Raise AI against donkbet with KK on A high flop

Just made a big withdrawal and had a downswing subsequently so I had to move down to 50 NL.

My hand migrated towards the fold button automatically when I saw this bet, but then I thought for a second and this is what I did:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($24.50)
UTG+1 ($60.10)
MP1 ($110.35)
MP2 ($75.50)
MP3 ($66)
Hero (CO) ($48.35)
Button ($42.55)
SB ($33.10)
BB ($20.10)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, K
UTG raises to $1.50, 4 folds, Hero raises to $4.50, 3 folds, UTG calls $3

Flop: ($9.75) 4, 6, A (2 players)
UTG bets $5, Hero raises to $20

Here's my reasoning: If villain had an A that could stand this raise, why would he lead? He should be expecting me to c-bet this flop close to 100%. Since the pot was ~$10 and his stack was $20 after preflop action, he would be looking to check-raise AI with a strong ace. So, I raised to represent AK. Does anyone have experience with people bluff-leading into A high flops in 3-bet pots with the intention of forcing KK,QQ to fold?

I really hate this. The only read given is that villian has a half stack, which means I don't give him credit for thinking much at all.

He's getting 2:1, so he needs 33% equity to break even. Flush draws have an easy call. Sets call. 35 and 57 call. AK calls. AQ probably calls. AJ could be a fold, but again, half stack, so I say he's maybe 50/50 calling/folding here.

I think the most likely hands for him to donk into you are flush draws, Ax, and maybe like 99+, planning to bet/fold. So how often does he have 99+ or a foldable Ax?

Actually...After working all that out, I really like this. You have great equity against flush draws, which I think make up a fair part of his range. He'll fold other pairs. And he will likely fold Ax enough to make this probably profitable. It also helps your image when you get called. Nice hand.

Whatever Ax hand he has he's not folding it

uhhhh this is kinda retarded the only way this could be good is if he is bluff leading a ton and never has Ax here in which case call is obv good. If he sometimes has Ax he will likely nt fold and you will have to follow through in the turn without knowing an accuraet range so you can potentially be making a big mistake. Just call with showdown value,.....

I think he is folding Ax here though, when I 3-bet him pre and raise him all-in on the flop my range is crushing Ax. I'm not even giving him credit for thinking that deeply. I think this is a spot where I'm bluffing and it's totally unexpected that I would ever be bluffing.

Originally Posted by Parasurama

I think he is folding Ax here though, when I 3-bet him pre and raise him all-in on the flop my range is crushing Ax. I'm not even giving him credit for thinking that deeply. I think this is a spot where I'm bluffing and it's totally unexpected that I would ever be bluffing.

no, he never folds an ace

Let him bluff

not fold

i've seen flop bet-fold a lot from bet-callers oop. But, here i don't like your line at all.

turning KK into a bluff is cool, I wouldn't do it though

haha rilla your posts are so enigmatic

Wouldn't this be a better line to take if villain were shortstacked and you have TT/JJ?

Originally Posted by baudib

Wouldn't this be a better line to take if villain were shortstacked and you have TT/JJ?

why?

Just thinking that, shortstacked, he's not likely to fold Ax here. With TT/JJ there are a couple of hands he's behind (QQ, KK) that he might bluff out. With KK there are almost no better hands that you can cause to fold out.

Just call and probably don't fold regardless. There's no point 'protecting' your hand because he's not folding flush draws anyway and either you're beat (he's not folding any ace here ever in a million years because ppl don't fold top pair in reraised pots at nl 50 or nl 1 gillion) or you're good and you want to maximize the maniez you're getting from the pure air he's donking with.

I guess if you want you could fold to a turn shove but fk it.