Stack off or not to stack off - QQ 25NL

I just want to make sure I remember how to play these hands correctly. So my thinking goes as follows. Villain is complete unknown, so after his raise, my reraise, and his call, I put him on 88+, AQ+. I'm assuming hes a sstandard 25NL donk so I don't expect him to know I'm a thinking player. My flop bet could well be a c-bet so maybe 30% of the time this is a straight bluff, 70% of the time it 's JJ-AA, and the rest So on the flop it's essentially 18 dollars to me to win a 32 dollar pot, just less than 2 to 1 odds. Throw in some FE and its more like 3 to 1, and I think that merits a call. How is my tthinking?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP3 ($2)
CO ($50.50)
Button ($12.20)
SB ($51.70)
Hero ($25)
UTG ($21.55)
UTG+1 ($24.70)
MP1 ($51.10)
MP2 ($26.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, Q.
2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.75, 3 folds, Button calls $0.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3.25, MP1 calls $2.25, Button folds.

Flop: ($7.10) 8, J, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $5, MP1 raises to $15, Hero gets it all in?

hero folds

I would think that a 25nl villain would 4-bet preflop with KK+ since the button is left to act and villain is out of position. I think this because the typical 25nl villain is better than he/she used to be, which is a rant I could go on but now's not the time.

Villain's raise will commit you if you call, so if you're going to play you should just go ahead and get it all in. With that having been said, you're essentially being asked to bet about $17 to win about $33, which is 2:1 odds. I think villain could have 66, 88, 99-QQ, AK of spades, and the occasional bluff. There are three combinations of 66/88/JJ each, six of 99/TT each, and one of QQ/AK of spades. You are way behind nine, way ahead six, and about even with QQ/AK of spades. The times that he's a dumbass and has KK+ will be similar to the times that he's a dumbass and has AJ or is on a bluff and I don't think it's enough to throw this away from being a shove.

It's obviously not an omfg awesome spot but I think it's definitely +EV.

its a fold, i guess. Your hand can beat nothing but top pair and spades on this J high flop given villain's action and 3 bet pot preflop.

Yuck. Either choice is good, and I like making money so I push.

this guy could be beating you with a lot of hands Jxs 88 JJ 66 KK AA 7s5s 7s9s id lean towards folding here

Originally Posted by wylted

this guy could be beating you with a lot of hands Jxs 88 JJ 66 KK AA 7s5s 7s9s id lean towards folding here

I don't think we can put 75s or 97s in villain's range here. Also, we're not behind Jxs, even if it's AJs.

AA/KK are possible but I wouldn't expect a flat call to a 3-bet at 25nl. This leaves mostly sets which we're supposed to stack off against at 25nl.

if it's unprofitable to put a stack in with an overpair in a 3-bet pot against a standard 25NL donk, you need to switch sites immediately.

Originally Posted by pgil

if it's unprofitable to put a stack in with an overpair in a 3-bet pot against a standard 25NL donk, you need to switch sites immediately.

AA is a super easy shove here whereas QQ is probably a fold...your thinking is way too general

Originally Posted by pgil

if it's unprofitable to put a stack in with an overpair in a 3-bet pot against a standard 25NL donk, you need to switch sites immediately.

QFT