set o jacks bu vs blind vs decent ftr reg 50nl

ok, villain in both of these hands is decent and i have him at around 15-12-6, he probably has me at something like 18-12 but knows who i am and probably thinks i'm a little more solid than my preflop stats may suggest? He may consider me too loose pre and too nitty post. He has pretty standard fold to c-bet (around 60%) and high c-bet.

hand 1 i'm posting to assist in reads, any comments of course welcome

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($65.05)
UTG ($37)
UTG+1 ($68.90)
MP1 ($50)
Hero (MP2) ($53.30)
CO ($64.15)
Button ($38.55)
SB ($50)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, 10
3 folds, Hero bets $1.75, 2 folds, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($4) J, Q, 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB calls $3

Turn: ($10) 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($10) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $10 | Rake: $0.50

Results below:
SB had 9, 8 (one pair, eights).
Hero had A, 10 (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won $9.50

hand 2:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($64.30)
UTG+1 ($32.75)
MP1 ($67.40)
MP2 ($53.85)
Hero (CO) ($58.80)
Button ($61.65)
SB ($41.30)
BB ($50.75)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J, J
4 folds, Hero bets $1.75, 2 folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75) 3, J, 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BB calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.75) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7, BB calls $7

River: ($22.75) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, hero has to bet right? but how big?

WARNING N00B ADVICE INCOMING

His stats seem to indicate that hes not super loose so i dont think hes calling with many suited connectors that have any gaps or junk like Axo.

So for hands that beat us, 54s, 65s, A5s, and 55 are all i can really think off. Based on flop play, i cant see a5 really at all, so we're left with 54s, 65s, and 55 keeping in mind that 55 and 45s arent always calling the flop.

Hands we beat though, he'll show up with 33,44,22, and 66 occasionally, as well as 43s , 32s, and some hands like TT-77.

That seems like enough to make me want to bet here for like 16ish, but i dont think hes gonna raise with anything but hands we lose too....so

B/f 16?

2 options

- b/c $14ish if you think he will turn TT-77 into a bluff here. It may seem like that's not a large part of his range to try and maximise value from but for a lot of 15/12 players that's a pretty major part of the defending range.

- shove. I don't like this so much since you raised CO and have a lot of 5s in your range, and your image is nitty. But as I said I think you have the best hand so much that this is definitely decent and he may even level himself/hero call if he sucks. I also think you rep Ax a fair bit by shoving.

If you had raised from MP I think I would prefer shoving because you would have less 5s in your range. It's close between those two options though imo.

I don't know a single player at that level capable of turning a value hand on the turn into a bluff on the river... because people still don't b/f rivers enough. Certainly not somebody who c/calls down one hundred million outs OOP.
You need to bet something that gets called by underpairs. If he only calls with Jx and when you're beat, you're better off checking ldo.
I'd bet $7.5 - you're not getting bluffraised and he'll look you up out of curiosity.

Shoving the river is a bad option if villain knows daven imo.

I'd just b/f a size you'd commonly use like 14-15 and expect him to hero call 88 99 etc way more often than he turns them into bluffs. Since he's seen you checktop pair in a thin value river spot before he might even decide you aren't betting a ton of Qx here for value and level himself into a call with a fairly wide range. 14.5 ftw, ez game.

$18/fold i think

yeah i def overthought this one...

Originally Posted by JKDS

WARNING N00B ADVICE INCOMING

B/f 16?

seems to be the consensus, no need for the noob preface any more. Your reasoning is sound, and the conclusion. Just post!~

Ha

Ok, why are we bet folding? Do we really expect villain to show up with 5x here that often? I completely agree with badgers' post in that he can only really get 5x to river with 55 and 45s. I just don't see any real merit in bet/folding, when we hold the virtual nuts except vs like at worst, 9 combos, and villain can easily shove over with 22, 33, 44, 66 (if he gets to the river with 55, he can get there with all of these except for maybe 22)

That's 12 combos that we beat when he shoves (9 if you take out 22), and we lose to 9 combos of 45s and 55. If he is capable of turning 77-TT into a bluff, its a snapcall, and the 6 could easily be perceived as a scarecard for our range since we can have 22-44, 66 ourselves.

Please feel free to pick apart where I'm wrong.

YES dranger. Also, if he's an FTRer and knows you are too there'll be some sort of dynamic going. Don't fold!

Also, I don't think many players are going to defend 45s. That leaves 6 combos...

hi5

You would need a solid read to do anything different, because b/f >>> b/c against 98% percent of 50nl regs

The guy he's playing is an FTR reg and typically playing against fellow FTR ppl I play quite a bit differently than I would vs another reg, just sayin.

And did you read my post above badgers? Pick that apart for me please, and prove to me why b/f is better than b/c.

Originally Posted by dranger7070

Ok, why are we bet folding? Do we really expect villain to show up with 5x here that often? I completely agree with badgers' post in that he can only really get 5x to river with 55 and 45s. I just don't see any real merit in bet/folding, when we hold the virtual nuts except vs like at worst, 9 combos, and villain can easily shove over with 22, 33, 44, 66 (if he gets to the river with 55, he can get there with all of these except for maybe 22)

That's 12 combos that we beat when he shoves (9 if you take out 22), and we lose to 9 combos of 45s and 55. If he is capable of turning 77-TT into a bluff, its a snapcall, and the 6 could easily be perceived as a scarecard for our range since we can have 22-44, 66 ourselves.

Please feel free to pick apart where I'm wrong.

-and villain can easily shove over with 22, 33, 44, 66 = fantasy land, I think I've seen check-call, check-call, check-shove with a low set on a 4-straight board from a reg exactly never in about 2 million hands.

-If he is capable of turning 77-TT into a bluff = fantasy land except vs very few villains, and you should know who they are

-and the 6 could easily be perceived as a scarecard for our range since we can have 22-44, 66 ourselves = silly, he needs to 1)have a hand that needs to be turned into a bluff, 2)have a read on us that we will fold a strong hand to a shove when he will be repping very few combos, and 3)have the stones to pull that off. He'd also be bluffing into a guy who could very easily have the nuts.

If villain shoves, barring the few villains who you should have reads on, he will have 5x an overwhelming % of the time.

Completely disagree, but ok.