set vs. ?

***** Hand History for Game 2447535253 *****
$100 NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, July 30, 03:28:16 EDT 2005
Table Table 36576 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Wahoo2006 ( $211.60 )
Seat 2: Bonds_MVP ( $617.36 )
Seat 9: Utrookie ( $97.61 )
Seat 10: if7ate9D8J ( $336.75 )
Seat 3: dhlmd ( $84.80 )
Seat 6: carddeck ( $94.05 )
Seat 4: BlackSuitWT ( $140.70 )
Seat 7: oldfashion ( $108.50 )
Seat 5: MrJay5 ( $82 )
Seat 8: jdb4_4 ( $99.25 )
if7ate9D8J posts small blind [$0.50].
Wahoo2006 posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Wahoo2006 [ 3c 3d ]
Bonds_MVP calls [$1].
dhlmd calls [$1].
BlackSuitWT folds.
MrJay5 folds.
carddeck folds.
oldfashion raises [$8].
jdb4_4 folds.
Utrookie folds.
if7ate9D8J folds.
Wahoo2006 calls [$7].
Bonds_MVP folds.
dhlmd folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Th, Qc, 7c ]
Wahoo2006 checks.
oldfashion checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3h ]
Wahoo2006 checks.
Bonds_MVP: but honestly.., it has to be a riddle.., no??
oldfashion bets [$3].
Wahoo2006 calls [$3].
** Dealing River ** [ 4d ]
Wahoo2006 bets [$10].
oldfashion raises [$45].
Wahoo2006 ?

ok, two things. First, should I have raised the turn? Second, what now?

raise the turn, push the river, looks like an overpair or AK bluff.

The only possible holding he can have that beats you is a higher set, no straight or flush possibilities are out there. QQ is a real possibility for his holding, though I'm still calling that river. Yeah, a turn raise wouldn't have been a bad move IMO.

PFR of 8, turn bet of 3? TT or QQ or AQ bet the flop with the flush draw out there... it's an AK bluff. Push

And bet that turn

First, it may be a good idea to fold 33 to an 8xBB raise, hard to say.

Bet the turn.. there is a flush draw and straight draw on the board, you have bottom set.. at least 1/2 pot size here.

I assume your opponent doesnt raise the nuts, 56, to 8xBB from middle position. As it was played out, I think I just call the river. This really looks like an AK bluff, and if it is, pushing accomplishes nothing. You are beat by 56, QQ, TT, 77, and 44. A badly misplayed QQ being a real possibility.

- Lukie

Yes, definately raise that turn. And I think he has QQ here. He seems like he's trying to start building up the pot here since you weren't trying to bluff on his flop check. When he saw you were in he went hard. Unless this is a total bluff, but this looks to be how someone would be playing after flopping the queen set.

On the turn:
Raise the turn big, and if calls put him all in on the river.

On the river:
I push.. laying down a lower set to a higher set 1-on-1 is -EV in my opinion, espically with no straights or flushes possible. Mayyybe you can lay down top two, but laying down a set is just preposterious.

I agree with spino1i, the old gamblers quote is "if you don't go broke with a set, you played it wrong"

Yeah I changed my mind after a bit of sleep and looked at this again with a fresh mind. Set vs set is fluke and unless you have a clear read on this guy like TAgg and you know he wouldn't be playing this without a made hand, it looks more like a missed straight draw if he's someone that values his AK that much preflop. I still would raise the turn big though.

so what happened?

lollerskates at this hand.

Check/calling after hitting your set on an apparently harmless turn against a draw heavy board.

Even entertaining the thought that you're beat on this river.

Just lollerskates all around.

-'rilla

raise the turn...even a minimum raise helps here.

Call that bet. If he has a set...well crap. I think he has top two pair.

He probably has something IE: AA, KK, you have him beat you can't lay this down

Draw heavy board? Rilla?

The types of hands he has are very few. AK AA KK QQ JJ. If the action were different then we could consider all the possible straight draws, but it isn't. I'm check calling the turn because a check raise is going to raise so many red flags. If he has QQ, then your screwed, if he has any other holdings your a mile ahead and it is possible he is drawing dead.

I fold preflop, check call the turn, lead on the river. Reraise all in if he raises. If he has QQ congradulate him, if not, then stack his chips.

The result of this was that I folded. i was going to try to explain myself more fully, but the only comments i'll make are A. it had to do with being slightly scared money at that moment. B. i just got a strong feeling off the flop check that he had a set C. the turn was draw heavy my ass. the way he played that is only consistent with QQ IMO, and although i do agree folding was -EV and I shouldn't do it again, I think this is a lot higher variance move than most of you admit to.

please tell me u didnt fold a set to a pot sized raise....

next you will be folding KK pre because "the way he played it is only consistent with AA"

no way in hell you lay this down...only thing that beats you is a higher set that he was pretty much slow playing as well...or the lucky river strait...i call or even re-raise that... let us know what happened

Originally Posted by Fleece

please tell me u didnt fold a set to a pot sized raise....

next you will be folding KK pre because "the way he played it is only consistent with AA"

as i said before, i folded mainly because i was on a good run, and didn't want the mental downer of possibly losing a pot. looking back, it was a bad fold, though i am still at least 25% + sure that I was beaten. This guy was not tricky and liked to overbet his good hands. but i still give you congratulations on your useless post.

OK...
so you're saying you called on the turn because you were trapping (not wanting to raise red flags)
and then you fold the river when a blank comes?

You need to start THINKING

you either fold at the turn (STILL WRONG)
or you push at the river

what the hell, man
you called his bet ONLY to catch a set
ONLY TO CATCH A SET

Now you fold when he's value betting a pocket pair or bluffing AK?

So what are you waiting for? Quads? Or will you fold when you're 1% sure that he has a straight flush?

Plus, NEVER FOLD if you think you're over 50% to win the hand

Or, how about you just never fold a set? That's a good rule. Until you get good you can't break it. Now when you play a couple hundred thousand hands and you feel strongly like you're beat from your AWESOME experience, then MAYBE MAYBE you can lay the bottom set down.

Not now though. YOU ARE NOT READY TO LAY DOWN A SET. It will be -EV.

EDIT: stop it with the pansy "I was up" crap
if you're up and you don't feel you can psychologically take losing a bunch of money, STOP PLAYING
Then bitch-slap yourself for being such a pansy
If you can't take big swings, why not just play limit?

I think you made a good decision. A non continuation after a huge preflop raise when a flop is coordinating means trouble with a pot that large already. That almost always means he hit the flop very hard and feels the only action he will get is by checking.

If he has AK, he's going to continue regardless of the flop because he represented strength and wants to take it down before more cards come that could make you stay in the pot. He doesn't have AK. AK doesn't check a flop and then explode over the top unimproved when an opponent lights up the pot on the river. AK acts strong early and folds there (on the river), or bluffs to a check. You showed strength. He found the action he was hoping for.

If he has AA he bets the flop for some amount with coordination showing. I don't think he has AA. The board is coordinated, and there's already more than 16 dollars in the pot. Do you think he's gonna screw around with an AA slowplay on a straight and flush coordinating board? I don't think so. He's gonna punch it.

I believe he has trip T's, because he was trying to take it down without a flop. He was afraid to see a flop with an 8x preflop raise. AA or KK doesn't do this. Both these hands beg for action at a .25/.50 table. They don't try to scare you out. They want you in. QQ is similar. Often QQ wants a little action too. The three highest pockets will only bet that strong preflop when there's a raise before them. Honestly, I see JJ and TT doing this. he hit his higher set, and was hoping for some action. When you took the wheel on the river, he was like "Alright, I'm getting paid for my big hand!"

The real thing to consider here is how this player has been playing previous to this hand. If he hasn't gone nuts for no reason before, then why now? Why did he explode preflop and then just check after the flop? If you're representing, then you're representing. You don't change your mind when a flop comes out. If you act that strong preflop you continue to do so postflop until someone tells you you're beat. You just do. You don't act fast and furious and then slam on the breaks unless the flop came out and you went "ooooo yaaaa, now how do I get the most out of this?"

I don't seew hy everyone's giving him such a hard time about this fold. I'm undecided on whether it's a Q set or a missed straight draw bluff, however, with the proper reads on this guy I'm sure it can be decided. The two players that will play these two different hands will be very easy to spot. A tight player will play the set like so, and a looser player will play the draw like so.

A set is not the hand of god to strike guys down with. And while it may be +EV to play them out why is it a bad play to fold it if you're confident in your read of the opponent? Reads are still permitted to be used on opponents when you're holding a set aren't they? In a situation like this I think the fold is a perfectly fine play if you can read your opponent.

Now I'm not saying fold sets every time you get a funny feeling. Hardly ever fold sets! But this IMO is one of those situations that deserves some second thoughts...

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

lollerskates at this hand.

Check/calling after hitting your set on an apparently harmless turn against a draw heavy board.

Even entertaining the thought that you're beat on this river.

Just lollerskates all around.

-'rilla

lollerskates indeed.


push the river.