Set Trouble

Villain is new at table, less than 5 hands since his arrival so no reads. Hero stats for session 14/11 over 50ish hands, not been out of line, only gone to showdown with the goods so far.

I think Villains passive c/call line on flop/turn usually means he's chasing the FD here. Or possibly slow playing a set of 6s/Ts. How often is villain shoving this river with less than a set/flush? Is this an easy fold with bottom set, or is villain just as likely bluffing that he hit the flush and has something like KT or worse?

PokerStars Game #18678515411: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/07/08 - 17:29:20 (ET)
Table 'Fricke' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: steez38 ($27.75 in chips)
Seat 2: timmyd305 ($7.05 in chips)
Seat 3: serif13 ($14.65 in chips)
Seat 4: Gloubiboulga ($21.30 in chips)
Seat 7: KILR MILR11 ($16.45 in chips)
Seat 8: temmikongi ($24.65 in chips)
Seat 9: LordVFR ($33.40 in chips)
serif13: posts small blind $0.10
Gloubiboulga: posts big blind $0.25
gustav1234: sits out
afterchrist: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to LordVFR [4c 4s]
KILR MILR11: folds
temmikongi: folds
LordVFR: raises $0.75 to $1
steez38: folds
timmyd305: folds
serif13: calls $0.90
Gloubiboulga: folds
*** FLOP *** [6c Kd Tc]
serif13: checks
LordVFR: bets $1
serif13: calls $1
*** TURN *** [6c Kd Tc] [4d]
serif13: checks
LordVFR: bets $2.75
serif13: calls $2.75
*** RIVER *** [6c Kd Tc 4d] [3c]
serif13: bets $9.90 and is all-in
Hero????

BTW, I know flop cbet too small, was running out of time as multi tabling and misclicked the bet slider.

im not folding

What's worse than the cbet on the flop is the turn bet.

I'm folding this, std line from flush chasing donk

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

What's worse than the cbet on the flop is the turn bet.

this, there shouldn't really be a decision on the river cos you'll have got so much of his monies in on earlier streets.

instacall

Originally Posted by badgers

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

What's worse than the cbet on the flop is the turn bet.

this, there shouldn't really be a decision on the river cos you'll have got so much of his monies in on earlier streets.

As played the turn bet was 2/3 psb, is this too low for a turn bet? I usually vary them between 1/2 and PSB to mix things up, sometimes overbetting if I'm sure the villain will likely call. As I had no history on this villain I didn't want to blow him off the hand if he was behind, so betting 2/3 pot didn't allow him odds to draw.

Anyhoo, what I'm really looking for is how often, in forum members experience is villains line a FD, a slowplayed set, pair/2pair or a complete bluff? Or something really retarded like 33? In my experience its a rivered flush a very large percentage of the time in this spot.

1/2 is definitly too small on the turn. If you want to vary them(which is unnecessary at 25NL) then you need to vary them between 2/3rds and PSB. When the board is this drawy you must bet 3/4th or more of the pot. As played I think I fold because you have to be ahead more than half the time for a call to be correct. I don't think that you are. QJ does make this play though as do some bad players with two pair who just dont want to let it go(makes no sense I know but I find they do this a good bit).

Note for those of you who don't know me: I generally play $200NL to $600NL(sometimes $1000NL) so I dont have a lot of experience at this limit.

Originally Posted by LordVTR

Originally Posted by badgers

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

What's worse than the cbet on the flop is the turn bet.

this, there shouldn't really be a decision on the river cos you'll have got so much of his monies in on earlier streets.

As played the turn bet was 2/3 psb, is this too low for a turn bet? I usually vary them between 1/2 and PSB to mix things up, sometimes overbetting if I'm sure the villain will likely call. As I had no history on this villain I didn't want to blow him off the hand if he was behind, so betting 2/3 pot didn't allow him odds to draw.

Anyhoo, what I'm really looking for is how often, in forum members experience is villains line a FD, a slowplayed set, pair/2pair or a complete bluff? Or something really retarded like 33? In my experience its a rivered flush a very large percentage of the time in this spot.

It's the flush a lot. I think it's neutralish, and I'd rather call than fold.

in my experience, its highly likely that he made river flush but i'm still hard pressed to fold my set.

Originally Posted by LordVTR

Originally Posted by badgers

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

What's worse than the cbet on the flop is the turn bet.

this, there shouldn't really be a decision on the river cos you'll have got so much of his monies in on earlier streets.

Anyhoo, what I'm really looking for is how often, in forum members experience is villains line a FD, a slowplayed set, pair/2pair or a complete bluff? Or something really retarded like 33? In my experience its a rivered flush a very large percentage of the time in this spot.

If villain was on a flush draw, this is exactly the line they would take. The only reason I see any villain shoving this river is if they either: Improved their hand on the river, or it's a bluff attempt at repping the flush.

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

Originally Posted by LordVTR

Originally Posted by badgers

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

What's worse than the cbet on the flop is the turn bet.

this, there shouldn't really be a decision on the river cos you'll have got so much of his monies in on earlier streets.

Anyhoo, what I'm really looking for is how often, in forum members experience is villains line a FD, a slowplayed set, pair/2pair or a complete bluff? Or something really retarded like 33? In my experience its a rivered flush a very large percentage of the time in this spot.

If villain was on a flush draw, this is exactly the line they would take. The only reason I see any villain shoving this river is if they either: Improved their hand on the river, or it's a bluff attempt at repping the flush.

I'd say it's 80/20 favoring the made

Thanks for the feedback all. I figured it was too likely he hit the flush and folded. Have noticed often at this level that villains often take this line and shove the river when the flush draw misses and when called show something retarded like J3s.

Points regarding bet sizing appreciated too.