River value deepstacked--$100NL

Villain is 44/7/1.8 (although more like 32/5 at the time), doesn't 3bet preflop and doesn't 3bet postflop. Goes to SD 32% of the time. We've tangled a couple of times but not gone to SD yet.

Comments on turn welcome too, but my main question is river bet sizing as I think this is a weakness of mine. I don't think he calls a river overshove, and obv on turn I didn't want the pot going out of control, so I can't get to a point where we can shove the river.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($104.80)
UTG+1 ($99)
MP1 ($249.40)
MP2 ($142.50)
MP3 ($180.60)
CO ($98)
Hero (Button) ($230.85)
SB ($97.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, 8
1 fold, MP1 raises to $3, 2 folds, CO calls $3, Hero calls $3, SB calls $2.50, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($15) 10, 8, Q (5 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP1 bets $10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $35, 2 folds, MP1 calls $25

Turn: ($85) 9 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($85) 8 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $60......,

shove river and watch him call JK

id bet the turn, plenty of value vs the donk

river value is a guess, i usually bet on the smaller side. here he's not callling any missed draws either way, so what's he goin to call a pair of Q/T usually, your bet seems good, maybe a bit smaller

checking the turn is fine/good, your river bet size is fine, against a bad player like this a larger bet is generally better.

Originally Posted by wakeup

id bet the turn, plenty of value vs the donk

river value is a guess, i usually bet on the smaller side. here he's not callling any missed draws either way, so what's he goin to call a pair of Q/T usually, your bet seems good, maybe a bit smaller

He has a J here a LOT of the time, so I think betting turn is bad when I may be drawing to 4 outs. He will call river with a str8 here too.

well, you're either bet sizing so a jack can call or so that a pair can call

your bet sizing here is trying to entice AQ to call

let's see his range:
AT+, KJ+, TT+
since he raised preflop and his preflop stats are not that aggressive, we can assign him a pretty narrow range

if he has KQ/AQ/KK/AA we like the smaller bet
if he has AJ/KJ/JJ we like a larger bet
if he has TT/QQ we like a smaller bet

but given the action, we can exclude TT/QQ since he would be afraid of checking the river through since you didn't show any aggression on the turn

so... it seems if he calls with a pair there despite the four straight board a smaller bet like yours is in order
if he doesn't call that smaller bet with a pair, then a bigger bet like $120 is in order

I dont think a J is that much of his range, he raises 7% of hands, so more likely to be a Q or overpair i think

if we're going to call a bet on the river on a blank i think we should b/f the turn.

Originally Posted by cardsman1992

Originally Posted by wakeup

id bet the turn, plenty of value vs the donk

river value is a guess, i usually bet on the smaller side. here he's not callling any missed draws either way, so what's he goin to call a pair of Q/T usually, your bet seems good, maybe a bit smaller

He has a J here a LOT of the time, so I think betting turn is bad when I may be drawing to 4 outs. He will call river with a str8 here too.

I don't think he has a straight too much here.

Doubtful he's aware enough that the paired river is bad for him, so he has to be slowplaying (not unlikely) for him to have a straight.

As I played the hand, I put his most likely holdings at the turn:

Some hand with a J.
Top pair type hands
Flush draw
2 pair hands

JJ/AJ/QJ/KJ/JT all are in his range.

I had few enough hands on him where I didn't have total confidence of the PFR yet....

So my goal was to get a call from any J, because I figure my hand was well hidden and he likely is thinking he split with me.

If he calls with a one or two pair hand, then great. I just don't think he would.

Originally Posted by cardsman1992

So my goal was to get a call from any J, because I figure my hand was well hidden and he likely is thinking he split with me.

If he calls with a one or two pair hand, then great. I just don't think he would.

It's not a big deal, but IMO you're giving him credit for waaaaay too much thinking. 44/7/2 calls this river with 2p 100% imo.

I'd probably jsut bet closer to pot on the river, he's not calling $85 much less than $60 probably so $85 probably has better EV.

I play this the same.