sexy play of the day....discuss

Bodog 1/2 NL
Loose table. Assume 100bb stacks.
I limp behind 2 limpers in MP with KQo. A couple more limp behind, then SB makes in 9 to go. One call ahead, I call, One more calls behind. Let's say 40$ and 4 players to the flop of: Jd Js 6d.
SB (PFR) checks and we all follow. Turn : Jd Js 6d (Kc).
Sb bets 16. I call, rest fold.
River : Jd Js 6d Kc (5d). Sb bets 21, I make it 70...

Thoughts?

nah just call

your valuebetting Kx? uhhh too little value.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

your valuebetting Kx? uhhh too little value.

oh my god no

WTF, he has AK 100% of the time. I think calling the river is actually kind of awful. I like the idea of this play but in my experience most players snap call a raise with every hand that they feel is good enough to bet the river with. I don't think an average player folds AK often enough for this to be +EV but in the right situation I love the play.

Originally Posted by mcatdog

WTF, he has AK 100% of the time. I think calling the river is actually kind of awful. I like the idea of this play but in my experience most players snap call a raise with every hand that they feel is good enough to bet the river with. I don't think an average player folds AK often enough for this to be +EV but in the right situation I love the play.

my thoughts exactly about having AK 100% of the time after his turn/river bets. I thought an average player is actually going to find a fold here with the flush coming in and the likelihood of a jack being out there when 3 others saw the flop.

You're making up for the substantial % of the time that you have the worst hand by telling hin you have a J (perfect J line) and making him fold a substantial % of the time.

Correct?

Well i think whether you should just call or raise depends on what you think you can get him to fold that you are losing/tieing. I think it's probably AK and KQ, and i think those hands are very likely. I think your raise as a bluff is good because of the very high chance he has one of those hands.

Nice Read.

doesnt calling achieve this cheaper?

The biggest question here, is does he still call?

That's the problem with river raises, you're giving him an exact price to showdown his hand. Raising the turn has better implied threat.

I like the raise 75% of the time

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

doesnt calling achieve this cheaper?

I have KQ, not AK, and by the river I'm convinced he has AK almost every time, with maybe KQs at 10% and AA at 5%.

Originally Posted by nutsinho

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

doesnt calling achieve this cheaper?

I have KQ, not AK, and by the river I'm convinced he has AK almost every time, with maybe KQs at 10% and AA at 5%.

my only problem with it is that AK calls any river bet 100% of the time, even a push and particulalry on bodog IMO (im open to a disagreement on that) yet we get paid with this line with a jack or boat. Are we trying to check the river behind or bluff it with a pot sized bet.
Im stuck between this being spewage or a really good play against players who wont comprehend it. Away from bodog i love it i think.

i don't like the idea of counting on a bodog lowstakes player to lay down TPTK

also, putting an unknown squarely on AK here is dreadfully wrong