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(Beginner warning)
Fnord's 'if he plays AKo this way' range includes AQs, which initially makes me want to contest that assumption. And then I think about what Villain has seen.
Villain has seen Hero call a standard raise, call a 3-bet, and min-raise a half-pot bet to just below pot on the flop. How does Villain read Hero? I think possibly weak. Or monstrously strong and slow played.
Villains flop 3bet is to 2.5x the previous bet and I can't help but think about bet sizing. It feels to me like Villain from the flop is trying to maximise value, and I would tend to polarize his range towards JJ and AA. It is possible that he's pouncing on perceived weakness with AK or AQs in the flop 3bet, but not so much on the turn AI. Hero's flop call has some measure of reluctance to it, but he does call, and he would have to understand that AI on turn with AK or AQs is a bluff.
In my noob estimate he would in some situations with AK or AQs 1) not have 3bet the flop and 2) not have gone AI on the turn where he would do it 100% of the time with AA, JJ and AJ. To pull numbers out of thin air maybe he has AA (1), JJ (3), AJ (6) 70% of the time and AKs (2), AKo (8), AQs (2) 30% of the time. (this means that he'd only play AKs, AKo or AQs this way on average 5/14 of the time)
Edit note: Is 99 definitely out of his pre-flop 3bet range?
Edit note 2: Ok, so I listed AJ instead of AJs which was in Fnord's listed range. Ehm.. my ratios are completely off - polarization comment and general observations may still be valid.
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