can use. Do I keep betting, and if so, how much?

And if it's a spade on the turn, my 1/3 raise on flop would give them more than enough odds for going for the draw. Do I keep betting, or check?

And all I mean with calling/raising being expensive is that I don't think it gives me +EV to do it, but that's probably wrong, doesn't mean I'm worried about losing more chips.