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Ok
Turn 6clubs (oh noes!)
River 3clubs (suckyouty?)
Opp shows AJclubs.
Busted.
Why did i play my hand like this and why do i think its right?
1. Preflop
I havent defended my blind at all yet before this hand, a 9bbs reraise says 'get the hell outta my pot' and it stinks of AA/KK/QQ (perhaps of a steal, which in fact it was) but you only call the reraise if you have implied odds to do so. Id suggst a range is any pp, but AA/KK/QQ perhaps also JJ/TT would have reraised or pushed preflop against my reraise here. As it stands, the button miniraise equals either a weak ace or a pp and as i noted i expected 77+ to be defended by a 4-6bbs raise anyway, in which case i wouldnt have played my blind.
2. Post flop
Firstly, no ace. That means im pretty sure my hand is the best. Any hand with the exception of QQ/JJ/99 that called preflop here did so at a long term loss imo. If opp shows QJ or KT i will laugh my tits off and know im making a shit load off the opp that calls a 9bbs reraise with eitehr of those hands. Period. I like people who want to play THAT sort of poker. They make me money.
But, as noted i think QQ/JJ push preflop so we can rule those out. Therefore i expect to ony be scared of 99 and a set here. Add to that the possibility of a pair and flush draw or Txclubs specifically are the only other hands that could have me smoked. Again, id argue in this pot if either of those hands are there its a long term losing play and i will benefit. So again, id be happy if opps show those hands. TT is a dog here against me with only 7 outs.
3. Pushing
Why? WildbobAA missed mcatdog's exellent point. Once the flop comes both opps have 40-50 behind with a 30~ flop pot. Therefore if i pot this flop i am committed to calling any turn bet as even if its a nightmare club i will be calling 20 into a sixty or perhaps 90 pot with the king of clubs and probably 7odd outs. In other words, with stack sizes i cant fold my hand. Therefore i simply push to save me the problem on later streets. Id have bet the pot and called a push too anyway. I simply decided that the range of hands that might want to gambOOl here were doing it for stacks because stack sizes demanded it.
4. The result
sb donk called. As it happens i was a .5% dog on the flop to win the hand. So we might ask my play was -ev as over the long run i lose money. Well is it really?
Consider my range preflop, stop looking at the board, and put everyone on a range. Thats why i said these guys sucked. Against a first blind defence from a tagg, where i didnt just bet $6into a $5 pot, i bet $9 into a $5 pot (big overbet for steal reasons but also becasue when i have a monster here aginst these donks i will overbet the same way to get them committed) sb calls 7bbs into a 18bbs pot at 2.5 to 1 with AJs. Losing long term play imo. I wouldnt lose a lot if i held QQ/KK here if an ace flopped. However, if a jack flops or an ace flops and i can beat a pair i guarentee sb loses his stack on all occasions. Therefore in a very real sense, sbs decision is just plain horrible.
As it turns out his flop call is good, but most times he is a 60/40 50/50 here and the only reason he called is BECAUSE HE HAD A FLUSH DRAW! not because he had any idea of how to think this hand out.
Therefore, my play is very defendable and i will continue to do it. I think sb is now my personal ATM, what do you think?
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