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question about river bet sizing

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  1. #1
    Shotglass's Avatar
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    Default question about river bet sizing

    Villain is a passive 17/15 1.4 agg 100% cbet (10 times) - over a couple hundred hands. The first or 2nd hand I saw him play he c/r'd the river with the nuts, but that's the only check raise he's done.

    He'd see me as 21/15 4.0 agg; got popped set over set about 15 hands ago, so he might have noticed that I set mine. played 3 of the last 5 hands.

    I've got him on a pretty wide range PF, and flop, but when he c/c the turn I'm thinking AJ+ and broadways.

    When the board pairs the river, his possible 2pr just turned into the nuts with 6 combos that beat me. I'm wondering what the best bet size would be to get value from trips but not value town myself against his nut holdings. In a situation like this I normally default to about 1/2 pot, but I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts.

    No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    saw flop | saw showdown

    MP2 ($35.96)
    CO ($54.50)
    Hero (Button) ($53.09)
    SB ($28.47)
    BB ($80.91)
    UTG ($77.26)
    UTG+1 ($51.82)
    MP1 ($54.77)

    Preflop: Hero is Button with 7, 7
    3 folds, MP2 bets $1.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.75, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

    Flop: ($5.75) 7, A, J (3 players)
    SB checks, MP2 bets $3.83, Hero calls $3.83, 1 fold

    Turn: ($13.41) 6 (2 players)
    MP2 checks, Hero bets $10.05, MP2 calls $10.05

    River: ($33.51) A (2 players)
    MP2 checks, Hero ????

    Quote Originally Posted by givememyleg View Post
    i'll never understand how anyone can go through life being sober.
  2. #2
    He is a fish and is probably not folding a jack so go allin. He has about half the pot left?
  3. #3
    bikes's Avatar
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    this has to be a level right? hes never folding an A probably not a J and if he had you beat he most certainly would have shipped himself

    ?wut
  4. #4
    rpm's Avatar
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    if you didn't jam that river card, move down in stakes and refine your value-betting skills.
  5. #5
    Shotglass's Avatar
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    ^^Ouch, yeah...I put him AI. He called with AQo.

    @ bikes: no, not a level...I posted it while I was playing. A few hours later I thought something similar to what you wrote and felt like an idiot. I think I was second guessing myself because it was my first run at 50NL.

    Quote Originally Posted by givememyleg View Post
    i'll never understand how anyone can go through life being sober.

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