Rivered nut flush oop

Villain is a fish. Hasn't folded to any of my c-bets, but usually folds the turn or river. The one pot he's won from me he called my flop c-bet and open-pushed the turn for pot and a half. Stats are 41/7/1.5 over 200+ hands.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $0.50/$1 - 9 players Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $65.95
UTG+1: $105.70
MP1: $209.55
MP2: $49.50
MP3: $16.10
CO: $60
Button: $72.40
Hero: $129
BB: $95

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with A 7
2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, Hero calls, BB (poster) checks.

Flop: 3 K 4 ($5, 5 players)
Hero bets $4, BB calls, 3 folds.

Turn: 2 ($13, 2 players)
Hero bets $10, BB calls.

River: Q ($33, 2 players)
Hero ???

Bet. He likely calls with more hands than he bets with and unless he's a total moron he's not going to call a check-raise.

bet 16

Originally Posted by nutsinho

bet 16

i agree. bet anywhere between 10 and 25. 16 is good.

*double post*

I bet 30 and pray that he has the Jc or that he'll take the old "there's no way he'd bet that much with the nuts, I'm gonna push him off it" line. In the rare cases he does raise, I think a min-3bet is in order.

My decision would probably be affected by how large bets he has folded to on the turn/river previously.

my first instinct was to over-bet push.

you could think, think.. push. probably will fold but someone may call enough times that overall you make more $$.

I bet $20, he called and showed 9c9x. No one likes a c/r here? Make it look like I'm scared of the fourth club? Given villain's propensity for chasing draws, I was pretty sure he made a flush on the river.

only checkraise if the K and Q aren't out

since they aren't, valuebetting is the only viable option

Originally Posted by Renton

only checkraise if the K and Q aren't out

Please to splain... you don't think he's betting his flush on the river here?

betting with a 9? Maybe, possibly not.

Betting and calling a raise with a 9? Not unless he's real real bad. You said he's a fish, but I think even a fish would fold this. Also, fish aren't generally very aggressive, so checkraises tend to suck vs them anyway.

Also, if he doesn't have a club there are still lots of hands that fish call with on this river. Straights, sets, KQ and perhaps even lower two-pairs are all candidates for a call followed by a "omfg rivered again" chatbox comment. Few of these hands will bet, though, and none will call a raise.

the only value in checking comes from aggro players bluffing the flush at us.

Originally Posted by Renton

Betting and calling a raise with a 9? Not unless he's real real bad. You said he's a fish, but I think even a fish would fold this. Also, fish aren't generally very aggressive, so checkraises tend to suck vs them anyway.

Good points.

Originally Posted by HalvSame

the only value in checking comes from aggro players bluffing the flush at us.

I disagree. There are hands passive, bad players will just call a river bet with but will bet if checked to and call a river c/r with. Not sure the fourth nut flush is one of those hands though.

halvsame, fourflush boards where we have the ace are very often great spots for c/ring the river, particularly when we put them on the King or Queen. See some gabe hand in highstakes for a good example. I think the thread was called "5/10 river check with nuts" or something like that.

NLHE T&P has a good section on river c/r's too.

I would bet half to 2/3 pot. I don't think he bets if checked to.

Don't get me wrong, i'm not saying that we should never c/r the river (although my pt database shows me that is not in my arsenal yet :P). But on this particular hand, after smooth calling flop and turn, I just don't see villain betting the river. If he has a somewhat strong hand I think he'd have raised somewhere earlier.

I'm gonna look up that thread, and I've started reading NLTAP so I expect to come across that chapter soon . (Yeah, I should have gotten the book earlier.)