Simple pre-flop problem

$100 NL
You open UTGish with A K for $3

Folded to the table Nit. He has a PFR less than 5% and re-raises to $9 from MP or LP. Our table image is fairly aggro, we've been raising a lot (10-12%), mostly in position.

Folded to you.

What's your play and plan for the rest of the hand?

With PFR that low I'm playing for diamonds or the straight at that point.

Call and lead out the flop with 1/2 pot to see how he reacts. Hopefully you hit a scary enough flop for him.

Since you've already raised UTG, might as well call and play for TPTK +. If you're gonna fold TPTK then there's no reason to Call the preflop raise anyway because you won't have nearly the implied odds. I don't like popping because against such a tight PFR range it's -EV.

That's why I limp UTG with AK. You're out of position and screwed when someone reraises.

Minimize the pot when you're not sure if you're ahead.

Originally Posted by Fnord

$100 NL
You open UTGish with A K for $3

Folded to the table Nit. He has a PFR less than 5% and re-raises to $9 from MP or LP. Our table image is fairly aggro, we've been raising a lot (10-12%), mostly in position.

Folded to you.

What's your play and plan for the rest of the hand?

I'm looking at this as a potential problem on the flop. Your Nit is representing a premium hand so if there is an Ace or King on the flop I really wouldn't know where I stood, however I'd have a good idea of what he holds so I could get away from the hand easily. After all I'm UTG and putting in a solid raise indicating I'm looking down on two good cards and the PFR<5% is telling me he thinks his are better than mine.

I'm definately calling for the flop and if there is a diamond/straight draw I'll chase as cheaply as possible (check/call), however anything else and I'm check/folding.

One thing that I'm starting to pay more attention to is the quality of the raise. Often UTG or first in are considered raising/folding positions so that would affect the stat of how often someone is a PFR since some do it by rote. So in this situation I'd have even more confidence in the person holding a monster if they broke their pattern of play by raising here.

I call the raise and look for a flush/straight opportunities. Opp is reraising only with AA/KK and maybe QQ here.

Originally Posted by LeFou

With PFR that low I'm playing for diamonds or the straight at that point.

Is $6 the right price to do this (or any of the other replies)?

I say call and look for a ace rags board (if you hit that ace, it is unlikely for him to have AA) or straight/flush draw boards.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by LeFou

With PFR that low I'm playing for diamonds or the straight at that point.

Is $6 the right price to do this (or any of the other replies)?

If he raised to 9 than if my math is right you are getting 6-1 odds by calling the $1.50, no? Or did he raise $9 so there is now $13.50 in the pot? If that's the case I'm folding pre-flop here. The only way I see calling is that he made it pretty obvious what he has so you're gambling on a flop that breaks him.

9 flat, 6 more to go.

Depending on the type of player he is, he may be aware enough to realize that you have been raising with inferior cards and its not that he has a great hand but that your play induced him to make a move on you. What does the 5%pfr mean?(AA-JJ) and Ak-AQ) with the aq being suited. I think mathematically you should dump it, but if he is that tight you may be able to outplay him on the flop. Lastly, do you trust yourself to dump it even when the flop comes ace high or king high? If you can do it, than go for it.

Fold.. there is no reason to play AKs to a reraise from a very tight player when you are out of position the rest of the hand. To the person/people saying to call to chase the flush, give me a break. That flush draw is going to hit 1 in 8 times and even if it does, villain is almost certainly going to be jamming the flop giving you horrible odds to draw.

What is a tight player reraising here?

Is there any flop where you hit where you are going to get paid off?

Is there any flop where you hit and are going to pay your opponent off?

I fold. I am very likely behind here and may have to make a tough decision on the flop. I don't wanna play the rest of the hand out of position. I can't get away from this hand for only $3 and pick a better spot. I don't make this laydown against all players but someone so tight comming over the top I'm folding here.

I think I agree with the fold. I'd almost rather call with 9Ts than AKs - it opens up other possibilities for post-flop play, at least. I'd certainly rather call with about any pocket pair and play for set value. It seems like he's only making that re-raise with three or so hands, and the majority of them have you over a barrel. If he was any looser or the re-raise any smaller, you'd have a much better argument for a call-and-see.

Originally Posted by Lukie

To the person/people saying to call to chase the flush, give me a break. That flush draw is going to hit 1 in 8 times

This is true, but you add the flops w/2 broadway cards. In addition to the straight draw, one could make the opp worry about 2pair.

I also like edudlive's point about the likelihood that you're good if an A falls. Opp would need exactly 2 cards to be at all ahead.

Still undecided though. Calling is starting to seem weak.

The problem with the ace argument is that even if he doesn't have aces and all three of them are still in the deck, you're only going to flop an ace 16% of the time. 16% of the time you would flop a king if he doesn't have kings, but that leaves open the possibility that he has you beat with pocket aces, so the king doesn't make you half as happy. I don't really like calling a $6 re-raise for a 16% crack at an ace (and that's a best-case scenario - he has to not have aces) plus a 12% chance at a flush or flush draw. Any straight draw is just going to be a gutshot, so unless it combines with one of the above, it's not useful to you. If we say he'll only raise with AA/KK/QQ pre-flop, then it's 33% likely he has aces, which reduces your 16% ace possibility by a third - so let's say there's about a 23% chance that you'll either flop a flush, a flush draw or an ace, which are the only flops you really WANT to see with this hand. And then let's remember that the flush draw won't always turn into a flush, and that he'll almost certainly make you pay to draw - so IF you draw, you'll need to hit AND make him pay you off.

And then there's also the small but irritating possibility that you could flop an ace only to find out he DOES have aces - and even though it's unlikely, it will almost certainly cost you a large amount of money.

I'm not 100% on this, but maybe 75% sure that this is a fold.

just... can't.... fold... suited slick..... preflop.... in the ring...

sorry just can't....

(tourney might be a diff story)

he obviously thinks very highly of his hand, so if you do flop a monster, you may get a nice chunk of change out of him by playing it a little tricky... you also have the ability to out play him post flop if he is that much of a tighty... (rep a set or something...)

I call and hope for an ace (and no king or queen), diamond draw, or straight... if the ace does fall i pay off pocket aces, just cause the chances of it happening are kinda slim... If I don't hit the ace or some miracle draw, then oh well, just lost an additional $6, no big deal.

I also like what someone else said, if he is really that tight and sees you as pretty loose, then there is a *slight* possibility that he is reraising you with AQs, AK0, QQ, or JJ, and not just KK or AA.

I see more and more people leaning towards fold preflop, is my thinking flawed?

Not flawed exactly - I think you're just doing what most players would do, which is reaching for reasons to stay in. Let's put it another way: If you knew with 100% certainty he would only re-raise you with AA/KK/QQ; and you knew with 100% certainty that he would not fold these hands post-flop except to a board that was extremely threatening (a combination of three to a flush, paired, and/or three to a straight); and you knew you needed three diamonds or TJQ to win for *certain* - is calling here +EV or -EV? I would argue that given those conditions, it's not just -EV but CLEARLY -EV. Now of course real hands are never that certain; the issue at hand is how much you're willing to fudge what you think is the case to arrive at what lets you stay in with a clear conscience.

yeah i know, there aren't very many possibilites of a flop that I can feel really comfortable with... and if you put the 100% certainty thing in there then yeah, it's definitely -EV...

But given the table images of both you and your opponent, i would tend to slightly broaden his range of hands a little, and also give him credit to be able to fold to a huge re-raise bluff...

Maybe I'm just a little too Laggy in the ring... hell if the guy wasn't such a tight ass I'm very tempted to just go all-in preflop to gaurantee that I see all five cards... (only if my stack or his stack is kinda short...)

Originally Posted by dalecooper

Not flawed exactly - I think you're just doing what most players would do, which is reaching for reasons to stay in.

For what it's worth, I made this call recently and it set me back $50. Hence, this post.

I definitely think this is a fold. There is the slight possibility that opp is just playing back at you because you have been raising a lot but if he notices this is from UTGish then this is less likely. No way I am calling and playing for the flush because I would have to pay too much to draw. Of course, he makes this a habit I am going to have to pick a spot and play back but not here.