Simple river problem

Fishypoker.com 200NL $1/$2 blinds

Villian is loose/passive. Calls too much for no-limit, but not horrible.

I have $312
Villian has $224

I'm in MP with

Poster checks, Villian limps, I raise to $8, fishy calls, folded to the BB who calls, Villian calls.

5 to the flop for $38

checked to me and I bet $30, folded to the villian who calls.

heads-up to the turn for $98

villian checks, I bet $50, villian calls

heads-up to the river for $198

villian checks, I....

Make a medium-sized value bet.

bet and lose to A 6?

93 games 0.005 secs 18,600 games/sec

Board: Ah 4s 2s Td 6d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 54.8387 % [ 00.52 00.03 ] { AcQh }
Hand 2: 45.1613 % [ 00.42 00.03 ] { AA, 44, 22, AKs-A2s, AKo-A2o }

Tighten him up a bit and here is what you get...

48 games 0.005 secs 9,600 games/sec

Board: Ah 4s 2s Td 6d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 43.7500 % [ 00.38 00.06 ] { AcQh }
Hand 2: 56.2500 % [ 00.50 00.06 ] { AA, 44, 22, AKs-A2s, AKo-ATo }

What would 'rilla do?

Originally Posted by Fnord

What would 'rilla do?

'rilla would do his zest puzzle. I don't know how I missed this thread.

It *smells* like a weaker ace in call down mode. I think you can safely value bet the river.

Any raise and you're beat.

-'rilla

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

It *smells* like a weaker ace in call down mode. I think you can safely value bet the river.

Any raise and you're beat.

-'rilla

How much?

If you bet $50 into him, it's half his remaining stack and you're getting 5:1 calling a river raise.

I was initially thinking a bet of 30-40. Since he's a silly fish, I don't wanna give him a difficult decision. But even if you do lay out 50, you have to fold to a raise. You're almost certainly beat.

-'rilla

If you bet $30 on the river then you're betting considerably less than your turn bet into a pot double the size. Not afraid that this might be perceived as weakness and induce him to come over the top?

Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye

If you bet $30 on the river then you're betting considerably less than your turn bet into a pot double the size. Not afraid that this might be perceived as weakness and induce him to come over the top?

Not if he's a fishy...

A42T6

If this person was really chasing a flush there is no point in betting because they will most certainly not call it.

If this person has AJ, A9-3 then they will probably call a small value bet. But how likely is it that this person has A8-3? If they have AJ (could be), or A9 (less likely but feasible), then they will call a value bet from you.

If this person has AK, AQ, AT, A4, 44, 22, TT (could be) or A2 they will most certainly call a bet and quite possibly even raise you.

This person thinks you are going to bet on the river. They could easily be inducing a check-raise.

The pot is already big and with only 3 or 4 feasible hands that would call a river bet and a lot more that would stay in the pot and induce a check raise I would check behind.

This is why I think checking behind is the best idea.

i'm guessing he's either on a weaker ace or has made two pair and wants to go over the top of you. i think betting 50 here is good. fold to a raise.

Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye

If you bet $30 on the river then you're betting considerably less than your turn bet into a pot double the size. Not afraid that this might be perceived as weakness and induce him to come over the top?

He's super passive.

They don't river raise.

-'rilla

Originally Posted by ensign_lee

bet and lose to A 6?

Um. LOL.

-'rilla

Originally Posted by mcpeepants

A42T6

If this person was really chasing a flush there is no point in betting because they will most certainly not call it.

If this person has AJ, A9-3 then they will probably call a small value bet. But how likely is it that this person has A8-3? If they have AJ (could be), or A9 (less likely but feasible), then they will call a value bet from you.

If this person has AK, AQ, AT, A4, 44, 22, TT (could be) or A2 they will most certainly call a bet and quite possibly even raise you.

This person thinks you are going to bet on the river. They could easily be inducing a check-raise.

The pot is already big and with only 3 or 4 feasible hands that would call a river bet and a lot more that would stay in the pot and induce a check raise I would check behind.

This is why I think checking behind is the best idea.

If he has a weaker ace and has called down to this point, 30 more bucks shouldn't even be a problem for him.

You're overlooking the fact that he's a passive fish. So there are more than just a few feasible hands that would call a river bet.

Checking behind is fine. I just think he's got a good chance of extracting 30 more bucks from this guy.

-'rilla