Raise Flop, Push turn

Playin NL25.. i'm in middle/late P. 77
I limp/call a raise of $2.. 3 see the flop

Flop is 389 rainbow.. pot is $6.55
raiser bets $2.50
folds back to me.

read: Big preflop raise of 8BB and a weak flop bet says AK to me on that board.

i raise to $8.
he thinks for a long while before calling.

turn is 4

he checks pot is around $22

read: delayed call/check turn says draw or monster. On that board i'm not putting him on a monster, a set maybe.. but a draw is seeming more likely to me.
77 is beating any draw. I decide if he's slowplaying something then so be it.
I push AI for $15

I will post the result of the hand after a few responses. How was the play you think? probably one of those one thats hard to say but any opinion is valued.. mostly questioning whether you think it was worth it or i should've waited for something better.. and does the flop raise commit me to the hand if he only calls??... obviously if he'd re-raised the flop i'd be out of there pretty fast.

I'm not sure about the push here. His continuation bet and call on the flop may mean that he is drawing, but what about the big PFR? How many limpers where with you before the PFR?

The problem with the push is that he may call with TT or JJ here even though you represented a monster hand. The pot sits at 22+15=37 and its 15 to showdown. The pot will give him better than 4:1 to call, and your 7s are not a strong hand here. He's obviously not bluffing because he called your flop bet, so your only chance to win here is for you to push him off the hand or to hope that he's a weak/passive plr who called a pot sized bet on a draw.

yeh the difficulty was, with the $22 pot.. $15 wasnt really that much.. and if it was to be less i feel he could ride straight over the top over me.. I really wouldve liked a much larger stack.

I think you have him beat, i think your read is correct that he has AK and doesn't want to let go.

i dont like that he thought for a while and then called, could be slowrolling a monster, i dont see why AK would call that raise period

Originally Posted by bair

i dont like that he thought for a while and then called, could be slowrolling a monster, i dont see why AK would call that raise period

yeh this was my thoughts.. but i decided draw more likely at $25 NL.. fishful place. perhaps 10J, but that doesnt really fit for the preflop raise.

come on guys.. more opinions.. i'll post the result after 2 more replys

I hate trying to figure these 25Nl guys out, anyway my couple of cents. I'm putting my money on a higher PP. QQ or possibly overvaluing 10-10 or JJ? Anyway, I think you made him unsure of his hand and he's not drawing or playing a monster. He's just scared he's up against a better hand but is having trouble letting this one go. Anyway, prove us all wrong lets see what he's got!

BTW I realize his post flop bet was weak and a high PP would bet harder but I'm trying to keep in mind a lot of fish here obviously don't play pot odds. And I'm getting the impression from your post he's kinda fishy...

His hesitant call says to me that he has QQ or JJ, and is unsure of his overpair...but the fact that he called your raise is indicative that he is NOT letting this hand go.

Pushing all in would not be recommended here. Check, and if he's on a draw, you can try taking it from him on the river.

But he's calling that all-in.

Galapogos ... why is the preflop raise weak? Isn't PP 25NL .1/.25 blinds? That would mean the PFR was 9X the BB, no?

Originally Posted by naturaltan

Galapogos ... why is the preflop raise weak? Isn't PP 25NL .1/.25 blinds? That would mean the PFR was 9X the BB, no?

Pre-flop was huge, post-flop was weak.

This is completely dependent on the player. Any reads?

If he is a strong player:

He would have bet the low flop strongly (not weakly) with AK. For him to bet weak here, he has to have a big hand - I think AA, KK, and 99 are most likely, but any overpair could act the same.

You didn't give the positions. If he was a strong player, he could also have been on a late position steal with J-10 and gotten called. Then called a flop raise with his OESD.

If he is a weak player:

He could have AK or any overcards like you suggest ... or maybe a lower pocket pair. If he had A9, I think he would have bet stronger. I would have a tough time putting the weak player on a hand here ... but I would expect his hand is actually weak.

ok thanks for all the advice guys.. heres the result.. wich i was utterly amazed at, he was a complete fish,

so i pushed AI for $15
he though for his whole time.. and then called.. at which point i thought ok that was a pretty big call, i'm probably beat
River was a second 8, making the board 38948

He turns over A2

now explain the reasoning for his play for me and i'll eat a fridge

in reference to some of the questions put up, i didnt have a strong player read as i'd only been in at the table for a few hands.. probably a bad time to make a move just based on the reason.. and i had position on him.