A really bad call...

I made a really bad call here I think. My reason for calling was that I didn't think he would stay in with KJ after the rainbow flop- and based on my read I put him on a bluff or slowplayng a flopped straight. Read on MP3: Playing few hands - but also playing suited hands. Any analysis of me and the other players play here would be welcome. And for the record, I played a tight game (20% flop) and would often have folded this hand preflop from MP, but I like to put some variation in my game.



0.25/0.5$ NL 10 player

Dealt to Borax in MP1

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OpeningBetRound
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SB : Posts small blind 0.25
BB : Posts big blind 0.50
CO : Posts 0.50
UTG : Folds
UTG+1 : Folds
UTG+2 : Folds
Borax : Calls for 0.50
MP2 : Folds
MP3 : Calls for 0.50
CO : Checks
Button : Calls for 0.50
SB : Calls for 0.25
BB : Checks
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Flop

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SB : Checks
BB : Checks
Borax : Checks
MP3 : Checks
CO : Bets 2.00
Button : Calls for 2.00
SB : Folds
BB : Folds
Borax : Calls for 2.00
MP3 : Calls for 2.00
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Turn

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Borax : Checks
MP3 : Checks
CO : Checks
Button : Bets 2.00
Borax : Raises for 5.00
MP3 : Calls for 5.00
CO : Folds
Button : Calls for 3.00
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River

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Borax : Bets 10.00
MP3 : Raises for 40.00
Button : Folds
Borax : Calls for 30.00
MP3 : Shows cards
Borax : Mucks cards
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Showdown
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Borax
- Straight - Q high
MP3
- Straight - K high
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Result
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Borax Mucked Cards
MP3 Showed Cards (Winning) 103.00
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Pretty rough. That's going to be hard not to call because it seems so much more likely that he just has a jack, not KJ. I don't think it's a terrible call. I can see though why he called the flop bet - with three callers ahead of him he's getting very good pot odds on his overcards. And if he gets a 9 or a Q on the turn, he's picked up a good draw - so it's like 8 outs to make a good 8 out draw, and 6 outs to make top pair decent kicker. He can't absolutely know where he stands in the hand, but with pot odds that good, why let it go?

Should I have raised more when I got my queen top pair on the turn?
I think my call is bad, because with a Jx I would call for 30$ just to split and the KJ was more possible than I wanted to think, as you explained.

Actually my first thought was to fold to KJ, but then I changed my mind...first feeling is often correct. I had also done very well that evening and was up by 120$ before this hand. I tend to take more chances when I know I'm ahead anyway.

Originally Posted by Borax

Should I have raised more when I got my queen top pair on the turn?

You could argue for a stronger raise of $4 or $5, but I doubt he's folding that draw anyway. It's not a terrible raise.

I think my call is bad, because with a Jx I would call for 30$ just to split and the KJ was more possible than I wanted to think, as you explained.

Look at it from a pot odds standpoint though: you've got second nuts. Pot is $26 going to the river; you bet $10, he raises $40. Essentially your call is $30 on a $76 pot. You know he at least has the jack, the only question is if he has the king. To make this break even or better - you will take away $53 if the pot is split (including half of your $30 call); you will lose that $30 if he has KJ. If he has KJ even half the time, you're coming out ahead by calling here. Even if you make it 3 out of 5 times, you'll take away $53 twice and lose $30 three times; that's a net gain of $16.

I don't think it's a terrible call. If you have a solid read on him for KJ you probably want to fold, but if you're not certain there's a solid argument for calling here and hoping he just has the jack. Only KJ beats you here, so it's not like you can put him on a wide range of hands that will cost you this pot. Basically he's got you in a really bad position, and made a raise that is tough for you not to call; good play by him. If he'd only raised $20 instead of $30, that's an automatic call by you - and he wins every single time, of course.

Thanks for interesting analysis dalecooper
I am not so good with difficult pot calculations and in this hand it was like I couldn't aggree with myself on folding or calling. Like you say I would call a smaller raise without much hesitation.

I have a better read and a note on this player now, telling me to be careful. He dosen't play too many hands and plays position well. I noticed that he is good at picking the right time to raise high and take som very nice pots. He likes to chase straights though and sometimes clearly bluffed at the river with no hit...hard player to beat.